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Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

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Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#71
post #21

The widely published unemployment number only measures the dynamics of layoffs (how many people became unemployed in the window of the past 6 months). The actual labor force participation is what counts. And therein lies the answer to the "why isn't pay rising" question: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-pa... (switch to the 10-year time view)

How does a declining labor force participation explain stagnant wages? As participation (supply) goes down, wages should start to go up (to entice people back into the labor force). What we have is declining participation AND stagnant wages.

So you are saying you actually agree with the FED's assessment ? It essentially states that anyone who doesn't find a job in 6 months therefore isn't looking for a job.

If you don't agree with that, then there aren't any good stats, hence the use of the labor participation number, as the "default" goto for unemployment.

If you want alternatives, may I recommend:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

This does suggest that U-5 at least is a more realistic figure, or perhaps the average of U-5 + U-6. That would make real unemployment somewhere between 6 and 7.8, and indicates plenty of slack in the labor force.

Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#72
Why does anyone use the raw wage growth numbers (which look bad) not the inflation adjusted numbers (which are healthy) when comparing historical wage growth to modern wage growth? Wage growth only matters in relation to inflation. It seems extremely disingenuous but maybe I'm missing something.

Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

hmm, Well, I was specifically referencing the top 5 biggest tech companies, and the pay may seem low to the people who have been working there fresh out of college but its still relatively high pay compared to most other industries with people of the same academic and skill level but in a different industry. They interview alot of people and the people don't turn down the jobs because the pay isn't enough, they don't…

I think jazzyk was hinting that - with enough pay, people will do what they can to make themselves qualified. There's also the option of choosing the best people they get and start training them internally to make them qualified.

The problem is, "make themselves qualified" to be good electrical engineers or even software engineers takes on the order of 10-15 years.

If tomorrow every electrical engineer salary went 10 times higher, supply would still take 10 years to improve.

Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#74
post #5

The rules regarding unemployment statistics are entirely designed to be favorable. Citizens who are unemployed for greater than X months (where X is a figure I don't currently recall) stop being considered unemployed for the sake of this stat. Likewise, homeless populations are not counted. Not everyone who is homeless is necessarily unemployed, I guess, but it's patently ridiculous not to include any homeless in une…

I remember hearing something on the radio years ago here in the UK that really caught my eye. There was a government project to count the number of homeless on a particular day. When the stats came out, the number had fallen despite anybody who ever walked around a town centre knowing the numbers had gone up. So the radio station interviewed a local outreach worker who had been tasked to get the stats in her town. Sh…

I've seen a similar game played where the criteria was "have you been without housing for over a year?". Magically the number of homeless fell by half overnight!

Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

hmm, Well, I was specifically referencing the top 5 biggest tech companies, and the pay may seem low to the people who have been working there fresh out of college but its still relatively high pay compared to most other industries with people of the same academic and skill level but in a different industry. They interview alot of people and the people don't turn down the jobs because the pay isn't enough, they don't…

I think jazzyk was hinting that - with enough pay, people will do what they can to make themselves qualified. There's also the option of choosing the best people they get and start training them internally to make them qualified.

I get what youre saying logicially and in general I don't disagree with you, but I want to pose a new way of thinking about this that may be unique to times previous and see what people think, because its a forming idea in my head, and I'm not sure its somethign I've settled on yet in general

With software engineering specifically, given the amount of people who have access to the internet, lets say like unemployed young men in theirs 20s working in the food industry or something, working part time and play video games for 40 hrs a week. If you have access to an xbox, then you have access to free online courses to learn machine learning, intro to programming, the entire internet where you can openly asked the internet questions and try to figure out a skill thats valuable and in software specifically, have multiple free venues of learning it.

But theres a lot of people who don't do that and don't take advantage of it, but also protest wages in silicon valley. There are people who work at coffee shops 20 hrs a week by choice, and go hiking by choice and had access to the same resources everyone else did, and came even alot from middle class to upper class homes, but don't want to learn high demand skills, and in fact protest them.

in this case, I'd say the pay is not only high enough, but it's so high they dislike the fact that not doing the work to get those high paying jobs is decreasing the quality of their life relative to everyone else around them.

obviously outliers exist, but what is it about software development, that, atleast for the population who can afford internet, and video game consoles, makes it so elite people arent motivated to learn.

I think some people don't want to learn or put in the effort, but also don't want to experience the reduction in quality of life as a result of other people putting in the effort.I think those same people protest more as the wages are increased, as they misinterpret the market signals for need as abusive to their lifestyle in which they choose to not go learn high demand skills.

