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Nightline Interview with Steve Jobs (1981) [video]

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Re: Nightline Interview with Steve Jobs (1981) [video]

#41

Post by MarkMc »

jakobegger wrote: post #9

What I find impressive is how confident Steve Jobs was in 1981 that soon everyone would have a computer -- just like in 2007, he was confident that everyone would soon have a smartphone. I wasn't around in 1981, but I know that in 2007 that wasn't a popular opinion. People talked about the "smartphone market" as if it would stay a fraction of the general phone market. In retrospect, it's pretty obvious that computers…

> People who tried VR seem to be pretty optimistic about it's future, but I don't see many uses except for games and maybe some specialised applications.

I've never tried VR or AR, but I'm confident that in 50 years we will spend most of our waking hours having an image projected onto our retina from a pair of glasses or contact lenses.

People now spend an hour or more each day commuting to work because face-to-face communication is so much more efficient than via the internet. But that advantage will slowly erode as VR/AR improves. Eventually most people will work remotely, and this will have huge consequences: People will no longer need to live in an expensive city; companies will be able to hire workers without regard to international borders.

Re: Nightline Interview with Steve Jobs (1981) [video]

#42

Post by stephen_g »

dualogy wrote: post #30
Markoff wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nokia smartphones were already pretty big at the time iPhone was released, innovative thing was capacitive touch screen instead of resistive so idea of smartphone was pretty safe bet, touchscreen was risky choice

Seems to me like Apple also furnished, perhaps not immediately but very quickly, a much superior developer story than.. "Nokia's smartphone" did.

It was an entire year before third party apps were allowed. I think the first iPhone and its stock OS and built-in apps stood pretty well on their own compared to what was around. I recall getting an iPod Touch (the iPhone wasn't available in Australia until the 3G) and the Google Maps application (at that point written by Apple) and mobile Safari were just mind blowing for the time (remember that not only were capacitive touch screens rare at that point, multitouch was still just something most people had only seen in research videos if at all).

Re: Nightline Interview with Steve Jobs (1981) [video]

#43

Post by rcpt »

jakobegger wrote: post #9

What I find impressive is how confident Steve Jobs was in 1981 that soon everyone would have a computer -- just like in 2007, he was confident that everyone would soon have a smartphone. I wasn't around in 1981, but I know that in 2007 that wasn't a popular opinion. People talked about the "smartphone market" as if it would stay a fraction of the general phone market. In retrospect, it's pretty obvious that computers…

Corporate universities. For example, the Google Brain Residency is already replacing grad school for a prestigious few. With how expensive and bureaucratic colleges​ have become more programs are bound to appear.

Re: Nightline Interview with Steve Jobs (1981) [video]

#44

Post by mixmastamyk »

aswanson wrote: post #39
superplussed wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In 1981 I'm not sure that it was so obvious that computers would take over the world, definitely not to the general public. For context, I was 10 years old at the time, and was the only kid in my school that owned a computer, a TI-99 that used a cassette drive as storage. It was so left-of-field to own a computer, that I remember not even really talking about it to my friends in school, because they had no context fo…

You're approximately 2 years older than me. Fast forward to the Commodore Christmas of 1985. Pretty much everyone I knew got a C_64 that year.Things changed quickly.

Video game consoles were very big in the early 80's so I don't think computers were much of a stretch.

Re: Nightline Interview with Steve Jobs (1981) [video]

#45

Post by MarkMc »

coldtea wrote: post #26
jakobegger wrote: post #9

What I find impressive is how confident Steve Jobs was in 1981 that soon everyone would have a computer -- just like in 2007, he was confident that everyone would soon have a smartphone. I wasn't around in 1981, but I know that in 2007 that wasn't a popular opinion. People talked about the "smartphone market" as if it would stay a fraction of the general phone market. In retrospect, it's pretty obvious that computers…

> What are the revolutionary things that are starting right now that will be obvious in retrospect? The decline of the middle class and a new developed world of low wage working slaves straight out of Dickens / Hugo?

