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Guaranteed Minimum What?

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Re: Guaranteed Minimum What?

#351

Post by moxious »

wvenable wrote: post #55
chris_va wrote: post #33

I realize that UBI is a very popular position on HN, so I am hoping someone here has given this more thought and can comment. My problem with UBI is that all tests to date look great, but have only been done on a micro level. The fundamental issue I would like addressed is the macro scale inflation you would expect when redistributing trillions of dollars without commensurate economic value being created directly. Mo…

I think one of the biggest problems in the world right now is how much money is simply captured and not moving through the economy. A huge amount of money is sitting around adding very little economic value. Redistribute that money to people who will use it to consume products and services and you get a much more active economy.

Where is this money that is captured and not moving? Most invested dollars are still moving in one form or another. Invest in a company's bond, and they're using that money to build a factory.

Re: Guaranteed Minimum What?

#352

Post by kristianp »

fasquoika wrote: post #241
redleggedfrog wrote: post #63

I hate to say this, and this is in no way a troll, but I believe the solution for this will eventually be to kill the poor. Not directly, at least I don't think, but through lack of health care, lack of shelter, lack of education, poor diet, use in waging war, incarceration, and probably once they get desperate and try and get theirs, being labelled terrorists. People who have money, and therefore power, in the Unite…

> this is in no way a troll Really? Because this is this the basic premise behind one of the greatest examples of satire in history...

> Really? Because this is this the basic premise behind one of the greatest examples of satire in history...

This one?

A Modest Proposal

For Preventing The Children of Poor People in Ireland From Being A Burden to Their Parents or Country, and For Making Them Beneficial to The Public

By Jonathan Swift (1729)

http://art-bin.com/art/omodest.html

Re: Guaranteed Minimum What?

#353

Post by prostoalex »

bitJericho wrote: post #215
lordlimecat wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US federal budget is 3.8 Trillion. Using parent's numbers, you would need $5.3 Trillion to just cover healthcare + housing, assuming zero inflation. What tax rate are you proposing will genenerate $5.3 Trillion off of taxing the rich?

Trivial. Tax the top 1 percent at least 75 percent for about 2 trillian or more once you close off loopholes, ban insurance companies altogether and make hospitals publish their prices, and require estimates for any work to be done, and you suddenly have a balanced budget.

> make hospitals publish their prices

They already do http://www.oshpd.ca.gov/Chargemaster/

> ban insurance companies

So lose the negotiating advantage and be forced to haggle on prices on a case-by-case basis?

Re: Guaranteed Minimum What?

#354

Post by qub1t »

loup-vaillant wrote: post #219
lordlimecat wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The same way we have every time an industry has disappeared in the past: by participating in the newly opened industries. Is it rough when (for example) shipping crates put a bunch of longshoremen out of a job, when they are in their 50s and too old to easily retrain? Sure. But how many people now not only enjoy (as customers) the benefits that Amazon provides, but also enjoy the employment benefits of a massively ex…

You're looking at it with past-tinted glasses. This time is different, and the market won't solve it. Those newly opened industries have less people in them than the industries they replace. Mostly because our consumption doesn't increase as much as our efficiency does. Funny you mention Amazon. We enjoy their services, and they enjoy that expanded global market. And they do this by killing local businesses with thei…

50 years ago, who would have thought of search engine optimization as a job? Social media manager? Video game storyline writer?

I'm not saying that people who are displaced will easily be able to retrain to a new job. They will have a rough time, and that's something we need to address as a society.

But assuming that number of "jobs" for humans will decrease to zero is a big stretch. I think that even if we had robots that could take care of all our needs for us, humans would come up with jobs to occupy their time.

Re: Guaranteed Minimum What?

#355

Post by prostoalex »

ansible wrote: post #222
notahacker wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you think the fact people are renting property now is going to stop landlords putting the rent up when they know that their target market that's used to spending nearly all their income on rent now has a lot more to spend (and few more housing options than before)?

If poor people have income not tied to a specific location, I'm expecting that they're going to move to lower-cost locations, rather than stay in expensive urban areas. So I further would expect that this will overall depress rents in urban areas.

> If poor people have income not tied to a specific location, I'm expecting that they're going to move to lower-cost locations, rather than stay in expensive urban areas.

So why haven't we seen a massive exodus to Detroit or Mississippi? Outside of coastal areas US already tends to be affordable and accessible.

Re: Guaranteed Minimum What?

#356

Post by grondilu »

> Instead circumstances are going to overwhelm us until enough of the population is miserable enough to demand real change.

I'm not sure. During the great depression the USA did not embrace communism. Why should it be different with automation?

Re: Guaranteed Minimum What?

#357

Post by [deleted] »

coldtea wrote: post #163
paulddraper wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 99% of movies today are crap Survivorship bias. They always have been.

"Things are always the same" fallacy. No, there are periods that are artistically more fruitful and interesting that others, and the history of art knows and documents several of them.

[deleted]

Re: Guaranteed Minimum What?

#358

Post by [deleted] »

ethbro wrote: post #265
cbanek wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like I said in my original comment, even if the people are great, they are usually doing a very boring repetitive job. And even if they aren't a "bump on a log," many employers these days honestly want them to be. (liability, efficiency) They really want a robot that is cheaper, not a person. There are so many rules about what an employee can and should do now, especially for lower level jobs. What they can say, how…

I'd argue that those companies that have squeezed the humanity out of their workers are the first ones getting dislocated by the market. E.g. Blockbuster being bankrupt and our local independent video store doing just fine. Or McDonald's vs Waffle House. If you play was "we can provide a worse service for less" then yes, you're going to get steamrolled by automation. If your business is run around adding value (like…

[deleted]

Re: Guaranteed Minimum What?

#359

Post by Animats »

ebiester wrote: post #209
lordlimecat wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The same way we have every time an industry has disappeared in the past: by participating in the newly opened industries. Is it rough when (for example) shipping crates put a bunch of longshoremen out of a job, when they are in their 50s and too old to easily retrain? Sure. But how many people now not only enjoy (as customers) the benefits that Amazon provides, but also enjoy the employment benefits of a massively ex…

50% of the population have an IQ below 100. 16ish percent have an IQ below 85. What are they going to do? We've already essentially phased out the useful work that people under IQ 70 can do. It's likely that it's creeped up to 75 or 80, even. As these are automated, let's creep it up to 90. It also takes out those who are poor and have no branch on which to gain experience for their first job. If we have eliminated t…

That's the real issue. But you're not supposed to say that.

Re: Guaranteed Minimum What?

#360

Post by panic »

wbillingsley wrote: post #333
CJKinni wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> All sane UBI proposals don't create money, they just move money from rich people to poor people I'm not very educated in this, so correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding was that while UBI doesn't create money, but it can move money from people with a lower ratio of money-spent to money-made, to people with a higher ratio. If that's the case, the money that's actively being used should increase.

The main barrier to UBI is that the same groups in the population that are so in favour of it are also fiercely determined immigration must be open. And guess what happens to the first country to say at the same time "anyone can come here" and "we'll give anyone living here (not just a limited closed trial scheme) $40,000 per yer no-questions-asked". It may just be a transient effect (things might even out steady-sta…

You'd want to increase the level of income slowly over time so you can deal with problems like this as they arise. I don't think anyone's proposing an immediate $40k-per-year no-questions-asked grant to all residents.
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