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Full Analysis of iPhone Economics: Bad News?

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Re: Full Analysis of iPhone Economics: Bad News?

#91
This is an interesting analysis but a very flawed conclusion. What percentage of restaurant owners will make money? How about online entrepreneurs?

Just because the expected value of building something is low doesn't mean it's a bad model. It just means you have to execute well and that most people fail.

Re: Full Analysis of iPhone Economics: Bad News?

#92

I thought it was already understood that the model of "create a $1 app and sell 10k of them per month" was long over. The App store is still a relatively new market, so people will continue to learn how to be successful on it. I just got an iPad and started using the App store for the first time in my life and guess what? Out of the 5 things I wanted to use the pad for, 3 of them didn't exist at all. There is plenty…

I'm also curious as to what you wanted to see. When I picked up my friend's iPad (a month or two ago) I struggled to find a good finance app that actually gave good charting and numbers for stock market options and commodity futures. I know I'm not the only one who would be interested in that AND I know that those of us who are have fairly deep pockets.

Yea, in my experience it seems the apps are pretty focused. There are a lot of games, a lot of toys and a lot of professional made apps in specific areas (e.g. drawing/photo editing).

Re: Full Analysis of iPhone Economics: Bad News?

#93
post #80
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is nothing useful about those numbers Well, you can keep saying that but you have no numbers and no particularly concrete criticisms of his argument. Maybe he's not comparing like for like. Maybe all your friends have iPhones. Maybe you've forgotten many people outside of North America and Europe own mobile phones. The $35k, as mentioned in other comments in the thread, has very little bearing on his central ar…

"Maybe you've forgotten many people outside of North America and Europe own mobile phones." I wonder how many of those folks have phones that allow them to participate meaningfully in an application marketplace.

Isn't part of his point that you can make money or engage users via SMS or the web without an application marketplace?

Re: Full Analysis of iPhone Economics: Bad News?

#94
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Maybe you've forgotten many people outside of North America and Europe own mobile phones." I wonder how many of those folks have phones that allow them to participate meaningfully in an application marketplace.

Isn't part of his point that you can make money or engage users via SMS or the web without an application marketplace?

I think it is part of the author's point but it isn't a strong argument. The author does a lot of speculative math on developer return in the iOS app market and then makes the implication that the market for feature-phones is vastly larger. However, just because there is a larger population of such devices does not mean that the addressable market is larger. The author does not share or speculate what kind of money could be made in that market.

Re: Full Analysis of iPhone Economics: Bad News?

#95

It's interesting that he's a big business guy. I would restate his title as: "the Apple store is for suckers or smallfry, if you're a big company." And, he's right. Big companies do take $50k+ to create mobile apps. Big companies do have much better things to do with their money; they can add far more value at greater scale. Of course, Jane developer might not be in the same boat. Another interesting confounding vari…

You're absolutely right. But where's the fun in a headline like that. More to the point, I think if you read the rest of his blog, and take the perspective of some of the larger international companies, going for gold with the iPhone won't be the best business strategy. Tomi has given some case studies of how MMS has worked for car dealers in Germany, and even campaign promoters in Australia. There is this under-expl…

Yep, agreed completely. The Apple app store is a democratizing force.
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