i think options do a couple of things: 1) they let employees invest in startups using their time instead of their money, which is handy when you aren't rich and 2) they allow the company to have a legal framework around an IOU: take less salary now, bigger payout later maybe. thought experiment: knowing everything you know about e.g. stripe right now, would you buy $100k worth of stripe back in ~2012? in 2012 it was…
Given what you know about Bitcoin now, would you buy $100k worth of bitcoin in 2010? Of course you would. Except...I didn't tell you that your investment would be held by Mt. Gox. You lost your investment. There is always risk. Always. 97% of startups fail. They are extremely high risk. The earlier you buy in, the higher the potential payout, but the more likely you are to be backing one that will fail. Even the succ…
Sure, maybe 97% fail, but most have already failed before taking on an employee on equity.
A more appropriate number would be the number of startups that fail after that milestone.
For instance, I calculated the numbers for my country, 40% of startups that get accepted into an incubator succeed, 40% fail and close, and 20% stagnate (mine is currently in the 20%).
So, you're buying a 40% ticket, not a 3% ticket. Still losing odds, but not so much so, and if you're an early employee, you can really help tilt the odds (5%? 10%? I don't know).