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Texas Is Too Windy and Sunny for Old Energy Companies to Make Money

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Re: Texas Is Too Windy and Sunny for Old Energy Companies to Make Money

#21

Post by skybrian »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #4
saryant wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Natural gas energy can be transported much more easily than solar or wind. As more export capacity comes online in the US I would expect natural gas projects in the US to continue apace even if domestic consumption stays flat or declines.

There are multiple transmission line projects in progress in the US to drag wind energy to major load centers. Solar can be produced anywhere of course. Natgas exports may increase, but it appears everyone is getting off of fossil asap. You cannot compete against an energy source with no fuel cost.

On the other hand, apparently [1] natural gas exports can be shifted to different markets faster than new solar power can come online? Not a bad thing if it replaces coal.

[1] U.S. LNG exports shift to Europe from Asia http://www.reuters.com/article/usa-asia-lng-idUSL1N1FE4BG

Re: Texas Is Too Windy and Sunny for Old Energy Companies to Make Money

#22

Post by refurb »

sizzzzlerz wrote: post #6

It's surprising that this is allowed to happen by the Texas GOP lege. I would have expected them to either outlaw outright or severely hamper wind farms and other renewable energy business in favor of their big oil benefactors. The resulting screwing of the energy consumers is, as always, an extra benefit.

Let's take a closer look at this. If you're surprised the GOP is allowing this, then something about your assumptions are wrong.

Either you're incorrectly assuming the GOP would actively legislate against wind farms or something else is happening.

What do you think is the mostly likely explanation?

Re: Texas Is Too Windy and Sunny for Old Energy Companies to Make Money

#23

Post by saryant »

skybrian wrote: post #21
toomuchtodo wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are multiple transmission line projects in progress in the US to drag wind energy to major load centers. Solar can be produced anywhere of course. Natgas exports may increase, but it appears everyone is getting off of fossil asap. You cannot compete against an energy source with no fuel cost.

On the other hand, apparently [1] natural gas exports can be shifted to different markets faster than new solar power can come online? Not a bad thing if it replaces coal. [1] U.S. LNG exports shift to Europe from Asia http://www.reuters.com/article/usa-asia-lng-idUSL1N1FE4BG

This is exactly what I was referring to. LNG can be shifted across markets in a matter of days. Solar and wind don't have that flexibility.

Re: Texas Is Too Windy and Sunny for Old Energy Companies to Make Money

#24

Post by alphydan »

majewsky wrote: post #5
toomuchtodo wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are multiple transmission line projects in progress in the US to drag wind energy to major load centers. Solar can be produced anywhere of course. Natgas exports may increase, but it appears everyone is getting off of fossil asap. You cannot compete against an energy source with no fuel cost.

> Solar can be produced anywhere of course. I take issue with "of course". It will be always be wildly more economic to produce solar power in places with a lot of sun. And without checking, my ballpark guess would be that you get at least 10 times more solar energy out of a panel in Texas than a panel in, say, Canada. Our eyes are just so good at adapting to different light levels that we don't notice the different…

>> my ballpark guess would be that you get at least 10 times

That's the problem with not checking and using your intuition. The difference between Florida and Toronto is only x2. Not x10.

Re: Texas Is Too Windy and Sunny for Old Energy Companies to Make Money

#25

Post by Rylinks »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #4
saryant wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Natural gas energy can be transported much more easily than solar or wind. As more export capacity comes online in the US I would expect natural gas projects in the US to continue apace even if domestic consumption stays flat or declines.

There are multiple transmission line projects in progress in the US to drag wind energy to major load centers. Solar can be produced anywhere of course. Natgas exports may increase, but it appears everyone is getting off of fossil asap. You cannot compete against an energy source with no fuel cost.

People have been competing against solar and wind for years

Re: Texas Is Too Windy and Sunny for Old Energy Companies to Make Money

#26

Post by TeMPOraL »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #18
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You cannot compete against an energy source with no fuel cost Of course you can. The technology to turn photons into useful energy is heavy, complex and reliant on rare elements. In any case, one could flip the analogy by branding coal as photons freely stockpiled by dead trees and algae.

When you install solar panels or wind turbines, you've prepaid for whatever power they'll produce for the next 30+ years. When you generate using a fuel, your margins are dictated by power market spot prices (prices occasionally go negative; do you continue to generate and pay for someone to take your power while you're also paying someone for a fuel? In some scenarios, you must), depreciation, and your fuel costs/co…

> you've prepaid for whatever power they'll produce for the next 30+ years

Assuming they don't degrade completely in those 30 years. Also, I still wonder what's their EROI if you count in their manufacturing, transport and installation costs?

Re: Texas Is Too Windy and Sunny for Old Energy Companies to Make Money

#27

Post by toomuchtodo »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #26
toomuchtodo wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you install solar panels or wind turbines, you've prepaid for whatever power they'll produce for the next 30+ years. When you generate using a fuel, your margins are dictated by power market spot prices (prices occasionally go negative; do you continue to generate and pay for someone to take your power while you're also paying someone for a fuel? In some scenarios, you must), depreciation, and your fuel costs/co…

> you've prepaid for whatever power they'll produce for the next 30+ years Assuming they don't degrade completely in those 30 years. Also, I still wonder what's their EROI if you count in their manufacturing, transport and installation costs?

Solar panels degrade about 0.7 percent a year based on historical data for the last two decades; after 20 years they're still generating at 80+% of total output.

This doesn't take into account the ridiculous cost decline curve we're seeing in solar, and that'll be a fraction of the cost to replace degraded capacity decades from now.

http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51664.pdf

EROI has been positive for quite some time.

Re: Texas Is Too Windy and Sunny for Old Energy Companies to Make Money

#28

Post by aaronbrethorst »

refurb wrote: post #22
sizzzzlerz wrote: post #6

It's surprising that this is allowed to happen by the Texas GOP lege. I would have expected them to either outlaw outright or severely hamper wind farms and other renewable energy business in favor of their big oil benefactors. The resulting screwing of the energy consumers is, as always, an extra benefit.

Let's take a closer look at this. If you're surprised the GOP is allowing this, then something about your assumptions are wrong. Either you're incorrectly assuming the GOP would actively legislate against wind farms or something else is happening. What do you think is the mostly likely explanation?

A quick search on Google reveals that GOP legislators in at least Indiana and Wyoming are working to actively legislate against wind farms. So, it certainly has precedent.

edit: and here's an article that explicitly talks about how GOP members are trying to undermine wind power generation in Texas. https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterdetwiler/2017/02/14/propos...

Re: Texas Is Too Windy and Sunny for Old Energy Companies to Make Money

#29

Post by fencepost »

Very amusing that the article ends with

   “It’s pretty slim pickings right now,” 
   Ferguson said. “God is not manufacturing 
   more coastal property.”
Part of the concern for renewable energy folks is that you could argue that God is arranging for more coastal property, though not perhaps in ways useful to wind farmers on the Texas coast.

Re: Texas Is Too Windy and Sunny for Old Energy Companies to Make Money

#30

Post by chc »

anon3939 wrote: post #12

Seems to be a smart idea, really allowing capitalism to thrive... - https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2017/05/30/why-do-fe... - http://www.nationalreview.com/article/436228/wind-energy-sub...

In the absence of a fair pollution tax, I don't think subsidies for less-harmful technologies are necessarily bad. Unless you are actively in favor of the tragedy of the commons, these negative externalities have to be addressed somehow.
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