Live data from Hacker News

The blockchain paradox: Why DLTs may do little to transform the economy

oii.ox.ac.uk

81–90 of 355 posts

Re: The blockchain paradox: Why DLTs may do little to transform the economy

#81
post #7

I agree with Vili Lehdonvirta's analysis about governance and wrote a similar conclusion previously.[1] Yes, the concept of "money" existed before governments and therefore doesn't require government. That said, today's modern money is very much an instrument of government power. This is why alt-coins will not overthrow fiat currencies like some enthusiasts believe because Bitcoin does not come with its own Bitcoin-p…

> the concept of "money" existed before governments

This is not actually true. The concept of money (quantifiable debt in a standard unit, such as coinage) was created by early states to lock subjects into what anthropologist David Graeber has called the "military–coinage–slave complex". Money cannot be separated from state violence.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt:_The_First_5000_Years

Re: The blockchain paradox: Why DLTs may do little to transform the economy

#82
DLTs are inefficient by design. The energy consumption is unsustainable with the technology as it stands. For example Bitcoin consumed an estimated 40 million KWh in the past 24 hours - 137KWh per transaction. Enough to power ~1.3M American homes. Many of the alt-coins are even worse.

Source: http://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption

Re: The blockchain paradox: Why DLTs may do little to transform the economy

#83
post #7

I agree with Vili Lehdonvirta's analysis about governance and wrote a similar conclusion previously.[1] Yes, the concept of "money" existed before governments and therefore doesn't require government. That said, today's modern money is very much an instrument of government power. This is why alt-coins will not overthrow fiat currencies like some enthusiasts believe because Bitcoin does not come with its own Bitcoin-p…

> the concept of "money" existed before governments This is not actually true. The concept of money (quantifiable debt in a standard unit, such as coinage) was created by early states to lock subjects into what anthropologist David Graeber has called the "military–coinage–slave complex". Money cannot be separated from state violence. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt:_The_First_5000_Years

This is an excellent reply.

That said, we'd need to agree on definitions of "state" here. Some kinds of money surely existed before anything recognizable as a "state", but then again, such notions of money are likely as meaningless as this kind of unrecognizable state.

Re: The blockchain paradox: Why DLTs may do little to transform the economy

#84
post #53
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If bitcoin achieved (a big if) wide adoption, it would be like keeping all your money in an index fund whenever you're not actively spending it. Its value would follow the growing economy.

> it would be like keeping all your money in an index fund whenever you're not actively spending it But without even the pretense of funding businesses and actually participating in the economy. Your money can grow on hot air and wishes alone! Why don't we give all people some bitcoin, so everyone can grow richer and richer without doing anything.

There's plenty of hot air and wishes behind regular currency as well.

I have a plan to double the US GDP in one year:

    1. I'll pay you $1 million to sing a song for me.
    2. You pay somebody else $1 million to sing a song for you.
    3. Continue doing this for n turns.
    4. The last person pays me $1 million to sing them a song.
The US GDP is around $20 trillion. That means we only need to set n to 20 million and we now have a $40 trillion economy.

Re: The blockchain paradox: Why DLTs may do little to transform the economy

#85
I agree with this article.

Proponents of blockchain tech argue its revolutionary quality is its ability to act as a decentralized and trustless database. But I don't ever hear them sort through the issue of how to agree on the schema for this trustless database.

For a group of people to use a decentralized DB, they have to agree as to what to store in it, and how to store it. They need to form consensus about how the system will work, and how the data will flow.

For example I've seen people on here mention applications such as a decentralized stock exchange, and a decentralized hotel rooms marketplace.

For either of these, it's necessary to get all the users of the system in a room and agree what is in scope and what is not, and in general what can be done with the system and how. At this point they already have a consensus, they trust each other, they might as well just set up a centralized database run by a 3rd party that manages the system, keeps it up to date and adds upgrades, instead of building it on the blockchain and hoping there are no major bugs in the cloud code and that it will live off gas.

For the stock exchange, that's exactly what we already have. We have institutions that are dedicated to running exchanges, which act as neutral arbiters. They use regular old centralised databases. When they have bugs in their code or the system makes a mistake they can even roll back trades, which they couldn't do on the blockchain.

