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Solar Roof

tesla.com

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Re: Solar Roof

#91

Post by stupidhn »

KerryJones wrote: post #20
SirLJ wrote: post #8

Tesla acquired SolarCity in November in a deal worth $2.1 billion. At the event, Musk said Tesla's roof would price competitively with normal roofs and could even cost less. "It's looking quite promising that a solar roof will actually cost less than a normal roof before you even take the value of electricity into account," Musk said at the event. "So the basic proposition would be: Would you like a roof that looks b…

Most of these things require high production amounts which allow refinement and bulk orders. The first Tesla Roadster's ended up being around $110K. They're now doing Model 3's for $35K. I expect the same with the roofs -- they will drop price drastically, but they need to get them out there first.

>They're now doing Model 3's for $35K.

What do you mean it isn't the point? They haven't even started production on the Model 3, let alone delivered one for $35k, which is very unlikely to happen. So it's yet to be seen what they'll deliver for 35k. And by the way, the second model(turned out to be the X) was also supposed to be cheaper than the first (Model S). It wasn't. Musk is already announcing the 4th model will be cheaper than the 3.

Re: Solar Roof

#92

Post by quizme2000 »

I think Elon got ripped off on his last shingle roof. The bar chart is nice but off by at least 150%. I've had many roofing subcontractors as clients past and present in Northern California. Based on an average of 870 roofs in 2016 for Single Family Residential homes in the bay area, Asphalt shingle roofs are $3.12 per square foot for materials and labor. The highest was $5.75 psf and the lowest $2.35 psf. Note that the SF bay area is considered one of the most expensive in roofing market. Also note that Solar City has a poor reputation in the industry for hard selling larger than needed residential solar systems.

Re: Solar Roof

#93

Post by stupidhn »

palakchokshi wrote: post #47

2 self driving Teslas in the garage (making money when not used) $150,000 1 power wall battery pack $7,000 1 Solar Roof $80,000 Subtract $15,000 in Federal tax credits for both cars $5,000 in California tax credits for both cars 30% of 80,000 = $24,000 Solar Investment tax credit $237,000 - $44,000 Grand Total $193,000 Calculate savings $240 per month in gas $100-$300 per month in electricity $1000 - $2000 earned by…

You're not considering the future value of the dollars you're paying up front? What about subsidies disappearing?

And making $2000 a month off the cars is delusional. Why would they even bother to sell you the car if they could make that money monthly for 10 years?

Re: Solar Roof

#94

Post by rhino369 »

ctdonath wrote: post #42

People keep overlooking the objective value of not relying on "grid" power sources. Power goes off, your system keeps going. Gasoline supply stops (I've seen that a few times), you can just power your car at home. Your system fails, grid is likely still up to cover. Supply-and-demand takes a sharp turn when supply is actually limited and can/does run out . At that point, having pre-paid for your own uninterrupted off…

I think people overvalue the value of being off the grid.

The average person isn't doing anything that critical at home, so they can just deal with it. Diesel generators work for people with critical use cases.

Katrina is the only time in my lifetime where a major city / region was without power and without gas deliveries for a long time.

Re: Solar Roof

#95

Post by eridius »

flareback wrote: post #82
palakchokshi wrote: post #47

2 self driving Teslas in the garage (making money when not used) $150,000 1 power wall battery pack $7,000 1 Solar Roof $80,000 Subtract $15,000 in Federal tax credits for both cars $5,000 in California tax credits for both cars 30% of 80,000 = $24,000 Solar Investment tax credit $237,000 - $44,000 Grand Total $193,000 Calculate savings $240 per month in gas $100-$300 per month in electricity $1000 - $2000 earned by…

How do the cars make money when in the garage?

Tesla will be operating a car sharing network comprised of self-driving cars. From the master plan (https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux):

> You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone app and have it generate income for you while you're at work or on vacation, significantly offsetting and at times potentially exceeding the monthly loan or lease cost. This dramatically lowers the true cost of ownership to the point where almost anyone could own a Tesla. Since most cars are only in use by their owner for 5% to 10% of the day, the fundamental economic utility of a true self-driving car is likely to be several times that of a car which is not.

