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China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says

nytimes.com

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Re: China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says

#81

Post by axaxs »

vectorpush wrote: post #65
WillPostForFood wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know there is some fake news floating around with a chart that purports to show 57% of spending goes to the military, but it's been debunked. 28% goes to healthcare (Medicare), 25% to Social Security, 16% to Defense. http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/aug/...

I think you're correct to point out the inaccuracies of the image, however I disagree with the cavalier use of the term "fake news" to describe arbitrary instances of false or misleading information. The problem of "fake news" is actively perpetuated in part by the impulse to use the term as a catch-all pejorative for information we deem to be specious. Fake news is when a media source that claims to report an accura…

like CNN, you don't get to define fake news. Fake news is as simple as it sounds: articles that are factually incorrect. Sadly, from random images to all major media, everyone is guilty of it.

Re: China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says

#82

Post by draw_down »

VintageCool wrote: post #60
drcode wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems like smart people have been predicting that China's growth is unsustainable on a regular basis for at least 15 years... it's tough for an average HNer like myself to take the time to tell which "expert" is just blowing smoke and which expert truly has a handle on the salient facts- Guess all I can really do is simply wait and see who ends up being right...

To quote Keynes: The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Good rule of thumb if you're an individual investor. If you're China, well...

Re: China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says

#83

Post by TheSpiceIsLife »

vijucat wrote: post #68

The day after the Fukushima nuclear incident, the top-voted article on HN was an extremely confident-sounding article by an expert about how this was a minor incident, sure to be contained and forgotten. The comments in the article were dismissive about alarm. I remember feeling a sigh of relief that the experts had pronounced it a minor incident. As the days rolled by, the news about Fukushima turned from bad to wor…

Probably this https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2326726

The linked article headline "Fukushima is a triumph for nuke power: Build more reactors now!"

Re: China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says

#84

Post by bitmapbrother »

>The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission estimates that by April 2010, of all mortgage-backed securities Moody's had rated triple-A in 2006, 73% were downgraded to junk.

Anything Moody's says must be taken into context given their history of taking money to lie to and cheat investors. Their executives should have gone to prison and the company should have been liquidated a long timo ago.

Re: China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says

#85

Post by Nition »

zeamaize wrote: post #70
vijucat wrote: post #68

The day after the Fukushima nuclear incident, the top-voted article on HN was an extremely confident-sounding article by an expert about how this was a minor incident, sure to be contained and forgotten. The comments in the article were dismissive about alarm. I remember feeling a sigh of relief that the experts had pronounced it a minor incident. As the days rolled by, the news about Fukushima turned from bad to wor…

But Fukushima was a minor incident...

Your comment goes pretty hard against the popular opinion of what happened. It would be good if you could explain your reasoning.

Re: China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says

#86

Post by WillPostForFood »

vectorpush wrote: post #65
WillPostForFood wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know there is some fake news floating around with a chart that purports to show 57% of spending goes to the military, but it's been debunked. 28% goes to healthcare (Medicare), 25% to Social Security, 16% to Defense. http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/aug/...

I think you're correct to point out the inaccuracies of the image, however I disagree with the cavalier use of the term "fake news" to describe arbitrary instances of false or misleading information. The problem of "fake news" is actively perpetuated in part by the impulse to use the term as a catch-all pejorative for information we deem to be specious. Fake news is when a media source that claims to report an accura…

If it was random, you'd be right, But that image wasn't arbitrary, it was deliberately misleading and created to generate hype/outrage, and the numbers in it now come up as fact. It would be like taking a particular 5 year snapshot of temperatures that were declining, graphing it and labeling it "Climate Change Debunked."

I'm open to it being in some other category of fake, but then we need a label for it.

Re: China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says

#87

Post by ars »

zeusk wrote: post #69
hackuser wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed, to an extent (though not every 'expert' is equally reliable). Two ways I look at it: 1) Generally, the nature of a bubble is that nobody knows when it will pop. People knew about the U.S. asset bubble in the mid-2000s for years, but even those not caught up in the bubble mass psychology couldn't accurately predict when it would collapse. The same was true of the dot-com bubble around 2000. You can be right th…

> There was a stock broker looking for new business. He cold called 512 people (he must have been a quant); half he told to sell X stock, half he told to buy. The next week he called the 256 for whom he'd made the right prediction and did the same again: Half he told to sell, half to buy ... several weeks later he was down to 16 people. He called all of them and said, 'look, I was right 5 times in a row ...'. Except,…

It sounds more like a parable, not an actual story.

The point is that if enough people make prediction, some of them will right over and over and over - even though it's all random.

Re: China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says

#88

Post by JumpCrisscross »

Mtinie wrote: post #76
hackuser wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I wouldn't worry too much about the debts that they owe to the state. Why not? The state can forgive the debt, but when those resources disappear from the economy then many people will lose out.

> ...when those resources disappear from the economy then many people will lose out. My initial reaction is "...and?" Not because I'm trying to be obstinate or lacking empathy, but because I'm trying to hard visualize a situation (re: China) where those who lose out legitimately can do anything about it. They can't realistically move, or revolt. They can starve[0], but that's happened in the past and the State really…

> They can't realistically move, or revolt

Some can. Those are the ones who matter. No man rules alone--political leaders are only powerful insomuch as they can incentives or coërce others to act for them. A ruling class whose living standards is falling is a ruling class more willing to entertain other leaders.

"Certain types of unemployment are likely to be perceived as more politically costly than others - e.g. because returning to family farms acts as a kind of safety valve, even though a significant fall in living standards, unemployment among migrant workers is likely to be less costly, or because university graduates are presumably more communicative and have higher expectations, their unemployment might be more costly" [1].

[1] http://carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancialmarkets/66221

Re: China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says

#89

Post by skookum »

zeamaize wrote: post #70
vijucat wrote: post #68

The day after the Fukushima nuclear incident, the top-voted article on HN was an extremely confident-sounding article by an expert about how this was a minor incident, sure to be contained and forgotten. The comments in the article were dismissive about alarm. I remember feeling a sigh of relief that the experts had pronounced it a minor incident. As the days rolled by, the news about Fukushima turned from bad to wor…

But Fukushima was a minor incident...

Not sure if you are trying to be sarcastic, but: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Sc...

Re: China Can’t Sustain Its Debt-Fueled Binge, Moody’s Says

#90

Post by bottled_poe »

lucasschm wrote: post #44

For this subject I would like to offer this counter view: Why China bears are wrong: An interview with Andy Rothman ( http://supchina.com/sinica/china-bears-wrong-interview-andy-... ) As it is likely for someone to mention the Ghost cities, I recommend this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyBBQ-wF87M&list=PLxh5xkC0W-...

Given that this guy benefits financially from investor sentiment, I would take his advice with a very large grain of salt.
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