Essentially this is the same argument as OP. The 3rd party's act of ironing out issues, deciding what the rules are and how they interact is synonymous with OP's term "governance". We agree that using/running the system is different than defining/implementing the system and the latter can't be done trustlessly.

And also governance gets a lot easier when you also run the system centralized ;)

Re: The blockchain paradox: Why DLTs may do little to transform the economy

#86

DLTs are inefficient by design. The energy consumption is unsustainable with the technology as it stands. For example Bitcoin consumed an estimated 40 million KWh in the past 24 hours - 137KWh per transaction . Enough to power ~1.3M American homes. Many of the alt-coins are even worse. Source: http://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption

I wonder what's the energy consumption of an average credit card transaction (including keeping the infrastructure, charge backs etc.)...

Re: The blockchain paradox: Why DLTs may do little to transform the economy

#87

DLTs are inefficient by design. The energy consumption is unsustainable with the technology as it stands. For example Bitcoin consumed an estimated 40 million KWh in the past 24 hours - 137KWh per transaction . Enough to power ~1.3M American homes. Many of the alt-coins are even worse. Source: http://digiconomist.net/bitcoin-energy-consumption

i think its a fair argument to claim that bleeding edge technology is inefficient during its invention phase.

the very first fusion reactors arent all that efficient, either.

Re: The blockchain paradox: Why DLTs may do little to transform the economy

#88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> how is that any different to the existing currency system Fiat currency is governed by central banks, which are arms of government, and are accountable to the public in the same way as the issuing government. Obviously, the degree of accountability varies from government to government.

That is a pretty loose definition of accountability. If your bank screws around, are you going fix it by voting for a different candidate in the next election? I would say that my ability to purchase and run mining hardware, at a loss if necessary, gives me more control over my altcoins than my citizenship gives me over my bank.

> I would say that my ability to purchase and run mining hardware, at a loss if necessary, gives me more control over my altcoins than my citizenship gives me over my bank.

It's roughly similar to buying shares in a publicly-traded bank, which you can do as well as electing candidates for public office to whom the central bank, which is the entity making monetary policy decisions, is accountable.

So it gives you more relative power with altcoins only to the extent that those with more wealth are relatively uninterested in the altcoins in question compared to traditional banking; were a digital currency to succeed beyond a small niche, that would change and you would find yourself as drowned out by moneyed interests as you are in traditional banking on that avenue of leverage, and without the other avenues of accountability that exist with the governance of fiat currencies.

Re: The blockchain paradox: Why DLTs may do little to transform the economy

#89
post #7

I agree with Vili Lehdonvirta's analysis about governance and wrote a similar conclusion previously.[1] Yes, the concept of "money" existed before governments and therefore doesn't require government. That said, today's modern money is very much an instrument of government power. This is why alt-coins will not overthrow fiat currencies like some enthusiasts believe because Bitcoin does not come with its own Bitcoin-p…

> the concept of "money" existed before governments This is not actually true. The concept of money (quantifiable debt in a standard unit, such as coinage) was created by early states to lock subjects into what anthropologist David Graeber has called the "military–coinage–slave complex". Money cannot be separated from state violence. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt:_The_First_5000_Years

>anthropologist David Graeber [...] Money cannot be separated from state violence.

I've read David Graeber's book. I do agree with him that the common (e.g. John Locke) narrative about money arising from direct barter is probably wrong. Money actually comes from credits/debits (aka delayed consumption).

However, I disagree you need government enforced violence for the basic apparatus of money. Perhaps it's a matter of defining "money" in different ways. I'm talking about "money" as a more basic expression of human bookkeeping.

If you have a small community where everybody knows each other, the people can cooperate to keep track of "accounts" of who owes what. They can write the debts/credits on a public church ledger or hypothetically leave it to the reliable memory of a trusted village elder. (E.g. you don't need government for women to spontaneously start trading scrips for future babysitting hours.) What governments enable is scalability. With government standardized money, strangers can transact the units of account across a larger administrative area.

Re: The blockchain paradox: Why DLTs may do little to transform the economy

#90
Takeaway conclusion is existence of a sort of upper bound on the economic potential of blockchains:

>Perhaps blockchain technologies can still deliver better technical performance, like better availability and data integrity

The supporting argument is so tight that it never even invokes the repeated failures of Bitcoin at the exchange/storage level: Mt Gox, wallets et al.

Post reply on HN