Re: Solar Roof

#96

Post by vkou »

Fezzik wrote: post #43
aasarava wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You got a $12K quote for tile? How long is the warranty? Remember that the 80K quote includes solar, so you'd have to add a standard solar install of the same KW capacity to your initial quote to really compare apples to apples. You'll probably still pay a premium to go with Tesla, but the no-profile solar integration and lifetime warranty really look attractive. Some people are probably willing to pay for it, simila…

It's not really a lifetime warranty though. If you click through to the Tesla purchasing page, there is (only) a 30 years Power Warranty and Weatherization Warranty... which in my mind renders calling it a lifetime warranty sort of silly, as the purpose of the shingles (power generation) is not covered by the lifetime portion of the warranty. 30 years still seems like a significant warranty for a product like this th…

The odds that Tesla will be around and willing to honor their warranty 25 years from now are also nowhere near 100%. Also, if you read the fine print, you will notice that the warranty will not cover the most frequent cause of roof problems - leaks in the seams.

The same can be said for your local fly-by-night roofer, but it sounds like you can buy two roofs for the price of a SolarRoof.

Also, another thing to be concerned about is whether or not you're going to be stuck in the middle of a pass-the-blame around football match between Tesla, and their subcontractors. (I guarantee you that the people installing your roof will not be Tesla employees.) In roofs, installation mistakes can cost you dearly - they are the primary cause of roof problems.

Re: Solar Roof

#97

Post by gervase »

brianbreslin wrote: post #67

Any idea on whether or not this would improve your home's resale value? Also it won't let you go a full 100% (max 70%) of your roof coverage. Do they fill the rest with regular tiles? The average person would have to finance this. So what's the true cost?

In many (most?) areas, solar systems are considered "overimprovements" from the perspective of appraisals.

This generally means that any increase in home value (increasing appeal to the buyer directly) won't translate to a higher loan amount from the bank (which will only loan out the on-paper valuation), restricting the ability of the buyer to actually pay the higher price they would otherwise be willing to pay.

This could change as solar systems proliferate, making them almost a "standard" feature of most houses. It also wouldn't affect sales to cash-paying investors, which in some markets are the main buyers, since they don't need to qualify for loans anyway (and therefore can ignore appraisals).

Either way, I wouldn't bet on it increasing the home's value more than ~40% of the cost, if that.

Re: Solar Roof

#98

Post by fictioncircle »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #18
erroneousfunk wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I balked at first, but it looks like mine (~1400 sqft 2 story house), would cost $30k, and there's a lifetime warranty on the roof. I might consider it in the long term future, but would definitely want to give it a few years and see how things pan out first. This is one of those things that I wouldn't want to be an early adopter for.

Did you take into account the 30% federal tax credit on that 30k? EDIT: That's sort of the kicker. A regular roof does not get a 30% federal tax credit (plus possible state incentives), nor does it produce power for 30+ years, nor does it have a lifetime warranty. If you can obtain low cost financing, you almost always come out ahead.

> EDIT: That's sort of the kicker. A regular roof does not get a 30% federal tax credit (plus possible state incentives), nor does it produce power for 30+ years, nor does it have a lifetime warranty. If you can obtain low cost financing, you almost always come out ahead.

Maximizing retirement savings is still likely more cost effective than this roof for most people and I doubt many people in the US are putting away $24k/year.

The only way I'd see this is as viable is below inflation interest and people showing they can sell the houses for the full value of the Tesla roof.

Re: Solar Roof

#99

Post by acchow »

chii wrote: post #51
atourgates wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't really see the selling point, or value here. Tesla's calculator estimates $40,500 for a roof that generates half our power needs, and should provide $20,400 worth of energy over 30-years. Add in a PowerWall and federal tax credit, and I'm still losing $15,400 over 30-years. If I put that same $40,000 in an index fund that got the stock market's historical 7% average, and waited 30 years, I'd have $308,000. To…

> put that same $40,000 in an index fund that got the stock market's historical 7% average, and waited 30 years, I'd have $308,000. stock market isn't a very safe investment (that is, risk is much higher than putting in a bank), you can't make a comparison against buying some equipment, which is zero risk. A closer comparison is putting the $40,000 in a bank that guarentees interest (or treasury bonds, which is also…

> you can't make a comparison against buying some equipment, which is zero risk.

Equipment isn't zero risk. It could fail and need replacement, or need dramatic repairs. Or the price of electricity could drop dramatically and your investment won't be saving you as much in electricity bills...

Re: Solar Roof

#100

Post by canterburry »

Yeah, I feel the coverage of this has been very deceptive. We just got a quote for our roof in SF (small house) and it was ~$20K with an upgraded architectural tile, new spouts and gutters.

Tesla would charge me $67K for the roof alone based on roof size and our energy use.

1. "Unlimited warranty" doesn't actually mean unlimited warranty when your roof starts leaking...just that the tile won't break.

2. Why the heck should I pre-pay Tesla for unrealized savings to my future energy use??

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