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Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

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Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#241

Post by LMYahooTFY »

pkulak wrote: post #128
Animats wrote: post #117

What this really reflects is that Tesla has painted itself into a corner. They've shipped vehicles with a weak sensor suite that's claimed to be sufficient to support self-driving, leaving the software for later. Tesla, unlike everybody else who's serious, doesn't have a LIDAR. Now, it's "later", their software demos are about where Google was in 2010, and Tesla has a big problem. This is a really hard problem to do…

Sorry, I kinda tuned out when you mentioned lidar like it's some requirement for autonomous driving. Lidar is AMAZING for giving press demos on sunny days. For the real world with rain, snow, leaves, plastic bags, etc? Useless. The future is radar + cameras + a LOT of software blood, sweat and tears.

Isn't Tesla parterned with Nvidia to solve the computation side of things?

I thought I remembered Nvidia presenting some additional stuff about it in their Tech demo recently.

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#242

Post by coldtea »

kamaal wrote: post #196
jamespo wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because that's where the (easy) money is

I get it. They would want to release their cars in US or Europe as their primary markets. But even in those cases it makes sense to test in India. Why? Sooner or later you will have some situation in the US which may resemble daily traffic conditions in India. Imagine a law and order situation where people are running around without regards to traffic laws. Or some other situation where traffic is being rerouted thro…

>For all these situations you will very soon need a test environment that provides you with all situations to test.

Which won't be India.

Because you obviously don't want to be testing unprecedented conditions with live subjects in actual traffic.

If anything, that will only happen after tons of simulations of such conditions in fake environments.

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#243

Post by Tepix »

coldtea wrote: post #235
oblio wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's at least 4-5 automotive cycles away, IMO (so 25-30 year away). And that's for the high end. The low end cars are probably 50-60 years away, IMO.

Well, prototypes have already drove millions of miles like that. (Whether they also had a steering wheel is of course irrelevant, what the parent means is that they can drive without nobody needing to use the steering wheel).

All of the systems I've heard about need human intervention every couple of miles.

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#244

Post by sametmax »

Animats wrote: post #117

What this really reflects is that Tesla has painted itself into a corner. They've shipped vehicles with a weak sensor suite that's claimed to be sufficient to support self-driving, leaving the software for later. Tesla, unlike everybody else who's serious, doesn't have a LIDAR. Now, it's "later", their software demos are about where Google was in 2010, and Tesla has a big problem. This is a really hard problem to do…

When musk said they were doing the first decent electrical sport car, everybody became an expert and said it won't work. Then he decided to do solar city and space x. And the crowd said again "naaaa".

Now the guy is tackling another hard problem and everybody knows better.

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#245

Post by dheera »

Matthias247 wrote: post #170
Animats wrote: post #117

What this really reflects is that Tesla has painted itself into a corner. They've shipped vehicles with a weak sensor suite that's claimed to be sufficient to support self-driving, leaving the software for later. Tesla, unlike everybody else who's serious, doesn't have a LIDAR. Now, it's "later", their software demos are about where Google was in 2010, and Tesla has a big problem. This is a really hard problem to do…

> Prediction: 2020 will be the year the big players have self-driving. I think that depends on what you mean with self-driving. My prediction is that in 2020 we will have slightly better driver assistance systems. Maybe a lane assist system which won't kill me if I don't babysit it on a road with construction ongoing and multiple lane markings or if corners get too tight. Maybe some limited self-driving, e.g. only av…

I am curious about what percentage of accidents are caused by the driver falling asleep, and if a lot of lives could be saved by a driver assistance system that self-drives with even the crudest of sensors until the driver is successfully woken up, which would probably be several seconds later.

