The long, winding road for driverless cars
economist.com
The long, winding road for driverless cars
1–10 of 61 posts
Re: The long, winding road for driverless cars
#2"After a couple of decades, hybrid and electric vehicles still account for no more than 2% of new-car sales in most countries."
This is just not convincing. The sales were weak because the products were weak. There are about 500,000 people who have placed orders for the Model 3 sight unseen. There is tremendous pent up demand for these cars, simply because buyers believe that the company selling them finally has the right formula.
"Unlike video cameras, lidar cannot be dazzled by bright light nor blinded by the dark."
LiDAR I've worked with in fact could suffer 'sun poisoning' if the sun shone directly into the receiver.
"Local governments will have to spend scarce resources making road infrastructure more AV-friendly."
Right, like fixing this false lane marker (the actual lane marker is the yellow line in the lane barrier's shadow): http://imgur.com/a/KnsXU
Re: The long, winding road for driverless cars
#3"After a couple of decades, hybrid and electric vehicles still account for no more than 2% of new-car sales in most countries." This is just not convincing. The sales were weak because the products were weak. There are about 500,000 people who have placed orders for the Model 3 sight unseen . There is tremendous pent up demand for these cars, simply because buyers believe that the company selling them finally has the…
> There are about 500,000 people who have placed orders for the Model 3 sight unseen.
* There are 500,000 people who have put down a fully refundable $1,000 deposit on the option to buy a Tesla Model 3.
That's a long way from 500,000 orders placed.
(But I agree, "less than 2% of all new car sales in most countries" is a weasely stat, because it is growing fast. They are still a small percent of total sales)
Re: The long, winding road for driverless cars
#4"After a couple of decades, hybrid and electric vehicles still account for no more than 2% of new-car sales in most countries." This is just not convincing. The sales were weak because the products were weak. There are about 500,000 people who have placed orders for the Model 3 sight unseen . There is tremendous pent up demand for these cars, simply because buyers believe that the company selling them finally has the…
> LiDAR I've worked with in fact could suffer 'sun poisoning' if the sun shone directly into the receiver.
Notably, the optical guidance systems in all existing vehicles are subject to exactly the same exploit.
This is one of the criticisms (of self-driving cars, and with LIDAR vs. imaging specifically) I just simply don't get. You can blind a real driver much more easily and less recoverably than you can any sensor.
Re: The long, winding road for driverless cars
#5"After a couple of decades, hybrid and electric vehicles still account for no more than 2% of new-car sales in most countries." This is just not convincing. The sales were weak because the products were weak. There are about 500,000 people who have placed orders for the Model 3 sight unseen . There is tremendous pent up demand for these cars, simply because buyers believe that the company selling them finally has the…
> There are about 500,000 people who have placed orders for the Model 3 sight unseen. * There are 500,000 people who have put down a fully refundable $1,000 deposit on the option to buy a Tesla Model 3. That's a long way from 500,000 orders placed. (But I agree, "less than 2% of all new car sales in most countries" is a weasely stat, because it is growing fast. They are still a small percent of total sales)
It's because EVs only work for a subset of driving needs (local commutes).
If you need to drive long distances, even occasionally, you either need to own another car, or rent one. Either is at best suboptimal compared to owning one car that can do it all.
When I can own an EV that will go 300-400 miles per charge and can be recharged in 5 minutes at any corner "station" I will think about it.
Re: The long, winding road for driverless cars
#6"After a couple of decades, hybrid and electric vehicles still account for no more than 2% of new-car sales in most countries." This is just not convincing. The sales were weak because the products were weak. There are about 500,000 people who have placed orders for the Model 3 sight unseen . There is tremendous pent up demand for these cars, simply because buyers believe that the company selling them finally has the…
> LiDAR I've worked with in fact could suffer 'sun poisoning' if the sun shone directly into the receiver. Notably, the optical guidance systems in all existing vehicles are subject to exactly the same exploit. This is one of the criticisms (of self-driving cars, and with LIDAR vs. imaging specifically) I just simply don't get. You can blind a real driver much more easily and less recoverably than you can any sensor.
