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Solar Roof

tesla.com

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Re: Solar Roof

#191

Post by matt_wulfeck »

kcorbitt wrote: post #176
Reason077 wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Energy prices, and thus savings, are certain to increase over that 30 years too. Quite likely at a rate exceeding inflation.

Energy prices have been mostly flat relative to inflation for 40 years, and there's a reasonably good chance that they will start dropping appreciably (at least during peak daylight hours) as solar continues to make major inroads.

That's true in a lot of places but not really in California, where there's a lot of customers for solar. I don't need to go into the reasons why. It's California.

Re: Solar Roof

#192

Post by pfarnsworth »

pedrocr wrote: post #44
atourgates wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't really see the selling point, or value here. Tesla's calculator estimates $40,500 for a roof that generates half our power needs, and should provide $20,400 worth of energy over 30-years. Add in a PowerWall and federal tax credit, and I'm still losing $15,400 over 30-years. If I put that same $40,000 in an index fund that got the stock market's historical 7% average, and waited 30 years, I'd have $308,000. To…

>If I put that same $40,000 in an index fund that got the stock market's historical 7% average, and waited 30 years, I'd have $308,000. Are you doing the math all in present dollars? Because the return is 7% after inflation but >10% before. So you'd have >500.000 in 2047 dollars. In this case it's important to do that adjustment because you're doing an investment upfront for payoffs over 30 years so the value of mone…

You're not deducting income tax on the dividends.

Re: Solar Roof

#193

Post by jhall1468 »

canterburry wrote: post #149
greglindahl wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cite? Tesla (at the product launch) actually said it was about as much as buying a new, premium roof + electricity.

Exactly...cost was supposed to be a new premium roof (just the roof, no solar panels) and they are about 3 times more expensive than "just the roof". Unless they meant a "new roof" as in when you build a house from scratch and you don't have rafters or anything. If you have an existing roof you are redoing every 20 years or so, then this is definitely not the cost of a "new roof". So, which "new roof" are we talking…

> cost was supposed to be a new premium roof (just the roof, no solar panels)

That makes very little sense. You're making an apples to oranges comparison here. It would be absolutely impossible to pull that off. It's literally the premium roof + solar and you want it to be the same price as premium roof (thus, you want the solar hardware to cost nothing.

Only one of these generates electricity, thus saving you money and that must be included in the cost calculation in order to determine the actual cost.

Re: Solar Roof

#194

Post by xbmcuser »

atourgates wrote: post #31
blakesterz wrote: post #2

Yikes. I just signed a contract for a new roof here last month, it's going to cost about $12k. Just did the estimate for the Tesla Solar roof... $80,300, so $87k if I want the battery too. I can barely afford the $12 right now, the $80 is just so far over it's not even close, even with how much I save over the years in electricity. That being said, I love these things, so hoping it gets cheaper in the coming years.

I don't really see the selling point, or value here. Tesla's calculator estimates $40,500 for a roof that generates half our power needs, and should provide $20,400 worth of energy over 30-years. Add in a PowerWall and federal tax credit, and I'm still losing $15,400 over 30-years. If I put that same $40,000 in an index fund that got the stock market's historical 7% average, and waited 30 years, I'd have $308,000. To…

In 30 years how many times will you have to redo your roof I think one of Tesla solar roofs points was that many houses in the US have to reshingle. Although I still don't think it might be worth it for you.

Re: Solar Roof

#195

Post by pfarnsworth »

sndean wrote: post #50
timtadh wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where I live $80k is a significant portion of the cost of most houses. The price will be a significant barrier to entry for houses outside of hot real estate markets.

Yeah, my brother just bought a pretty large house for $100k, but I guess people in rural North Carolina aren't the target buyer of solar roofs anyway. I wonder on what price home would a $80k roof make sense? >$800k?

I have a $2M house, and I've been bitching and moaning for a year that a new roof cost us $20k.

