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Solar Roof

tesla.com

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Re: Solar Roof

#131

Post by timdellinger »

Matt3o12_ wrote: post #63

Does anyone understand how the warranty works? From their solar panel page[0], it says that there is a 30 year warranty for Power and Weatherization and a lifetime warranty. So, what does the lifetime cover? The only thing that can go wrong is that either the power module fails or the tile is damaged due to weather, which is both covered by the 30 year warranty. Nevertheless, a 30 year warranty is still pretty impres…

A 30 year power warranty is mighty brave seeing as how they've got essentially 0 years of data to base their projections on.

Re: Solar Roof

#132

Post by MrQuincle »

pedrocr wrote: post #44
atourgates wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't really see the selling point, or value here. Tesla's calculator estimates $40,500 for a roof that generates half our power needs, and should provide $20,400 worth of energy over 30-years. Add in a PowerWall and federal tax credit, and I'm still losing $15,400 over 30-years. If I put that same $40,000 in an index fund that got the stock market's historical 7% average, and waited 30 years, I'd have $308,000. To…

>If I put that same $40,000 in an index fund that got the stock market's historical 7% average, and waited 30 years, I'd have $308,000. Are you doing the math all in present dollars? Because the return is 7% after inflation but >10% before. So you'd have >500.000 in 2047 dollars. In this case it's important to do that adjustment because you're doing an investment upfront for payoffs over 30 years so the value of mone…

The case can be made even stronger if the consumer's efficiency gap is taken into account.

For example from "Market failures and barriers as a basis for clean energy policies by Marilyn A. Brown" we read:

"Meier and Whittier (1983) studied a case in which consumers were given a choice in stores throughout the United States of two refrigerators that were identical in all respects except two: energy efficiency and price. The energy-efficient model (which saved 410 kilowatt hours per year, more than 25% of energy usage) cost $60 more than the standard model. The energy-efficient model was highly cost-effective in almost all locations of the country. In most regions, it provided an annual return on investment of about 50%. In spite of these favorable economics, which were easily observed by the purchaser, more than half of all purchasers chose the inefficient model. The higher purchase price of the efficient model was presumably the principal barrier to its purchase."

An annual ROI of 50% is left on the table because people have to pay something upfront for benefits later!

Tesla's pricing strategy here is quite blunt. They hope people don't care about the costs, only the looks and the sustainability.

Disclaimer: I don't know how sustainable the manufacturing process of this solution is.

Re: Solar Roof

#133

Post by palakchokshi »

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #106
palakchokshi wrote: post #47

2 self driving Teslas in the garage (making money when not used) $150,000 1 power wall battery pack $7,000 1 Solar Roof $80,000 Subtract $15,000 in Federal tax credits for both cars $5,000 in California tax credits for both cars 30% of 80,000 = $24,000 Solar Investment tax credit $237,000 - $44,000 Grand Total $193,000 Calculate savings $240 per month in gas $100-$300 per month in electricity $1000 - $2000 earned by…

I don't understand "income from cars" - do you mean as autonomous taxis? Pretty sure you need to then take into account increased insurance, maintenance costs as well as taxes on that income. Also if this autonomous taxi thing becomes a highly profitable gig (as you suggest), you'll quickly run into a big supply/demand problem. There's only a finite number of people who need mid-day cab rides.

Actually by the time full autopilot is acceptable insurance will actually go down since data will support that in full autopilot the probability of accident is lower than human driving.

Maintenance costs on an electric self driving car will actually be lower than a traditional car [1]

You are correct though that the income will have taxes applied to it.

[1] http://insideevs.com/ev-vs-ice-maintenance-the-first-100000-...

Re: Solar Roof

#134

Post by greglindahl »

vkou wrote: post #108
marcosdumay wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's because local photovoltaics can save a lot of infrastructure and can require nearly no labor. You don't buy cold air piped from across the city, you make it locally. Why?

> It's because local photovoltaics can save a lot of infrastructure and can require nearly no labor. No, they don't. You still need almost the entire national power grid to supply your home with night-time electricity... That infrastructure won't be going anywhere. An even worse outcome will be every home having local power storage infrastructure. Tens, or hundreds of thousands of dollars for a power wall, or a compr…

In many places in the country, night-time usage is a lot less than daytime usage.