It's counterintuitive, but the decline of the middle class has coincided with a significant increase in real income for poor people.

This video graph shows what I mean: https://twitter.com/conradhackett/status/857739376444493824

Re: Nightline Interview with Steve Jobs (1981) [video]

#46

Post by dyarosla »

MarkMc wrote: post #45
coldtea wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What are the revolutionary things that are starting right now that will be obvious in retrospect? The decline of the middle class and a new developed world of low wage working slaves straight out of Dickens / Hugo?

It's counterintuitive, but the decline of the middle class has coincided with a significant increase in real income for poor people. This video graph shows what I mean: https://twitter.com/conradhackett/status/857739376444493824

That graph is terrible and hard to decipher: from it alone I would not be able to say that there's any indication of a significant increase in real income for the poor.

Re: Nightline Interview with Steve Jobs (1981) [video]

#47

Post by mandeepj »

jakobegger wrote: post #9

What I find impressive is how confident Steve Jobs was in 1981 that soon everyone would have a computer -- just like in 2007, he was confident that everyone would soon have a smartphone. I wasn't around in 1981, but I know that in 2007 that wasn't a popular opinion. People talked about the "smartphone market" as if it would stay a fraction of the general phone market. In retrospect, it's pretty obvious that computers…

> What am I not seeing?

Quick ones -

1. Revolution in civil engineering - virtually viewing the final bridge before even laying one brick

2. Medical - performing any surgery to learn before even touching a patient

3. Theatre - previewing your setup and practice like it is live

4. Speakers - practicing your speech before thousands of people (of course, virtual)

Re: Nightline Interview with Steve Jobs (1981) [video]

#48

Post by MarkMc »

dyarosla wrote: post #46
MarkMc wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's counterintuitive, but the decline of the middle class has coincided with a significant increase in real income for poor people. This video graph shows what I mean: https://twitter.com/conradhackett/status/857739376444493824

That graph is terrible and hard to decipher: from it alone I would not be able to say that there's any indication of a significant increase in real income for the poor.

OK that's a fair point. But suppose instead I said, "the percentage of the population living on less than $50k per year in real terms has dropped by about a quarter since 1971". Does the graph support that statement?

Re: Nightline Interview with Steve Jobs (1981) [video]

#49

Post by melling »

superplussed wrote: post #14
jakobegger wrote: post #9

What I find impressive is how confident Steve Jobs was in 1981 that soon everyone would have a computer -- just like in 2007, he was confident that everyone would soon have a smartphone. I wasn't around in 1981, but I know that in 2007 that wasn't a popular opinion. People talked about the "smartphone market" as if it would stay a fraction of the general phone market. In retrospect, it's pretty obvious that computers…

In 1981 I'm not sure that it was so obvious that computers would take over the world, definitely not to the general public. For context, I was 10 years old at the time, and was the only kid in my school that owned a computer, a TI-99 that used a cassette drive as storage. It was so left-of-field to own a computer, that I remember not even really talking about it to my friends in school, because they had no context fo…

That's because they were expensive in 1981. When did the C64 drop to $199? 1982, 1983? That's when I got mine. Actually, I paid $299 and it dropped to $199 a few weeks later.

Re: Nightline Interview with Steve Jobs (1981) [video]

#50

Post by dyarosla »

MarkMc wrote: post #48
dyarosla wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That graph is terrible and hard to decipher: from it alone I would not be able to say that there's any indication of a significant increase in real income for the poor.

OK that's a fair point. But suppose instead I said, "the percentage of the population living on less than $50k per year in real terms has dropped by about a quarter since 1971". Does the graph support that statement?

If you do use the graph as reference, it is actually more like the percentage dropped by ~ 11.5% (this is by counting out the cumulative percentage represented by each bar)- which is not at all what you would eyeball it at. Like I said, really bad graph to showcase anything.
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