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Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

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Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I must not have made my point well. Sure, you could do that and maybe you would. However, most people who didn't earn their money don't. Most of those same people think the rich "do nothing" and make money. It's this kind of ignorance that causes bullshit class warfare where it doesn't exist.

Are lottery winners the majority among people that don't earn their money?

No, but they are a good example because they are usually not accustom to wealth and thus more likely to believe (like the OP) that wealthy people just sit on a pile of cash and buy exotic sports cars while doing hookers and blow 24/7.

You don't often hear wealthy people complain about other wealthy people because they know how hard it is to stay wealthy.

It is a skill to make money with money.

Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think jazzyk was hinting that - with enough pay, people will do what they can to make themselves qualified. There's also the option of choosing the best people they get and start training them internally to make them qualified.

Sadly I think you vastly over estimate what the majority of people will do. There is an energized minority of people who will change skill sets as their employment needs warrant or simply because they need a new challenge. there are many who are just willing to grouse about their situation and not, how do you change them?

When I hang out in Oregon, I am told there are still fishermen waiting for the fish to come back or forestry workers waiting for the spotted owl to exit the endangered species list so they can go back to clear-cutting. Realistically, these anecdotal situations are so old, these workers may be "retired" in some sense now. Yet it reinforces the idea that maybe workers don't like to change from one skill set to another. And if the situation was, IBM Watson ate all the software engineering jobs but a new labor-intensive wood products industry with lots of outdoor, heavy-lifting work had sprung up in my town, I'm not sure I'd be eager to make the switch.

Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electrical Engineer true. Software Dev though? I just googledo nline 30 seconds ago and theres free courses titled "Free online course to learn Tensorflow" "same for Elastic Search" "intro to VR" "Intro to Python" "App dev" etc...these are all free and accessible to the same people who work at coffee shops and browse twitter and facebook..... So would it take 10 years for these people to learn the skills? I think the…

Hm, I'm a software engineer with nearly 10 years of experience but to get a job not in web development I estimate it would take at least 6 months of nights and weekends on a skill area such as machine learning, data science, distributed systems, data engineering, etc to be qualified in the eyes of employers. It's quite difficult to demonstrate qualifications to employers, I specialize in type theory and devote my nig…

I'm not arguing with you on any of these points.

I'm not saying its fair. I'm saying I think the biggest tech companies now never had the intention of opressing poor people and we have as a society found ourselves, as we always seem to do in quite a complex situation where its not easy to find one person or company we can point the finger to and say "its all your fault"

In regards to you conflation that not screwing up in highschool requires having better minds bodies and home environments, I grew up on welfare, in a trailor park, was the first person in my family to graduate highschool, and I juts liked to learn, but I constantly get shot down by people who drank and threw things at teachers and ignored me that not only do I not deserve the life I worked for, but my personal choices are an explicity effort to oppress them, and my success in life is a continual punishment to them for their own choices.

You don't need to be rich to decide you want to be different than your surroundings, but yes often people assume my level of success is because I must have come from a good family, and I couldn't possibly understand the hell of growing up in a backwoods south Georgia trailor park where noone went anywhere.

I agree, once choices are made, its hard to undue them. I have friends with this story: You got drunk in highschool one night, your girlfriend decides to keep the baby. You both barely passed highschool. Life is going to be a struggle to make it work because you made some bad choices, and If I had the power to not have these people live their lives for the next 10 yrs recovering from their mistakes, I would change it in a heartbeat.

All I know is I chose to take less risky choices and maybe thats because of my personality and I'm calibrated differently or maybe not. Who knows, but I think the attitude of people blaming and demonizing successful people is destructive to the very people who are experiencing socioeconomic inequality.

I've definitely distanced myself from people who demonized me when otherwise I would have remained friends, and I offered to pay for my little brother to go to college after I graduated, he was a senior in highschool at the time but he said he "just didnt want to work as hard as me"

I tried as hard as I could to convince him otherwise because hes a smart kid, but he cares more about fitting in and fitting in at his age in his environment means not trying, and being in a garage band, and dating girls who don't do anything with their lives.

