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UK election: Conservatives lose majority

bbc.com

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Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#71

Post by mathw »

keithpeter wrote: post #18
radicalbyte wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The UK has a first-past-the-post system designed explicitly to stop coalitions. For the next few weeks the winning party will negotiate with the other parties and try to create a coalition. If that fails they can either try a minority government or a new election will be called. This time around a coalition will be hard, the third party (Lib Dems) went into a coalition with the Tories in 2010. It almost destroyed the…

DUP + Tories could manage a minority government given Sinn Fein's refusal to take up their 7 Westminster seats. I think the voting reflects the general uncertainty about the Brexit process, plus some of the under 30s actually getting out of bed this time... http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/... I actually saw queues outside polling stations yesterday.

I'm a bit wary about the idea of a DUP + Tory agreement, because the DUP must know that the Tory position on Brexit is a huge threat to the stability and peace in Northern Ireland, and a hard border with the Irish Republic would be disastrous.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#72

Post by ddalex »

peterlk wrote: post #8

What does this mean for Brexit? If Theresa May is kicked out, can/will it be declawed? Can it be reversed? Also, can someone explain to me the steps by which parties in Britain create coalitions (or whatever) and then put a new PM in place? I'm an American, so any reference to American politics is super helpful.

The thing about brexit was that the UK was already enjoying a lot of privileges and leeway in regards to their participation in the EU - they didn't participate on the agricultural subsidising fund, they didn't have to covert to Euro, etc, setting them apart and ahead of the other EU countries.

I'm quite positive that the remaining powers of the EU, starting with Germany and France are actually delighted at leveling the playing field and harmonising the EU commitment for the remaining members.

So if the UK wants back in the EU, they will certainly be welcome with the open arms, but without any of the special deals and privileges that UK has enjoyed.

If only for this reason and Brexit was a terrible mistake.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#73

Post by Freak_NL »

mtgx wrote: post #45

This election shows once again how terrible the FPTP voting system is. The Tories gained like 41% of the vote, but 48% of the seats. And this is a "better" outcome than it would've been in the U.S., where you also have other high arbitrary thresholds for third-parties, and the media virtually ignores them throughout the year-long election cycles. If the Tories had 41% of the seats (per the number of votes they receiv…

As someone who lives in a country with proportional representation as the basis of its electoral system the UK and US first-past-the-post voting system is really weird to observe. It doesn't seem very democratic that a party could get 20% of the popular vote nationally, but win no seats whatsoever.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#74

Post by HalfwayToDice »

Just a reminder, and I think it's getting lost here in the HackerNews demographic narrative.. but:

The Conservatives Won The Election

They will be ruling for 5 years, in a coalition with the even more conservative DUP.

Labour/progressives are out of power for at least another 5 years.

I know it's a bucket of cold water, but I think people aren't facing up to reality after Corbyn did much much better than expected. But he still lost.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#75

Post by mathw »

cm2187 wrote: post #58
arethuza wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this election has been a huge boost for Labour - in any election in the short term I think they'd do even better than they've done in this one. NB I'm not a Labour supporter...

Possibly. But Corbyn certainly benefited a lot from having a weak candidate against him. He could possibly not be so lucky if there is a new election.

Would depend a lot on who the Tories would pick to replace May, although the word this morning is that she has no intention of resigning. Doesn't mean someone isn't going to try and oust her though, there are a lot of Tories who'll be extremely angry with her after last night.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#76

Post by theBobBob »

egeekuk wrote: post #59
flukus wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hypothetically, Would they accept a united Ireland as part of the UK?

The bigger question there is why would the Irish want to become part of the UK after less than 100 years of independence?

I'm curious has something like that ever happened. A country was conquered, then won independence and then at a later point, decided to "rejoin" them.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#77

Post by cm2187 »

PhasmaFelis wrote: post #24

What exactly does a "strong" versus "weak" Brexit imply?

The degree of access to the EU market. Which is effectively a tradeoff of access to market for sovereignty. Ie if you implement all EU laws (even though you have no say on them), you are EU compatible and will be given access. That's basically where Norway is. There are legitimate concerns of which is worse between loosing sovereignty over loosing the single market access.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#78

Post by cm2187 »

mathw wrote: post #75
cm2187 wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Possibly. But Corbyn certainly benefited a lot from having a weak candidate against him. He could possibly not be so lucky if there is a new election.

Would depend a lot on who the Tories would pick to replace May, although the word this morning is that she has no intention of resigning. Doesn't mean someone isn't going to try and oust her though, there are a lot of Tories who'll be extremely angry with her after last night.

I would be shocked if May survives the day.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#79

Post by Someone »

PhasmaFelis wrote: post #24

What exactly does a "strong" versus "weak" Brexit imply?

In the extreme:

Weak = become like Norway or Switzerland; technically not in the EU, but bound to many of its treaties. Get you the benefits of, say, open borders, but also means paying for, say, saving the banking system and (almost) accepting whatever new rules the 'real' EU counties come up with (because it got exemptions for lots of EU regulations, Great Britain currently is almost less of a EU member than Switzerland, so it probably wouldn't go that far)

Strong = break all ties with the EU. No open market, border controls everywhere (including the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland) but also no more payments to the EU, and having the freedom to, say, create import tariffs for German cars.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#80

Post by dragonwriter »

trosi wrote: post #21
peterlk wrote: post #8

What does this mean for Brexit? If Theresa May is kicked out, can/will it be declawed? Can it be reversed? Also, can someone explain to me the steps by which parties in Britain create coalitions (or whatever) and then put a new PM in place? I'm an American, so any reference to American politics is super helpful.

Parliament has already voted yes on Brexit, and formal communication was already sent to the EU. According to Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty the UK now has less than 2 years to negotiate the terms of its exit. I don't think the process can be reversed but there is certainly a lot of leeway in how it will happen.

The terms can be anything the UK and EU (but that's all of the EU) agrees to, including reentry.

So its reversible, and if there was a change of government that wanted to reverse it I suspect the EU would go along. OTOH, it seems near certain that if a coalition is formed, it will be a Tory-DUP coalition, which won't want to reverse it (the DUP seems to want a softer Brexit, but it's not clear that the EU is interested in that.)

If a government can't be formed.(which doesn't seem implausible), then my understanding is that there is another election in fairly short order.

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