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Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

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Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#21
The widely published unemployment number only measures the dynamics of layoffs (how many people became unemployed in the window of the past 6 months).

The actual labor force participation is what counts.

And therein lies the answer to the "why isn't pay rising" question:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-pa...

(switch to the 10-year time view)

Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#22
post #5

The rules regarding unemployment statistics are entirely designed to be favorable. Citizens who are unemployed for greater than X months (where X is a figure I don't currently recall) stop being considered unemployed for the sake of this stat. Likewise, homeless populations are not counted. Not everyone who is homeless is necessarily unemployed, I guess, but it's patently ridiculous not to include any homeless in une…

Sorry but that's not true at all. You are counted as unemployed if you do not have a job and are actively looking for work. There is no "cut-off." Look up the definition at the BLS, there is no excuse for spreading this crap through laziness.

If you stop looking for jobs you are not considered unemployed as someone not actively seeking work is not considered to be in the labor force. That is a different issue entirely and you will have to look at a different statistic. There are different types of "unemployment rate" and maybe what you want is U-4 or U-5 which include discouraged workers. Either way you can not expect a single number to encapsulate something as large and complex as the US labor market.

Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#23
post #11

Uh, because we are all collectively being fleeced by a ruling class extracting obscene amounts of wealth from our work without doing anything useful themselves. Never fool yourself into thinking you'll get anything back from these vampires.

So if you were given 25 million dollars you would automagically make obscene amounts of money with no effort?

History shows otherwise with a very high rate of bankruptcies from lottery winners.

Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#24
post #21

The widely published unemployment number only measures the dynamics of layoffs (how many people became unemployed in the window of the past 6 months). The actual labor force participation is what counts. And therein lies the answer to the "why isn't pay rising" question: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-pa... (switch to the 10-year time view)

U-3 is the commonly published "unemployment rate," aka the thing that is currently 4.4%. I don't think many people actually looks at U-1. You can get a better picture by looking at U-5 or U-6 together with the participation rate (LFPR).

Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#25
post #9

Eight possible explanations and not a single mention of the word "deflation." The Japanese have a long history of low unemployment and deflation working together: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/unemployment-rate Maybe the idea that lower unemployment always leads to inflation is just wrong. For now, wage decreases have been masked by cuts to employer-funded health insurance programs. Eventually, there will be…

Exactly. The demand for labor and the demand for the US dollar could be balancing labor costs.

Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#26
post #5

The rules regarding unemployment statistics are entirely designed to be favorable. Citizens who are unemployed for greater than X months (where X is a figure I don't currently recall) stop being considered unemployed for the sake of this stat. Likewise, homeless populations are not counted. Not everyone who is homeless is necessarily unemployed, I guess, but it's patently ridiculous not to include any homeless in une…

Sorry but that's not true at all. You are counted as unemployed if you do not have a job and are actively looking for work. There is no "cut-off." Look up the definition at the BLS, there is no excuse for spreading this crap through laziness. If you stop looking for jobs you are not considered unemployed as someone not actively seeking work is not considered to be in the labor force. That is a different issue entirel…

    Either way you can not expect a single number to encapsulate something as large and complex as the US labor market.
This is true, but part of the problem is with the media and government communications often failing to engage with this fact properly, and instead focusing on a single metric which is often misinterpreted.

Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#27
post #11

Uh, because we are all collectively being fleeced by a ruling class extracting obscene amounts of wealth from our work without doing anything useful themselves. Never fool yourself into thinking you'll get anything back from these vampires.

I completely agree that there is a ruling class, and that they extract an obscene amount of rent just because they can. I also happen to think they create a ton of value. I just don't believe that justifies them making us 'human capital'.

Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#28
post #21

The widely published unemployment number only measures the dynamics of layoffs (how many people became unemployed in the window of the past 6 months). The actual labor force participation is what counts. And therein lies the answer to the "why isn't pay rising" question: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-pa... (switch to the 10-year time view)

U-3 is the commonly published "unemployment rate," aka the thing that is currently 4.4%. I don't think many people actually looks at U-1. You can get a better picture by looking at U-5 or U-6 together with the participation rate (LFPR).

Edited my comment to remove the U1, U3 reference, not to confuse everyone. The point still stands, though.

Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#29
post #5

The rules regarding unemployment statistics are entirely designed to be favorable. Citizens who are unemployed for greater than X months (where X is a figure I don't currently recall) stop being considered unemployed for the sake of this stat. Likewise, homeless populations are not counted. Not everyone who is homeless is necessarily unemployed, I guess, but it's patently ridiculous not to include any homeless in une…

From the article, "Only 78.6 percent of people age 25-54 are employed" yet we say unemployment is at 4.4. It very much smells like unemployment, as we count it, is a bad metric and that explains what looks like a paradox in economic principles.

Not everyone outside that 78.6 is employable... disabled, students, retired (some are that lucky), stay at home moms, etc.

The question is: Who is employable (outside of disability, student, etc) and not for legitimate reasons.

The U3 (4.4), as I understand it, is more a "moving target" of recent numbers... it's the number of recently unemployed and still looking

the U6 (8.6%) should be closer to "real" unemployment since it includes discouraged, marginal and part time workers (those under utilized).

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

Re: Unemployment in the U.S. Is Falling, So Why Isn’t Pay Rising?

#30
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry but that's not true at all. You are counted as unemployed if you do not have a job and are actively looking for work. There is no "cut-off." Look up the definition at the BLS, there is no excuse for spreading this crap through laziness. If you stop looking for jobs you are not considered unemployed as someone not actively seeking work is not considered to be in the labor force. That is a different issue entirel…

Either way you can not expect a single number to encapsulate something as large and complex as the US labor market. This is true, but part of the problem is with the media and government communications often failing to engage with this fact properly, and instead focusing on a single metric which is often misinterpreted.

It depends on your media. On NPR whenever I hear unemployment discussed they almost always immediately follow it with changes in wage and the number of people who are not seeking employment. This doesn't give any particular number a "things are getting worse or better" black and white consequence but that is why I like getting my news there.
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