Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The long, winding road for driverless cars

economist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

51–60 of 61 posts

Re: The long, winding road for driverless cars

#51

Post by rdubz »

kbos87 wrote: post #18

I for one hope driverless cars take a hell of a lot longer than people like Elon Musk expect them to. First off, I enjoy driving. I identify with the brand of car I just bought. Yes, I have to deal with traffic and competing for parking in my congested city neighborhood... but that's a choice I made because driving and the freedom that comes along with it are, to me, things I value. If you think I'm a small minority,…

Humans kill a million people each year with cars.

Driving should be illegal.

Re: The long, winding road for driverless cars

#52

Post by maxerickson »

xiphias wrote: post #38
pinpeliponni wrote: post #37

We haven't even got to the hardest questions yet because driverless cars are still so far away. Think of a situation where you have to choose from either hitting an other car killing everyone inside it but saving you, or driving off the road killing you but saving everyone. Well, we all save ourselves if we can choose (timing, etc). But what if the other car has 5 passengers and you are alone? The driverless car will…

The solution to this problem is quite simple: the car should slow down _before_ it can get to a situation like this. For this situation to happen the other car must do something stupid, which should be detected before it can cause something that can kill anybody.

Yes, there is something fascinating about a vehicle that careens into the unknown and then makes a perfect ethical evaluation of the next action it takes.

Re: The long, winding road for driverless cars

#53

Post by hwillis »

taway_1212 wrote: post #39
hwillis wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It works for any "local commutes" up to 250 miles (base model). That's a shitload of driving. Taking a half hour break after over 3 hours of driving is not that weird. Imagine if we all had electric cars, and had to switch to gasoline. It would seem so inconvenient to have to go all the way to a gas station to refill, when you're used to having a fully charged vehicle every morning. It would seem so inconsequential t…

Maybe I've had lunch already (am driving in the evening)? Maybe my lunch takes 15 minutes and I don't need entire 30? Maybe I prefer to have my break 4-5 hours into the drive instead?

My point is that it is certainly not a dealbreaker, and barely even a minor inconvenience. It's certainly irrelevant next to climate change.

Re: The long, winding road for driverless cars

#54

Post by llukas »

daveguy wrote: post #50
llukas wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you and grandparent missed somehow Tesla and other companies that demonstrated battery change?

Oh yeah? They're offering that at charging stations? Where is that? There is an enormous difference between demonstrated and available. Showing something could work doesn't address bad batteries or standardization.

Please don't move the goalposts.

Grandparent claim was:

> The size and weight of the full battery pack may make it infeasible to change quickly.

Tesla did it - in 90 seconds. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XdiGMIUxeY

Also WTF is that claim about bad batteries and standarization? Tesla owns entire production/support chain of Tesla cars plus they got live telemetry from each car - they set the standard and got full info about the car battery.

There was another company in Israel (Better Place) that had multiple battery swap stations as well.

Quick battery swap is technically feasible contrary to grandparent claim.

Re: The long, winding road for driverless cars

#55

Post by taway_1212 »

hwillis wrote: post #53
taway_1212 wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe I've had lunch already (am driving in the evening)? Maybe my lunch takes 15 minutes and I don't need entire 30? Maybe I prefer to have my break 4-5 hours into the drive instead?

My point is that it is certainly not a dealbreaker, and barely even a minor inconvenience. It's certainly irrelevant next to climate change.

I wonder what's the environmental cost of: producing and disposing of car batteries, and upgrading our power grid (as well as generation capacities) to produce the amounts of energy that switch to electric cars would require.

Re: The long, winding road for driverless cars

#56

Post by [deleted] »

taway_1212 wrote: post #55
hwillis wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point is that it is certainly not a dealbreaker, and barely even a minor inconvenience. It's certainly irrelevant next to climate change.

I wonder what's the environmental cost of: producing and disposing of car batteries, and upgrading our power grid (as well as generation capacities) to produce the amounts of energy that switch to electric cars would require.

[deleted]

Re: The long, winding road for driverless cars

#57

Post by hwillis »

taway_1212 wrote: post #55
hwillis wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point is that it is certainly not a dealbreaker, and barely even a minor inconvenience. It's certainly irrelevant next to climate change.

I wonder what's the environmental cost of: producing and disposing of car batteries, and upgrading our power grid (as well as generation capacities) to produce the amounts of energy that switch to electric cars would require.

