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China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says

nytimes.com

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Re: China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says

#161

Post by seanmcdirmid »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #140
kadfasd4324 wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are not. They are legally independent in many countries incl. the US, Japan, India (de facto), S. Korea, and Thailand.

> They are legally independent in many countries We're saying the same thing. Most central banks, e.g. the Federal Reserve, were created by law. The Congress giveth and the Congress taketh away. In any case, the comment I was replying to seemed to imply central banks are privately owned. That's what I was refuting.

Congress could technically issue a new law, but otherwise the president can't interfere beyond his ability to nominate replacements. What china really lacks is this separation of power, which is seen as a western imperialistic concept unsuited to china like rule of law via an independent judiciary.

Re: China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says

#162

Post by mistermann »

theprop wrote: post #26

Moody's also says that bundles of subprime mortgages are a AA+ investment.

Good point. If you think about it, where does Moody's, which at the end of the day is just a bunch of individual bureaucrats, many of which are likely writing the story they are told to write, get the idea that they have the expertise to second guess the architects of the largest, most complex (financially, culturally, psychologically, etc, etc, etc) transformation the world has ever witnessed?

Sorry, but until I see strong evidence to suggest otherwise, I'm going to assume the Chinese government knows better of how to grow an economy than its international critics.

Re: China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says

#164

Post by kadfasd4324 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #140
kadfasd4324 wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are not. They are legally independent in many countries incl. the US, Japan, India (de facto), S. Korea, and Thailand.

> They are legally independent in many countries We're saying the same thing. Most central banks, e.g. the Federal Reserve, were created by law. The Congress giveth and the Congress taketh away. In any case, the comment I was replying to seemed to imply central banks are privately owned. That's what I was refuting.

Fair enough.

I think the comment was implying that their policies, not being entirely democratically accountable - the effectiveness of these instruments themselves being arguable - are very likely going to be swayed by private interests.

I know there exists a revolving door b/w FDR and major Wall Street banks, but I'm not sure about other countries. I'd not be surprised if this were the case everywhere.

Edit:

'Princes of Yen' is a documentary that I found did a good job of illustrating the dangers of having such high powered unaccountable cabals (without all the BS that is typical in this genre).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5Ac7ap_MAY

Re: China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says

#165

Post by mistermann »

bitmapbrother wrote: post #84

>The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission estimates that by April 2010, of all mortgage-backed securities Moody's had rated triple-A in 2006, 73% were downgraded to junk. Anything Moody's says must be taken into context given their history of taking money to lie to and cheat investors. Their executives should have gone to prison and the company should have been liquidated a long timo ago.

Didn't you hear, no one could find enough evidence to convict anyone.

Re: China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says

#166

Post by mistermann »

rhizome wrote: post #107
siidooloo wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US economy will see a series of booms and busts. As all economies will. As will China's. When? Who knows? But I wouldn't be the one to bet on never.

Absolutely, but if the US (Moody's, even!) idea of China's cycle is valuable, then so must theirs be of ours.

Surely the analysis exists, but China isn't dumb enough to publish such things.

Re: China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says

#167

Post by mistermann »

axaxs wrote: post #132
vectorpush wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> you don't get to define fake news. Fake news is as simple as it sounds: articles that are factually incorrect. I'm happy to debate the nuance of the term fake news, but I think it's ironic that you presume to glibly assert your own definition of fake news right after exclaiming that one cannot do so (unless you're suggesting that CNN and myself, in particular, are forbidden from doing so). Anyway, fake news is not…

and tell me again, based on your own definition, how all news isn't fake news? Fake news was pushed heavily as a term by the 'liberal media' until it was pushed back against them and they threw a fit and tried to redefine it. In reality, all modern news is fake news. Every outlet has a left or right agenda, and shapes the news in that way based on clever editing, lies, and omissions. Let's call a spade a spade, and a…

> In reality, all modern news is fake news.

This is the correct answer. Surely there must be a blog out there that deconstructs "news" articles from highly respected sources pointing out what people think is news is actually propaganda....anyone?

Re: China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says

#168

Post by kybernetikos »

mistermann wrote: post #122
dis-sys wrote: post #63

Moody's? Is that the same credit rating agency which intentionally inflated credit rating for risky mortgage investment and eventually fined almost $1b[1]? It is just so funny that an agency that has already destroyed its own creditability is still running around and doing credit rating for others. [1] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-14/moodys-agrees-settleme...

Surprised this sentiment isn't more popular, they've proven themselves to be both dishonest and incompetent. This could also be state propoganda, the modern US being what it is.

> Surprised this sentiment isn't more popular, they've proven themselves to be both dishonest and incompetent.

Maybe because the question of whether they are dishonest and incompetent is a less interesting ad hominem (ad companis ?) than the question of whether China can or cannot sustain its debt-fueled binge.

Re: China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says

#169

Post by deepGem »

dis-sys wrote: post #63

Moody's? Is that the same credit rating agency which intentionally inflated credit rating for risky mortgage investment and eventually fined almost $1b[1]? It is just so funny that an agency that has already destroyed its own creditability is still running around and doing credit rating for others. [1] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-14/moodys-agrees-settleme...

I think the only credible credit rating agency is Standard and Poor's. It'll be interesting to see how they react to this downgrade by Moody's.

Re: China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says

#170

Post by mistermann »

lacampbell wrote: post #3

My countries economy is very closely tied to Chinas. I wonder what a Chinese financial crisis would look like here.

With the amount of leverage in the system and the culture of "privatize profits, socialize risks", if China hiccups the rest of the world is in very serious trouble.
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