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UK election: Conservatives lose majority

bbc.com

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Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#11

Post by gideonparanoid »

peterlk wrote: post #8

What does this mean for Brexit? If Theresa May is kicked out, can/will it be declawed? Can it be reversed? Also, can someone explain to me the steps by which parties in Britain create coalitions (or whatever) and then put a new PM in place? I'm an American, so any reference to American politics is super helpful.

There's only two parties - Lib Dems & Greens - which promised a chance to revert Brexit, so I wouldn't expect it to be reversed. A softer Brexit is certainly on the cards though.

This guide [0] from the BBC might help to understand how coalitions are formed. It's currently looking very tricky as the splits are crazy [1].

[0] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40209087

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2017/jun...

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#14

Post by radicalbyte »

peterlk wrote: post #8

What does this mean for Brexit? If Theresa May is kicked out, can/will it be declawed? Can it be reversed? Also, can someone explain to me the steps by which parties in Britain create coalitions (or whatever) and then put a new PM in place? I'm an American, so any reference to American politics is super helpful.

The UK has a first-past-the-post system designed explicitly to stop coalitions.

For the next few weeks the winning party will negotiate with the other parties and try to create a coalition. If that fails they can either try a minority government or a new election will be called.

This time around a coalition will be hard, the third party (Lib Dems) went into a coalition with the Tories in 2010. It almost destroyed them as a party so they won't do it again.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#15

Post by deanclatworthy »

alkonaut wrote: post #7

Not familiar with hung parliaments in the UK - normally there would be new elections if a majority government can't be formed - correct? So if LibDem/DUP and others refuse to even passively back either Labour or Conservatives then what?

Labour plus the others won't have a majority. And no other party would join with the tories at this point. So we are likely in store for another election, announced in the next couple of weeks.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#16

Post by theBobBob »

robk wrote: post #2

I hope the influence of the DUP in Belfast will at least put us on a footing to get immigration and borders sorted more quickly. Those factors will have the greatest effect on tech companies.

Honestly the idea of the DUP having actual power in Westminster scares me. They are even more conservative then the Conservatives, especially about social issues.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#17

Post by alkonaut »

peterlk wrote: post #8

What does this mean for Brexit? If Theresa May is kicked out, can/will it be declawed? Can it be reversed? Also, can someone explain to me the steps by which parties in Britain create coalitions (or whatever) and then put a new PM in place? I'm an American, so any reference to American politics is super helpful.

Unlikely to be reversed but it's a big slowdown and uncertainty for the whole Brexit process which was due to start already next week I believe.

But on the bright side (for us in the rest of EU) it's also more likely to result in a "softer" brexit, if the election result is seen as a vote against May's Conservative plan.

That said, whoever replaces May - once she has been eaten by the Tory backbenchers - is likely to have been an original Brexit backer, which May was not. For example Boris Johnson. So it's all very uncertain at this point.

Edit: Was unsure about the exact date of negotiations - they were set to start on june 19th but it's uncertain if it can now.

Someone actually created a throwaway account to deliver a salty (now removed) comment that I should shut up if I didn't know what I was talking about - referring to "I believe.." in my original comment. Otherwise this would "Turn into reddit".

Someone is having a bad morning.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#18

Post by keithpeter »

radicalbyte wrote: post #14
peterlk wrote: post #8

What does this mean for Brexit? If Theresa May is kicked out, can/will it be declawed? Can it be reversed? Also, can someone explain to me the steps by which parties in Britain create coalitions (or whatever) and then put a new PM in place? I'm an American, so any reference to American politics is super helpful.

The UK has a first-past-the-post system designed explicitly to stop coalitions. For the next few weeks the winning party will negotiate with the other parties and try to create a coalition. If that fails they can either try a minority government or a new election will be called. This time around a coalition will be hard, the third party (Lib Dems) went into a coalition with the Tories in 2010. It almost destroyed the…

DUP + Tories could manage a minority government given Sinn Fein's refusal to take up their 7 Westminster seats.

I think the voting reflects the general uncertainty about the Brexit process, plus some of the under 30s actually getting out of bed this time...

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/...

I actually saw queues outside polling stations yesterday.

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#19

Post by alkonaut »

deanclatworthy wrote: post #15
alkonaut wrote: post #7

Not familiar with hung parliaments in the UK - normally there would be new elections if a majority government can't be formed - correct? So if LibDem/DUP and others refuse to even passively back either Labour or Conservatives then what?

Labour plus the others won't have a majority. And no other party would join with the tories at this point. So we are likely in store for another election, announced in the next couple of weeks.

If you were to guess - what would be the result of that? Hard to say I assume given we don't even know who will lead the Conservatives to that election, but do you think the Labour bounce was a one off thing or a trend that might see them take even more seats ?

Re: UK election: Conservatives lose majority

#20

Post by PhasmaFelis »

peterlk wrote: post #8

What does this mean for Brexit? If Theresa May is kicked out, can/will it be declawed? Can it be reversed? Also, can someone explain to me the steps by which parties in Britain create coalitions (or whatever) and then put a new PM in place? I'm an American, so any reference to American politics is super helpful.

The BBC has an interesting article on the subject. http://www.bbc.com/news/live/election-2017-40171454
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