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Ask HN: In the next 5 years which markets will grow the most and why?

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31–40 of 81 posts

Re: Ask HN: In the next 5 years which markets will grow the most and why?

#33
post #23

Person tracking. We're going through something similar to the industrial revolution, lots of people will lose their job to AI (or still be employed, but with significantly lower wages - even previously untouchable professions like lawyers, doctors and programmers). To avoid riots, these people will be fed either through existing welfare programs or new basic-income style ones. But the old guard will want to make sure…

Maybe in the next 50 years, but not the next 5. There's about a 10-1 marketing to actual breakthrough ratio for AI changing our economy. I agree it will eventually, and has made some inroads, but it won't anytime soon to the extent where we have to solve problems of demographic shifts.

There are few people I'm aware of who think to the contrary who are actually working at a technical level in the field of AI, and not founders of a startup riding buzzword funding or who have financial or PR interests to hype AI.

I'll add a caveat that the invention of general AI would accelerate this timeline. I think it will require paradigm shifts, not feature-augmented/ exotic ensembles of neural networks with RL layers, or other approaches possible with current techniques, but think it is still more possible, sooner than AI skeptics believe, but still beyond 5 years.

Re: Ask HN: In the next 5 years which markets will grow the most and why?

#34

Cryptocurrency. Have you sent someone money internationally before? How about across different banks? Typical transfers process at around 3-5 days. With the help of cryptocurrencies like Ripple, Steller and the like. Transfers happen in seconds. This will grow because now, banks will utilize this technology to get rid of the old one (Swift anyone?) and will save banks lots of time and money.

Crypto currency is very useful for transfers to difficult regimes and across many borders but I fail to see the case for a value add for distributed trust between banks (since there's generally an existing trust model anyway). There are other distributed technologies on the horizon where a cryptographic ledger is going to be super useful, but I don't see it for banks.

Re: Ask HN: In the next 5 years which markets will grow the most and why?

#35
post #15

Some mode of online social interaction that seems ridiculous now but will seem obvious in retrospect. This will be milked for ads and acquired by a big player while me-toos nibble the ends in the aftermath. The market will grow from zero to millions in this time, but it will be entirely consumed by one of the big five and everyone will just think of it as a Google feature or something.

You've just described 2nd and 3rd generation AR

Re: Ask HN: In the next 5 years which markets will grow the most and why?

#36

Cryptocurrency. Have you sent someone money internationally before? How about across different banks? Typical transfers process at around 3-5 days. With the help of cryptocurrencies like Ripple, Steller and the like. Transfers happen in seconds. This will grow because now, banks will utilize this technology to get rid of the old one (Swift anyone?) and will save banks lots of time and money.

> How about across different banks?

This is a solved problem in most of the world, except for US and Canada

(Inside SEPA they're almost like a domestic transaction as well though it takes a couple a days)

Re: Ask HN: In the next 5 years which markets will grow the most and why?

#38
a reaction to technology overreach in ours lives. People are sick of their phones, laptops, sleep tracking, social media. We want to reclaim our mind back. There is place in LA that does Buddhist retreat where you sit in silence for 1 week, its booked 8 months in advance.

Re: Ask HN: In the next 5 years which markets will grow the most and why?

#39
post #27

India. Because it will go from 100mn internet users to 1200 mn, enabled by a massive 4G/fiber deployment currently underway.

Their economy has also been growing at about 7% per year. That's 40% over 5 years, which is around a trillion dollars (more in PPP).

Re: Ask HN: In the next 5 years which markets will grow the most and why?

#40

Cryptocurrency. Have you sent someone money internationally before? How about across different banks? Typical transfers process at around 3-5 days. With the help of cryptocurrencies like Ripple, Steller and the like. Transfers happen in seconds. This will grow because now, banks will utilize this technology to get rid of the old one (Swift anyone?) and will save banks lots of time and money.

I send through transferwise. It's very fast and the exchange rates are very close to the forex rates - it was a lot easier and cheaper than using bitcoin.

The trick is to match flows of cash so they money isnt actually transferred internationally - my cash from the uk was sent to someone else in the uk and my US bank account was credited from some other US-based bank.

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