I love my little brother with all my heart, and I have the ability to financially support him todo whatever he wants to do, but he chooses not to.

When and if he comes around and ten years asking for help, and I hope he never has to because he does well on his own, I will help. Will it be easier for him by then? no.

How much control do I have over this? I don't know.

Noone knows the answer but I see our society degrading into fingerpointing and the haves and the have notes.

But from experience I've never met more supportive good hearted people than I have in college and in places of higher education, and its hard for me having been on both sides to make my hometown friends feel better about their assumptions that all my "new friends" are evil and wake up every morning with a newly devised plan about how to squeeze more pennies out of their paychecks.

I experience alot of what my exboyfriend use to call the racist thing. He noticed after 3 years of dating me, and coming from a rich upscale family in the Barkshires, that he told me he thought it was funny that he noticed his family is more subconsciously without meaning to be racist than I am. He meant that while his family was very liberal good hearted, voted for Bernie, grow gardens and spend their time teaching at disadvantaged school and being frugal with their money he said they had never lived in the ghetto like me, so when I had some choice words for some girl who was trying to beat me up, it wasnt because she was black, it was because she was trying to beat me up, and in fact I had many black friends at my school, and his town had 1 black person at his school.

His family was the kind of family who would make a minority feel out of place by trying too hard to make them not feel out of place, and I just judged people based on who they were, as people, and often being exposed to many different kinds, I find good and bad people to be rich and poor, and don't discriminate effort and character to be confound to income levels.

This was something he noticed and learned about his own family by living with me in comparison. Alot of people are at an impossible disadvantage and thats absolutely true. Alot of people are self destructive without meaning to be.

but alot of people are assholes, and jerks, and I'm not giving them a free pass because they are rich and can give me a good job anymore than I'm giving someone a free pass because they grew up in the same damn town as I did.

And its annoying to be lectured by people who grew up in constant privilege about my elitism regarding situations theyve never been in before.

I belive in equality, you know real like equality. As in, guys can be manipulative jerks but damn women can be too, and alot of women don't like me because I choose not to defend the choices of every woman on the planet because I'm a woman. I believe in equality that you can be an asshole and your income doesnt always determine that (but it can). I dont assume the character or motivations about a person based on their income level, and it's a little scary to me that in politics we are trending to that kind of subconscious assoication, and its even more disconcerting coming from recent ivy league grads working at google who grew up in rich suburbia connecticut, who think that if people in places like my hometown, had an extra $100 dollar in their weekly paycheck, the path for equality and a better life would be clear for them and everything would get better. I know its more complicated than that.

I don't think you "deserve" anything you. You dont deserve what you want or desire, you deserve what you do, and often times we all make mistakes including me. Mistakes don't bother me as much as how people respond to mistakes, and choose to use it as an opportunity for growth and I appreciate your dedication, but alot of people are not dedicated.

Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#104
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is true, high skilled employers have lots of trouble finding high skilled workers, and one of the main economic incentives driving gender and ethnic equality in high tech work places is the disadvantage of not being able to have the maximum amount of resources to pool skilled workforces from. They can't get enough qualified people.

>They can't get enough qualified people... ...for the price they are offering. There, fixed it for ya :-)

The ability to fill an opening by increasing salary does not disprove a skilled labor shortage.

Imagine a model economy of 10 companies with openings, and one person with the skills to fill them. All 10 companies can fill their openings by sequentially raising their salary offer to that person.

If you don't account for the openings that are created along the way (as the one person sequentially jumps for the higher salary), you'll have a mistaken impression there is no skilled labor shortage. After all, each company hired someone.

Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think jazzyk was hinting that - with enough pay, people will do what they can to make themselves qualified. There's also the option of choosing the best people they get and start training them internally to make them qualified.