Drivers deal with having the sun shining in their eye using sunshades, visors and a whole raft of movement tricks to avoid having their retinas burned out. A passive sensor (which is where we're headed) has no protection at all, it just sits where while it is being fried.
It's true that the sun low near the horizon at sunup or sundown, especially on clear winter days causes accidents but I'm not all that sure whether or not LIDAR will do better here than humans. Time will tell.
Re: The long, winding road for driverless cars
#7Earlier quoted context omitted.
> There are about 500,000 people who have placed orders for the Model 3 sight unseen. * There are 500,000 people who have put down a fully refundable $1,000 deposit on the option to buy a Tesla Model 3. That's a long way from 500,000 orders placed. (But I agree, "less than 2% of all new car sales in most countries" is a weasely stat, because it is growing fast. They are still a small percent of total sales)
It's because EVs only work for a subset of driving needs (local commutes). If you need to drive long distances, even occasionally, you either need to own another car, or rent one. Either is at best suboptimal compared to owning one car that can do it all. When I can own an EV that will go 300-400 miles per charge and can be recharged in 5 minutes at any corner "station" I will think about it.
I thought the idea was that you could swap batteries, not sit there charging.
Re: The long, winding road for driverless cars
#8"After a couple of decades, hybrid and electric vehicles still account for no more than 2% of new-car sales in most countries." This is just not convincing. The sales were weak because the products were weak. There are about 500,000 people who have placed orders for the Model 3 sight unseen . There is tremendous pent up demand for these cars, simply because buyers believe that the company selling them finally has the…
> There are about 500,000 people who have placed orders for the Model 3 sight unseen. * There are 500,000 people who have put down a fully refundable $1,000 deposit on the option to buy a Tesla Model 3. That's a long way from 500,000 orders placed. (But I agree, "less than 2% of all new car sales in most countries" is a weasely stat, because it is growing fast. They are still a small percent of total sales)
India and China the largest growth market for passenger cars and vehicles in general are pushing for electric cars.
Re: The long, winding road for driverless cars
#9Earlier quoted context omitted.
> LiDAR I've worked with in fact could suffer 'sun poisoning' if the sun shone directly into the receiver. Notably, the optical guidance systems in all existing vehicles are subject to exactly the same exploit. This is one of the criticisms (of self-driving cars, and with LIDAR vs. imaging specifically) I just simply don't get. You can blind a real driver much more easily and less recoverably than you can any sensor.
Drivers deal with having the sun shining in their eye using sunshades, visors and a whole raft of movement tricks to avoid having their retinas burned out. A passive sensor (which is where we're headed) has no protection at all, it just sits where while it is being fried. It's true that the sun low near the horizon at sunup or sundown, especially on clear winter days causes accidents but I'm not all that sure whether…
What if you put an intensity sensor next to the LIDAR sensor and came up with some solution to position the LIDAR like sunshades, visors, and 'movement tricks.'
Re: The long, winding road for driverless cars
#10Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's because EVs only work for a subset of driving needs (local commutes). If you need to drive long distances, even occasionally, you either need to own another car, or rent one. Either is at best suboptimal compared to owning one car that can do it all. When I can own an EV that will go 300-400 miles per charge and can be recharged in 5 minutes at any corner "station" I will think about it.
I thought the idea was that you could swap batteries, not sit there charging.
As far as I know no one has implemented that yet. Tesla has superchargers around the country, but those are charge based not exchange based. They give +170 miles for a 30 minute charge, so not exactly a quick stop. The size and weight of the full battery pack may make it infeasible to change quickly. A half pack or 1/4 pack may be useful, but then the car has to be standardized/designed for that and you have to worry about getting worn batteries.