If you're really curious, this subject is of course extensively studied. I mostly follow EIA and NREL reports. Both organizations take an annual census of the state of involved technologies.

The environmental cost of switching to electric vehicles is quite low with the caveat that cobalt mining can produce concentrated heavy metal pollution. This is unlikely to be a problem as cobalt mining will diversify from third world countries, specifically Congo. There is a modest increase in manufacturing energy (~30% iirc) which is made up rapidly by electricity (within a year if powered by renewables- a car burns its own weight in gas in several years).

The cost of renewable plants is quite reasonable if you replace old plants, and grid scale batteries are now also cheap. A solar power plant with a 3 day battery backup now costs less than an equivalent nuclear plant. Natural gas is exceptionally cheap but it cant scale fully. Renewables get cheaper at scale. The grid itself will probably not need many upgrades, or even any upgrades. Power draw fluctuates 50%+ between day and night, and electric cars will charge overwhelmingly at night. If we switched all cars to electric it eould increase residential draw by 30-40% (11 kWh per day). The grid will sustain that easily except for specific locations with abnormal charging times or high distance driving.

Heres one on power generation: http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/sustain_lca_results.html

Re: The long, winding road for driverless cars

#58

Post by [deleted] »

taway_1212 wrote: post #55
hwillis wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point is that it is certainly not a dealbreaker, and barely even a minor inconvenience. It's certainly irrelevant next to climate change.

I wonder what's the environmental cost of: producing and disposing of car batteries, and upgrading our power grid (as well as generation capacities) to produce the amounts of energy that switch to electric cars would require.

[deleted]

Re: The long, winding road for driverless cars

#59

Post by greglindahl »

daveguy wrote: post #49
ams6110 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's because EVs only work for a subset of driving needs (local commutes). If you need to drive long distances, even occasionally, you either need to own another car, or rent one. Either is at best suboptimal compared to owning one car that can do it all. When I can own an EV that will go 300-400 miles per charge and can be recharged in 5 minutes at any corner "station" I will think about it.

In the US it's not as feasible because of driving distances between cities, but in the EU where cities are closer and the train system is healthy I can see EVs gobbling up market share fast. In the US you would need random charging stations lining the highways like we have gas stations. I expect people are much less likely to want to stop for 30 min at a random gas station than in a city center to recharge.

Current Tesla owners seem to be OK with the supercharging system.

Re: The long, winding road for driverless cars

#60

Post by daveguy »

llukas wrote: post #54
daveguy wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh yeah? They're offering that at charging stations? Where is that? There is an enormous difference between demonstrated and available. Showing something could work doesn't address bad batteries or standardization.

Please don't move the goalposts. Grandparent claim was: > The size and weight of the full battery pack may make it infeasible to change quickly. Tesla did it - in 90 seconds. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XdiGMIUxeY Also WTF is that claim about bad batteries and standarization? Tesla owns entire production/support chain of Tesla cars plus they got live telemetry from each car - they set the standard and got full i…

Did it in 90 seconds. Where are they doing it in 90 seconds? Pretty sure they scrapped it, because people didn't want the risk of getting bunk batteries. IE simply an old battery. Do you not understand that EVERY lipo battery has a limited lifespan. Do they swap your used battery for a brand new ones every time? I doubt it. If not, no thanks. Not worth the variability / risk of getting a degraded battery as all lipo batteries degrade with time and cycles.

This is probably one reason they scrapped it.

The next reason they scrapped it.

In your video they "torqued every bolt to the factory specification". The Tesla factory specification. This is exactly what I mean by standardization. Standardization is another issue. You can't have a generic "battery swap station" until EV companies standardize on a battery system, which they won't do because battery system is going to be like a model trim. Yes, you can have a just-for-tesla swap station (but even Tesla isn't bothering with that anymore). You could have a standard charge station because charge plugs are quickly moving toward standardization.

Is there anything else you are having trouble understanding?

So again. Show me where this is a regular thing. It is cumbersome you can have a special garage to change out a specific battery pack. It has to be done with garage equipment, and the battery and connection system is specific to a single type of car. That will not scale.

I didn't move the goalpost. I pointed out your arguments falling on their faces 50 yards away from the goalpost.

Post reply on HN