Re: Solar Roof

#196

Post by owenversteeg »

11thEarlOfMar wrote: post #186
owenversteeg wrote: post #178

Holy shit, these comments. "My cars will make $24,000 per year" (in a comment justifying spending a quarter million dollars on Tesla products) "People don't understand how we can spend half their monthly income on one organic drink" (in a completely unrelated comment) "if I buy two Teslas my savings triple!" (another person justifying Tesla's marketing with some creative math) Sounds like something you'd hear from pr…

I'll bite... No, we are not talking about minimum wage earners as very few can own homes. They are not in the solar roof market. The context is home owners. In the US the average new car cost is $33,560. A $35,000 electric car is within reason and available on the market. A roof is a 30 year investment. Cars are owned for much less time and auto transport is likely to transition to electric over the next decade or tw…

So firstly, I just wanted to say you seemed like the most self-aware of anybody I quoted.

That aside though, c'mon. Sure, the average _new_ car cost might be $33k, but have you ever been poor? Or known anyone who is? Poor people don't buy cars... they buy used cars, use public transportation, walk or bike. Poor people cannot afford a seventy thousand dollar Tesla, or even a $35k hypothetical Tesla.

And a lot of people are homeowners. In the US (off my head) the homeownership rate is around 70%. Musk literally said that his solar roof would be cheaper than a standard roof. It is not. End of sentence. No discussion: no matter what crazy sci-fi-ocalypse scenario plays out an $80k roof will not save you money compared to a $12k roof and investing the change in an index fund.

Musk does a lot of cool stuff, and the roof is kinda cool, but we can't live in a reality distortion field.

Re: Solar Roof

#197

Post by Spooky23 »

Reason077 wrote: post #120
pedrocr wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If I put that same $40,000 in an index fund that got the stock market's historical 7% average, and waited 30 years, I'd have $308,000. Are you doing the math all in present dollars? Because the return is 7% after inflation but >10% before. So you'd have >500.000 in 2047 dollars. In this case it's important to do that adjustment because you're doing an investment upfront for payoffs over 30 years so the value of mone…

Energy prices, and thus savings, are certain to increase over that 30 years too. Quite likely at a rate exceeding inflation.

People made similar pronouncements about gasoline a decade ago. $4/g gas is a distant memory.

Re: Solar Roof

#198

Post by maxerickson »

xbmcuser wrote: post #194
atourgates wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't really see the selling point, or value here. Tesla's calculator estimates $40,500 for a roof that generates half our power needs, and should provide $20,400 worth of energy over 30-years. Add in a PowerWall and federal tax credit, and I'm still losing $15,400 over 30-years. If I put that same $40,000 in an index fund that got the stock market's historical 7% average, and waited 30 years, I'd have $308,000. To…

In 30 years how many times will you have to redo your roof I think one of Tesla solar roofs points was that many houses in the US have to reshingle. Although I still don't think it might be worth it for you.

Shingle warranties are often 20-30 years.

Re: Solar Roof

#199

Post by pfarnsworth »

I am currently waiting to have my roof redone in the next couple of weeks It's going to cost $20k. I went through the calculator and it said that my roof would be about $30k after rebates, with no battery. That, to be honest, is something I wish I had known before I signed the contract to get my roof done. I don't, however, use much electricity. I use about $70/month max for my entire house, so I would literally have to convert everything over to electricity in order for this to be more worthwhile. But at this point, there's no incentive for me to ever get the solar roof unfortunately, having JUST dumped $20k into my shingle roof.

Re: Solar Roof

#200

Post by vacri »

j2bax wrote: post #151
dbecker wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The $80k roof is especially scary if you live in an area with any type of natural disaster risk. The area I live in just had a huge hail storm. Most roofs in our neighborhood will require repairs. That's a bummer with asphalt shingles, but it would be a lot worse with an $80k roof. Most people won't think about those risks, but over the time period you need to consider for a roof, it's a big risk in most places.

Tesla claims their shingles are a lot more resilient than standard roofing material...

They say the glass is warrantied for the lifetime of the house, but it will be interesting to see what exclusions are in that warranty.
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