Paul Singer is bracing for ‘all hell to break loose’ in the stock market
1–10 of 17 posts
Re: Paul Singer is bracing for ‘all hell to break loose’ in the stock market
#2All the signs are there, but as usual there's no shortage of people claiming this time is different again.
Re: Paul Singer is bracing for ‘all hell to break loose’ in the stock market
#3All the signs are there, but as usual there's no shortage of people claiming this time is different again.
what signs? it's hard to predict the future. Assets are expensive but it doesn't mean they can't get even more expensive
Re: Paul Singer is bracing for ‘all hell to break loose’ in the stock market
#4Here's Paul Singer warning us in 2014 that "the threat of a widespread blackout from an electromagnetic surge the "most significant danger" in the world":
http://www.cnbc.com/2014/07/29/paul-singer-this-threat-is-he...
All the signs are there! Seriously, some financial blowhard says something like this every day; why is this news?
Re: Paul Singer is bracing for ‘all hell to break loose’ in the stock market
#5It's apt to point out that Mr. Singer intends to profit on the long side. How many souls find themselves in the same predicament. Fearmongers will benefit from reading Triumph of Optimists by Dimson, Marsh and Staunton.
https://www.amazon.com/Triumph-Optimists-Global-Investment-R...
Re: Paul Singer is bracing for ‘all hell to break loose’ in the stock market
#6All the signs are there, but as usual there's no shortage of people claiming this time is different again.
what signs? it's hard to predict the future. Assets are expensive but it doesn't mean they can't get even more expensive
The article cites prices drifting ever higher with low volatility. Even as a card-carrying market prediction skeptic, I think this has to be seen as worrying because it implies the market is detached from the usual random news events that should each cause price movements. Certainly when there are no corresponding "you've never had it so good" economic conditions.
Re: Paul Singer is bracing for ‘all hell to break loose’ in the stock market
#7All the signs are there, but as usual there's no shortage of people claiming this time is different again.
what signs? it's hard to predict the future. Assets are expensive but it doesn't mean they can't get even more expensive
If nothing else, one can examine the current expansion's duration against the history of other expansions.
The longest business cycle expansion in U.S. history lasted 119 months. The current one is going on 97 months.
Even in the absence of "signs", one could make a rational bet that we are much nearer the end of the current run than the beginning, particularly with the headwinds of rate hike expectations.
Unless, of course, it really is different, this time.
Re: Paul Singer is bracing for ‘all hell to break loose’ in the stock market
#8I'm no macroeconomist, but I would agree the signs have been building to a crescendo, very reminiscent of 2005-2007 feel when more and more voices were sounding the alarm.
In brief I would mention: credit card & student debt bubble; housing market re-inflation to pre-crash levels; stock market at new highs and a decade since the last recession; being in ZIRP and pushing on a string for so long we're out of monetary policy ammo and have a near total lack of political willpower for real fiscal policy changes, leading to the lack of much apparent recovery or health in the real economy outside a few sectors; the worsening inequality continuing to hollow out the middle class; the ongoing / accelerating wave of automation; approaching shark-jump territory in tech with a lot of signs the zirped-VC is drying up.
The whole "main street" economy has a Weekend at Bernie's feel of a dead guy being dragged around by some people who don't want the party to stop.
Re: Paul Singer is bracing for ‘all hell to break loose’ in the stock market
#9Mr Singer is a bottom feeding parasite, the poster child for vulture capitalism. Anything he can do to destabilize financial markets for his own gain, regardless of cost to everyone else, is all he cares about. I hope karma is a bitch for him....
Separately there are lots of very worrying issues about the global economy, Mr Singer would love to upset the applecart and profit from the carnage.
Re: Paul Singer is bracing for ‘all hell to break loose’ in the stock market
#10"Lately, the stock market has been stubbornly buoyant."
In other words, Singer is wrong.
There are two facts about stock market prognostication:
1. At any given point in time you will always be able to find someone on Wall Street predicting that the market will crash Real Soon Now.
2. Market crashes are inevitable.
Hence, when market crashes happen you will always be able to find someone who predicted it. The trick is to sort out that correct prediction from the myriad wrong ones before the crash. No one has cracked that nut yet.