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#246

Post by evaneykelen »

Animats wrote: post #117

What this really reflects is that Tesla has painted itself into a corner. They've shipped vehicles with a weak sensor suite that's claimed to be sufficient to support self-driving, leaving the software for later. Tesla, unlike everybody else who's serious, doesn't have a LIDAR. Now, it's "later", their software demos are about where Google was in 2010, and Tesla has a big problem. This is a really hard problem to do…

Human drivers are also not equipped with a LIDAR. We rely on stereo-vision combined with a couple of low-tech instruments (rearview mirror, left and right side mirrors and looking-over-shoulder to achieve approx 250-300 degrees view of field) to navigate the road in a vehicle. If you extrapolate the current state of AI and treat 10-20 in-car cameras + radar as the equivalent of what a human brings to the table then I fail to see why Tesla has painted itself in a corner.

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#247

Post by jgalt212 »

evaneykelen wrote: post #246
Animats wrote: post #117

What this really reflects is that Tesla has painted itself into a corner. They've shipped vehicles with a weak sensor suite that's claimed to be sufficient to support self-driving, leaving the software for later. Tesla, unlike everybody else who's serious, doesn't have a LIDAR. Now, it's "later", their software demos are about where Google was in 2010, and Tesla has a big problem. This is a really hard problem to do…

Human drivers are also not equipped with a LIDAR. We rely on stereo-vision combined with a couple of low-tech instruments (rearview mirror, left and right side mirrors and looking-over-shoulder to achieve approx 250-300 degrees view of field) to navigate the road in a vehicle. If you extrapolate the current state of AI and treat 10-20 in-car cameras + radar as the equivalent of what a human brings to the table then I…

true, but bird wings flap and airplane wings don't flap.

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#248

Post by taneq »

BoorishBears wrote: post #231
taneq wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With AP1 they were the only company that had anything approaching level 2/3 in a publicly available production vehicle. Google might have been ahead of them but it's hard to tell since all we ever saw were carefully staged demos.

Was it? Weren't things like Distronic+ w/ Steering Assist (and Audi and BMWs equivalents) almost the same thing?

Similar, but from what I've read, Tesla did it better. I think this was the comparison I was thinking of in particular:

http://www.caranddriver.com/features/semi-autonomous-cars-co...

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#249

Post by localhost »

evaneykelen wrote: post #246
Animats wrote: post #117

What this really reflects is that Tesla has painted itself into a corner. They've shipped vehicles with a weak sensor suite that's claimed to be sufficient to support self-driving, leaving the software for later. Tesla, unlike everybody else who's serious, doesn't have a LIDAR. Now, it's "later", their software demos are about where Google was in 2010, and Tesla has a big problem. This is a really hard problem to do…

Human drivers are also not equipped with a LIDAR. We rely on stereo-vision combined with a couple of low-tech instruments (rearview mirror, left and right side mirrors and looking-over-shoulder to achieve approx 250-300 degrees view of field) to navigate the road in a vehicle. If you extrapolate the current state of AI and treat 10-20 in-car cameras + radar as the equivalent of what a human brings to the table then I…

Agreed. Raquel Urtasan's research is the cutting edge in this area: https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/. And she was recently hired/retained by Uber to lead their robot car efforts in Canada. Here's a recent video of her research from the National Academy of Sciences: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sW4M7-xcseI

Re: Tesla hires Andrej Karpathy

#250

Post by daveguy »

notheguyouthink wrote: post #228
jacquesm wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Maybe a lane assist system which won't kill me if I don't babysit it on a road with construction ongoing and multiple lane markings or if corners get too tight. Or if someone else makes a mistake. That's another scenario that can have very unpredictable and immediate consequences ranging from 'nothing' to 'two car accident with fatalities'. Even in relatively placid (when it comes to driving) NL I see this kind of…

Yup, these are the reasons I'm not interested in those "hands-free but still assisted" autodriving deals. I'd love cruise control assist and lane assist in my car, but that's about all I want until I can be 100% sure cars can handle the situations by themselves.

I believe driver assist technology will get more and more advanced to the point where the car is essentially driving and you are giving suggested feedback. In other words -- the bad situations will be handled themselves. Following distance might be enforced and come with a warning, unless you really want to get dangerously close -- the car will "help".

Your viewpoint is how self-driving cars will come to be accepted into the mainstream. It will essentially sneak up on the average driver.

I would be extremely nervous to let a fully autonomous vehicle drive me given the current state of the art.

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