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Python For Finance: Algorithmic Trading

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Re: Python For Finance: Algorithmic Trading

#131
post #18
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not everyone can build their own backtesting tool. I played around with quantopian for a little while and did some live trading with quantopian + robinhood and I never would have been able to do that without quantopian

I am not a developer, but using my brokers API, examples and python, it took me few months to build a very robust and automatic trading system... I did learn python by back testing my trading ideas... To use Quantopian you still have to learn python, so I am not sure where is the benefit, considering all the problems mentioned here...

Or C#

Re: Python For Finance: Algorithmic Trading

#132
post #123
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is why models are just for starting a conversation and not for predicting the future. Life has too many variables.

Wall Street isn't paying all those quants to start conversations.

Try writing out a business plan and see how well everything comes true step by step.

My point is that models will never accurately predict the future.

Re: Python For Finance: Algorithmic Trading

#133
post #57
post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with most of what you're saying in principle, but it is very possible to identify alpha or acquire an edge that institutional market participants don't have. If you have access to data that most of the market does not, you can effectively trade on it. You can also effectively trade on a novel insight on a combination of data sources. There is a lot of information asymmetry, and an individual is capable of cap…

Dsacco, I really like your way of thinking, too bad we cannot agree on the cheap data sources :-) My hope is that one day you can see the world trough my glasses :-)

> My hope is that one day you can see the world trough my glasses :-)

Why?

Re: Python For Finance: Algorithmic Trading

#135
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> technical analysis which is basically patterns proven to repeat in markets for a variety of fundamental reasons Technical analysis is merely another name for hindsight bias. Those patterns only look like they repeat in hindsight because you're ignoring all the failed patterns that setup right but failed to play out and thus don't look like the pattern in hindsight. Technical analysis is exactly like astrology and i…

Can you provide sources that back up your claim with studies of inefficiency of technical analysis? I'm not busting your balls, I actually agree with you but I haven't seen it really proven.

> Can you provide sources that back up your claim with studies of inefficiency of technical analysis?

Not the original guy but I just want to point out that Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch do not believe in technical analysis.

Re: Python For Finance: Algorithmic Trading

#136
post #45

The main issue I found in algo and financial aspects of programming is that the market is a zero sum game, and my intro knowledge of finance and algorithms, even when I know python, are no match for MIT PHD Quants who does it full time. There's no real way to compete with that, and therefore I would lose money, even if the data showed it might be successful in the future, firms and full time workers on algo trading w…

You can get an advantage if you focus on smaller markets or industries where it's not worth the time for the big quants to play in.

The is the only place the small guy can get alpha. Too small for the big guys to worry about and lots of fun to boot. The downside is the insider trading problem is really bad.

Re: Python For Finance: Algorithmic Trading

#137
post #102
post #45

The main issue I found in algo and financial aspects of programming is that the market is a zero sum game, and my intro knowledge of finance and algorithms, even when I know python, are no match for MIT PHD Quants who does it full time. There's no real way to compete with that, and therefore I would lose money, even if the data showed it might be successful in the future, firms and full time workers on algo trading w…

Why do you say it's a zero sum game? If I've learnt anything from my time in finance, it's that the market is definitely not zero sum. The prices you see represent sentiment, not a hard valuation, and someone isn't necessarily losing when you gain. If you really think about it, even entire economies aren't really zero sum as our method of valuation is intrinsically subjective!

I think that the OP meant that the speculation part (trying to buy low and sell high to beat the market) is a zero-sum game.

On the other hand, this zero-sum game helps companies raise capital to make real investments with real returns, and that part isn't zero-sum.

Re: Python For Finance: Algorithmic Trading

#138
post #135
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you provide sources that back up your claim with studies of inefficiency of technical analysis? I'm not busting your balls, I actually agree with you but I haven't seen it really proven.

> Can you provide sources that back up your claim with studies of inefficiency of technical analysis? Not the original guy but I just want to point out that Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch do not believe in technical analysis.

Well they are obviously fundamental type of investors, and I have no doubts this type of investment is superior to pattern matching and chart gazing. But I see all those guys doing their pretty technical analysis charts in stocks and bitcoins and even though I think it's all BS, I wonder, is it? I mean, can you get a small edge? why would they be at it all day if it wasn't making them money?

Re: Python For Finance: Algorithmic Trading

#139
post #45

The main issue I found in algo and financial aspects of programming is that the market is a zero sum game, and my intro knowledge of finance and algorithms, even when I know python, are no match for MIT PHD Quants who does it full time. There's no real way to compete with that, and therefore I would lose money, even if the data showed it might be successful in the future, firms and full time workers on algo trading w…

You are painting with an extremely broad brush. Before you give up on this idea, just try this exercise: enumerate the markets and financial instruments that you could potentially trade in, and characterize the current trading environment in that market.

An ultra-HFT liquidity provider being profitable has little bearing on the potential profitability of quantitative trading on significantly larger timescales. There isn't sufficient volatility in most products for these actors to eat the lunch of actors who have alpha on trades that can hold for significant periods.

Re: Python For Finance: Algorithmic Trading

#140
post #45

The main issue I found in algo and financial aspects of programming is that the market is a zero sum game, and my intro knowledge of finance and algorithms, even when I know python, are no match for MIT PHD Quants who does it full time. There's no real way to compete with that, and therefore I would lose money, even if the data showed it might be successful in the future, firms and full time workers on algo trading w…

This. But it does give python weenies an excuse to fool themselves into believing they are "programmers."
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