I get what youre saying logicially and in general I don't disagree with you, but I want to pose a new way of thinking about this that may be unique to times previous and see what people think, because its a forming idea in my head, and I'm not sure its somethign I've settled on yet in general With software engineering specifically, given the amount of people who have access to the internet, lets say like unemployed y…

That is probably right for the people who chooses to play video game all day and withdraw in general, but for working people, the risk/required-investment maybe too high. I've also heard that employers do not like self-taught developers as much. There might also be a need for a check to see if development job is actually in high demand.

Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are lottery winners the majority among people that don't earn their money?

No, but they are a good example because they are usually not accustom to wealth and thus more likely to believe (like the OP) that wealthy people just sit on a pile of cash and buy exotic sports cars while doing hookers and blow 24/7. You don't often hear wealthy people complain about other wealthy people because they know how hard it is to stay wealthy. It is a skill to make money with money.

You switched to a statistical argument (However, most people who didn't earn their money don't.), you need statistical evidence, not examples.

Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#107
Basic economics? Pay and labor supply are part of a demand equation. If we leave it alone, pay will increase substatially in the next few years as labor runs short. Worse thing we could do is apply an external force to the system making it take longer to stabilize.

Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#108
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is true, high skilled employers have lots of trouble finding high skilled workers, and one of the main economic incentives driving gender and ethnic equality in high tech work places is the disadvantage of not being able to have the maximum amount of resources to pool skilled workforces from. They can't get enough qualified people.

>They can't get enough qualified people... ...for the price they are offering. There, fixed it for ya :-)

Yep, that's what a labor shortage looks like :) Labor can ask for a price that's higher than the ROI of their labor for many businesses. In comparison, there's an excess supply of unskilled labor so businesses can purchase unskilled labor for minimum wage. Those people survive but do not profit from their time investment, and cannot invest in acquiring skills (aka poverty trap).

The issue is that automation drives efficiency, but large corporations are buying most of the limited supply... which crushes smaller businesses and drives down wages of unskilled labor.

My answer is that we need to invest in adult education and infrastructure. The labor market is struggling to adapt to demand because the cost of acquiring technical skills is prohibitively high for adults, and struggling consumers have undermined domestic manufacturing chains by both being unable to afford the output and unable to fund competitive infrastructure due to low wages.

We need to seek the healthy equilibrium is where most labor has enough demand to personally profit, and enough supply that most businesses can afford to compete.

Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#109
post #11

Uh, because we are all collectively being fleeced by a ruling class extracting obscene amounts of wealth from our work without doing anything useful themselves. Never fool yourself into thinking you'll get anything back from these vampires.

We had a ruling class in the 90s as well, but wages increased. So the question is what is different about today?

Wages increased temporarily. When accounted for reduced labor force and productivity, real wages have not risen for almost 35 years.

Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#110
post #5

The rules regarding unemployment statistics are entirely designed to be favorable. Citizens who are unemployed for greater than X months (where X is a figure I don't currently recall) stop being considered unemployed for the sake of this stat. Likewise, homeless populations are not counted. Not everyone who is homeless is necessarily unemployed, I guess, but it's patently ridiculous not to include any homeless in une…

Sorry but that's not true at all. You are counted as unemployed if you do not have a job and are actively looking for work. There is no "cut-off." Look up the definition at the BLS, there is no excuse for spreading this crap through laziness. If you stop looking for jobs you are not considered unemployed as someone not actively seeking work is not considered to be in the labor force. That is a different issue entirel…

"You are counted as unemployed if you do not have a job and are actively looking for work."

Don't you actually have to register with the government and tell them you are without a job and looking for work in order to count as unemployed?

A lot more people could be without a job and looking for work without having told the government about it. So the government figures likely underestimate true unemployment, even if we ignore those people who are without work and have given up hope of finding a job and so have stopped looking, and those people who are without work and don't want to work or can't work for some reason.

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