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Zillow faces lawsuit over ‘Zestimate’ tool that calculates a house’s worth

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Re: Zillow faces lawsuit over ‘Zestimate’ tool that calculates a house’s worth

#111

Realtors have always hated the Zestimate with a passion [0]. When they publicly called out Zillow CEO for selling his own home for 40% less than the Zestimate on it, Zillow magically released a superior algorithm [2]. [0] Inaccurate Zillow 'Zestimates' a source of conflict over home prices | Feb 8, 2015 | http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-harney-2015... [1] Zillow CEO sold his home for 40% less than Ze…

[1] reminds of an interview with the founder of Ashley Madison.

He was going on and on about how western cultures were so regressive and prude about adultery and sex in general. The interviewer then asked him if he had ever used his own service. This elicited an uncomfortable non-answer that basically boiled down to "No".

Re: Zillow faces lawsuit over ‘Zestimate’ tool that calculates a house’s worth

#112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it's not correct, then the sale price will reflect that and Zillow's reputation will take a hit. Don't understand why the government needs to get involved in what someone says something is worth, it's their opinion and they're entitled to it. Edit: It would be funny if Zillow also started putting up alerts about problems with government finances which will likely impact future taxes, such as in Illinois.

It's still a price anchor. If an engineer at Zillow manipulated the Zestimate on a home they were trying to buy or sell, would they succeed in driving the price of the home in the desired direction? I think so. Clearly real estate agents have the same feeling or they wouldn't be suing.

Mostly because they want to do the manipulating of estimates themselves.

Re: Zillow faces lawsuit over ‘Zestimate’ tool that calculates a house’s worth

#113
post #38
post #16

You would think real estate would prove to be one of the few real life fields where machine learning would be able to predict the prices pretty accurately. You have: 1. List price 2. "Favorites" on the MLS. 3. Square footage 4. Bedrooms 5. Bathrooms 6. Sold price for nearby properties 7. Sold price for nearby properties relative to their list price And the list goes on... Is it that difficult to predict? Literally th…

There's plenty of money in it. Imagine if you could price the house correctly out of the gate, reducing the amount of time the home stays on the market. It is indeed a hard problem to solve using ML. You'd need a few other things: 8. Floor count 9. Size and location of the bedrooms, bathrooms, kitchen 10. In-unit laundry (mostly for condos) 11. Proximity to neighbors 12. Existing tree coverage and other landscaping 1…

In the Bay Area at least, you really cannot discount the Feng Shui attributes of a home [1] and I don't think there is any MLS type of database that takes this into account.

[1] http://blog.pacificunion.com/proper-home-design-crucial-chin...

Re: Zillow faces lawsuit over ‘Zestimate’ tool that calculates a house’s worth

#114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this should be. it's a market with few sales at high costs heavily interwinded with the mortgage market. having a de facto monopoly on what's considered a fair value, rightly or wrongly, opens up bank people and real estate agents to all kind of manipulation. by manipulating their equation they can help lowball the sales price of an entire area, they can both profit directly out of this, indirectly through stock mani…

But how does getting an appraisal license protect bank people and real estate agents? Isn't an appraiser subject to the same moral shortcomings as any regular person? And only allowing state licensed appraisers to give value estimates does exactly what you are trying to avoid. It creates a state owned monopoly on housing estimates. Zillow would lose credibility and it would hurt the core of their business if it was f…

It's easy to defraud one of the parties in a real estate transaction (usually the bank; they have the money) if the other parties, including the appraiser, collude. The appraiser is supposed to be independent, and the license is a stamp of professional ethics.

If a licensed appraiser acts fraudulently, you have grounds to sue their hinders off.

Re: Zillow faces lawsuit over ‘Zestimate’ tool that calculates a house’s worth

#115
post #16

You would think real estate would prove to be one of the few real life fields where machine learning would be able to predict the prices pretty accurately. You have: 1. List price 2. "Favorites" on the MLS. 3. Square footage 4. Bedrooms 5. Bathrooms 6. Sold price for nearby properties 7. Sold price for nearby properties relative to their list price And the list goes on... Is it that difficult to predict? Literally th…

How is the machine learning going to actually inspect the house?

With this [1] or this [2]

[1] https://www.google.com/streetview/trekker/

[2] https://matterport.com/

Re: Zillow faces lawsuit over ‘Zestimate’ tool that calculates a house’s worth

#116
post #16

You would think real estate would prove to be one of the few real life fields where machine learning would be able to predict the prices pretty accurately. You have: 1. List price 2. "Favorites" on the MLS. 3. Square footage 4. Bedrooms 5. Bathrooms 6. Sold price for nearby properties 7. Sold price for nearby properties relative to their list price And the list goes on... Is it that difficult to predict? Literally th…

Having been through a tax reassessment in our home town, I can say it is not that easy. We found there are many fine-grained location dependencies, and not that many sales, with the latter issue complicated by the after-effects of the 2008 debacle.

Re: Zillow faces lawsuit over ‘Zestimate’ tool that calculates a house’s worth

#117
post #16

You would think real estate would prove to be one of the few real life fields where machine learning would be able to predict the prices pretty accurately. You have: 1. List price 2. "Favorites" on the MLS. 3. Square footage 4. Bedrooms 5. Bathrooms 6. Sold price for nearby properties 7. Sold price for nearby properties relative to their list price And the list goes on... Is it that difficult to predict? Literally th…

Take a look at an actual appraisal document[0] for clues into what impacts a home's market value. The key is in selecting the 'Comps', homes that have sold recently and which are materially comparable to the home under appraisal.

Other random attributes that adjust the appraisal:

- Does the home have a view? Of what?

- What is the quality of construction?

- Garage or Carport?

- Pool?

- basement?

There are many variables, least of which is how active the market is today.

[0] http://sacramentoappraisalblog.com/tag/reading-the-appraisal...

Re: Zillow faces lawsuit over ‘Zestimate’ tool that calculates a house’s worth

#118
post #16

You would think real estate would prove to be one of the few real life fields where machine learning would be able to predict the prices pretty accurately. You have: 1. List price 2. "Favorites" on the MLS. 3. Square footage 4. Bedrooms 5. Bathrooms 6. Sold price for nearby properties 7. Sold price for nearby properties relative to their list price And the list goes on... Is it that difficult to predict? Literally th…

If you want to try it, there are a few data sets kicking around, including a) https://www.kaggle.com/c/house-prices-advanced-regression-te... b) http://www.bis.org/statistics/pp_detailed.htm c) https://archive.ics.uci.edu/ml/datasets/housing If you had a really great model, you might be able to make some money with it--find underpriced (per the model) houses, buy them, and then try to sell them at the model's price.

The house would have to be mispriced by more than the transaction costs (5-10%).

Re: Zillow faces lawsuit over ‘Zestimate’ tool that calculates a house’s worth

#120
post #48

Interesting. I wonder what would her argument be if Zillow simply reported the City/County tax assessors estimates which are usually even lower than Zillow's.

>I wonder what would her argument be if Zillow simply reported the City/County tax assessors estimates which are usually even lower than Zillow's. County assessors for tax purposes are explicitly not trying to determine market price. Zillow should ignore it.

I'm not sure what you mean.

In Illinois (the state from the article) the assessor is calculating the market value:

Most real property in Illinois must be assessed based on its value on the open market, or its “market value.” This value is the amount at which a property would sell in a competitive and open market... [1]

[1]http://tax.illinois.gov/Publications/LocalGovernment/PTAX100...

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