Re: Solar Roof

#135

Post by jrnichols »

timtadh wrote: post #19
blakesterz wrote: post #2

Yikes. I just signed a contract for a new roof here last month, it's going to cost about $12k. Just did the estimate for the Tesla Solar roof... $80,300, so $87k if I want the battery too. I can barely afford the $12 right now, the $80 is just so far over it's not even close, even with how much I save over the years in electricity. That being said, I love these things, so hoping it gets cheaper in the coming years.

Where I live $80k is a significant portion of the cost of most houses. The price will be a significant barrier to entry for houses outside of hot real estate markets.

I dunno, I'm in the Dallas/Ft Worth area, and we have abundant sunshine and I think the price is still going to be a barrier.

But like others have said... there are plenty with a lot more money than I have which will jump at this. I'm ok with that. The more wealthy folks that install these and take their load off the grid, the better.

Re: Solar Roof

#136

Post by scotch_drinker »

Arcsech wrote: post #119

I'm curious about the durability - I live Colorado Springs, which is typically very sunny (good for solar), but can get pretty bad hailstorms. This means that the average roof lifetime here is much shorter than elsewhere. If the Tesla's roof tiles are actually significantly more durable than asphalt, it could be more cost-effective here than elsewhere.

On the solar calculator page, they say they have the highest possible hail rating.

Re: Solar Roof

#137

Post by semi-extrinsic »

stupidhn wrote: post #91
KerryJones wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of these things require high production amounts which allow refinement and bulk orders. The first Tesla Roadster's ended up being around $110K. They're now doing Model 3's for $35K. I expect the same with the roofs -- they will drop price drastically, but they need to get them out there first.

> They're now doing Model 3's for $35K. What do you mean it isn't the point? They haven't even started production on the Model 3, let alone delivered one for $35k, which is very unlikely to happen. So it's yet to be seen what they'll deliver for 35k. And by the way, the second model(turned out to be the X) was also supposed to be cheaper than the first (Model S). It wasn't. Musk is already announcing the 4th model wi…

Meanwhile you can buy a Chevy Bolt today with 238 mile range, MSRP $37k before tax credits, ~$30k after.

The more upscale BMW i3 with 195 mile range can also be bought today, at ~$35k after tax credits.

If GM can build enough Bolts to keep up with demand (the waiting list here in Europe is apparently 12 months now), and with the other big players trying to catch up (Hyundai, Nissan, Ford all expected to have 200+ mile range models in 2018), Tesla has to hurry up and deliver on their target price, delivery dates and volume.

Re: Solar Roof

#138

Post by 11thEarlOfMar »

In modeling whether this makes sense, I looked at my annual electricity bill, which comes in at about $1,800/year. That's not enough savings opportunity to justify a ~$70,000 roof+batteries.

However, when I add 2 electric cars, the savings nearly triple [0]. Instead of buying gasoline, I'll be paying for electricity.

At $5,400/year, spending $70,000 starts to make some sense.

On the other hand, if I put up ugly panels and still use the Tesla batteries, aren't I going to save a lot more?

[0] 24,000 miles/year, 225 miles @ $10 per charge, vs. 25 mpg @$3/gal

EDIT: Corrected KWh charge... $10 is cost for one charge.

Re: Solar Roof

#139

Post by netinstructions »

Arcsech wrote: post #119

I'm curious about the durability - I live Colorado Springs, which is typically very sunny (good for solar), but can get pretty bad hailstorms. This means that the average roof lifetime here is much shorter than elsewhere. If the Tesla's roof tiles are actually significantly more durable than asphalt, it could be more cost-effective here than elsewhere.

This is something they're specifically trying to address. Elon posted some high speed footage of a "hail gun" shooting the Tesla tiles.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BT7Gxsag27j/?taken-by=elonmusk&h...

Sounds like a fun job to build and operate a "hail gun"

Re: Solar Roof

#140

Post by esterly »

Arcsech wrote: post #119

I'm curious about the durability - I live Colorado Springs, which is typically very sunny (good for solar), but can get pretty bad hailstorms. This means that the average roof lifetime here is much shorter than elsewhere. If the Tesla's roof tiles are actually significantly more durable than asphalt, it could be more cost-effective here than elsewhere.

Tesla posted this hail test video https://twitter.com/TeslaMotors/status/862394764460605440
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