Could this be valid in some cases?

Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#76
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is true, high skilled employers have lots of trouble finding high skilled workers, and one of the main economic incentives driving gender and ethnic equality in high tech work places is the disadvantage of not being able to have the maximum amount of resources to pool skilled workforces from. They can't get enough qualified people.

>They can't get enough qualified people... ...for the price they are offering. There, fixed it for ya :-)

I'd say it's 90% the pay issue. The remaining 10% may be real. You often hear on HN that in interviews, after the candidate has passed the phone and CV screens and is actually in front of you, cannot even code up fizzbuzz in under an hour. I mean, that's pretty bad to not be able to do when you paid for a degree or a dojo or whatever to 'teach' you. I think that there really IS something of an issue there, but I agree with you, it's almost entirely about the money.

Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

hmm, Well, I was specifically referencing the top 5 biggest tech companies, and the pay may seem low to the people who have been working there fresh out of college but its still relatively high pay compared to most other industries with people of the same academic and skill level but in a different industry. They interview alot of people and the people don't turn down the jobs because the pay isn't enough, they don't…

I think jazzyk was hinting that - with enough pay, people will do what they can to make themselves qualified. There's also the option of choosing the best people they get and start training them internally to make them qualified.

[deleted]

Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#78
post #50

Well, if Labor is a function of supply and demand, then it tells us that supply of willing labor is happy to work at all , even if wages aren't rising. Turned around, in a market where people are desperate for work, corporations have no incentive to raise wages. Still, this is overly simplistic. The problem in my mind is that unemployment rate is reflective only of those looking for work, and labor force participatio…

If you are interested in learning how labor markets are taught in macro today, check out these slides from Acemoglu of MIT:

http://economics.mit.edu/files/10284

Labor market models are much more about flows, and frictions to those flows, rather than "static" views of labor supply and demand.

When I was studying econ, I found some of these models and equations to be the most well thought-out and powerful tools presented whereas a lot of the other things I had to learn were toy models or very, very far removed from reality.

Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#79
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think jazzyk was hinting that - with enough pay, people will do what they can to make themselves qualified. There's also the option of choosing the best people they get and start training them internally to make them qualified.

The problem is, "make themselves qualified" to be good electrical engineers or even software engineers takes on the order of 10-15 years. If tomorrow every electrical engineer salary went 10 times higher, supply would still take 10 years to improve.

Electrical Engineer true. Software Dev though? I just googledo nline 30 seconds ago and theres free courses titled

"Free online course to learn Tensorflow"

"same for Elastic Search"

"intro to VR"

"Intro to Python"

"App dev"

etc...these are all free and accessible to the same people who work at coffee shops and browse twitter and facebook.....

So would it take 10 years for these people to learn the skills?

I think the market signals are being interpreted as intentionally divisive to people who don't have the skills, instead of a need for the population of people who have the skill to increase, and thus they protest the market signals as a response instead of utilizing free and open resources on top of their already paid for internet utilties provided by these relatively highly paid workers, to make it free and easier and more accessible for other people to learn.

Sure learning these skills outside of a part time barista job could take 2-3 years, but even an entry level software position at a just a-okay tech firm who starts them out at say $50k/yr with no benefits, is still higher than working minimum wage, by a large degree.

I'm not sure everyone who is experiencing a disadvantage from the pay difference wants to increase their skill level, or learn new skills.

There are plenty of people who do and work long hours and cant, but there are also plenty of young people who do not, and choose not to and make other lifestyle decisions, which is fine with me, as long as they don't throw rocks at me because I chose to do my math homework in highschool when they chose to go out and drink every school night. Sometimes peoples life choices do have an impact, and its not always the responisibiltiy of the most successful companinies in the world to calibrate everyone elses life to the minimum starting salary of the most skilled workers on the planet.

I don't know what IS a good solution, but I feel this is an unrealistic expectation. Regardless, these companies are making an effort to do this anyways as they are in need of this skills and creating venues to take people from 0 to 1 with never having known anything about software or math.

Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#80
post #27
post #11

Uh, because we are all collectively being fleeced by a ruling class extracting obscene amounts of wealth from our work without doing anything useful themselves. Never fool yourself into thinking you'll get anything back from these vampires.

I completely agree that there is a ruling class, and that they extract an obscene amount of rent just because they can. I also happen to think they create a ton of value. I just don't believe that justifies them making us 'human capital'.

>I also happen to think they create a ton of value.

That others couldn't?

You don't need to be ruling or vampire to create value. Just to be innovative.

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