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Solar Roof

tesla.com

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Re: Solar Roof

#31

Post by atourgates »

blakesterz wrote: post #2

Yikes. I just signed a contract for a new roof here last month, it's going to cost about $12k. Just did the estimate for the Tesla Solar roof... $80,300, so $87k if I want the battery too. I can barely afford the $12 right now, the $80 is just so far over it's not even close, even with how much I save over the years in electricity. That being said, I love these things, so hoping it gets cheaper in the coming years.

I don't really see the selling point, or value here.

Tesla's calculator estimates $40,500 for a roof that generates half our power needs, and should provide $20,400 worth of energy over 30-years.

Add in a PowerWall and federal tax credit, and I'm still losing $15,400 over 30-years.

If I put that same $40,000 in an index fund that got the stock market's historical 7% average, and waited 30 years, I'd have $308,000.

To put it in another perspective, the last estimates I got for a solar system that covered 100% of our average power needs came in at $32,000 installed, before the same $11K tax credit that Tesla includes in their calculations.

So, I could pay under $20,000 for a "traditional" solar system that covered 100% of our energy bills, or $40,000 for a Tesla solar roof that covered 50% of our energy bills.

That's quite literally half the value, at twice the price.

If I put in a traditional solar system tomorrow, it would pay for itself in year 9. If I put in a Tesla solar roof tomorrow, I'd still be out $15K at year 30.

Re: Solar Roof

#32

Post by mrtron »

Not sure why all the negative energy.

They are going after the portion of the market that would replace their roof with a high end material, and are interested in solar.

If you are a home owner in this situation, you could consider investing into your home. The roof will pay dividends over the next 30 years, and is attractive and durable.

I think it will do extremely well. Perhaps the best opportunity is in new construction. Imagine having 50k more baked into your mortgage, but having your roof lower your ongoing energy costs! Great potential in that market, could also optimize the roof designs for power generation.

Re: Solar Roof

#33

Post by Analemma_ »

SirLJ wrote: post #8

Tesla acquired SolarCity in November in a deal worth $2.1 billion. At the event, Musk said Tesla's roof would price competitively with normal roofs and could even cost less. "It's looking quite promising that a solar roof will actually cost less than a normal roof before you even take the value of electricity into account," Musk said at the event. "So the basic proposition would be: Would you like a roof that looks b…

> At the event, Musk said Tesla's roof would price competitively with normal roofs and could even cost less.

I think we may need to start applying a "multiplier" to any costs or delivery dates that Elon mentions. I love him to death but he does have quite a history of underestimating these things.

Re: Solar Roof

#34

Post by jorblumesea »

While it's far better than other competitors, my asphalt roof was 7k, 30 year warranty rated to 120mph winds. Still a long way to go on the pricing part.

Super happy this is even a thing, 10 years ago this would have seemed like science fiction.

Re: Solar Roof

#35

Post by fpgaminer »

I'm so absolutely excited for solar power. Tesla's Solar Roof, their PowerWall batteries, electric cars. It's all just painting such a bright future. Certainly Tesla has no monopoly on it, but they've made it sexy and are pushing the bleeding edge forward. Props to them.

We recently signed a contract to do an installation on our house (with a local contractor, not SolarCity). It can't happen soon enough! We'll have enough panels and batteries to be 100% off-grid throughout the entire year, plus get a good chunk of change back from the Net Metering every year. Pay off is only 8 years!

That installation is enough to cover our normal electric usage. Longer term I want to replace our gas appliances with electric and replace the car with a Tesla. Then we can double our solar installation to keep pace and BAM we will be 100% clean energy and off-grid. All while saving a bucket of money.

The thought of running off grid in the middle of a Southern California suburb? People might think me crazy, but guess what? At least we're doing our small part to save the planet, and saving money doing it. So who's the crazy one?

Re: Solar Roof

#36

Post by maxerickson »

mholt wrote: post #30
maxerickson wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They haven't delivered a Model 3 yet.

That's not the point. Sales from their previous, more expensive models allowed them to ramp up production capacity for the Model 3.

Sure it's the point. If they don't actually hit a $35,000 price then it is a bit much to credit them for bringing the price down to $35,000.

Re: Solar Roof

#38

Post by heisenbit »

aasarava wrote: post #9
blakesterz wrote: post #2

Yikes. I just signed a contract for a new roof here last month, it's going to cost about $12k. Just did the estimate for the Tesla Solar roof... $80,300, so $87k if I want the battery too. I can barely afford the $12 right now, the $80 is just so far over it's not even close, even with how much I save over the years in electricity. That being said, I love these things, so hoping it gets cheaper in the coming years.

You got a $12K quote for tile? How long is the warranty? Remember that the 80K quote includes solar, so you'd have to add a standard solar install of the same KW capacity to your initial quote to really compare apples to apples. You'll probably still pay a premium to go with Tesla, but the no-profile solar integration and lifetime warranty really look attractive. Some people are probably willing to pay for it, simila…

Considering how long Tesla has been in existence and how financially leveraged Tesla is I would take discount warranty value (lifetime of house or infinity whatever comes first).

Can't project finances much more than 10 years max. At the moment cost of capital is low but that may well change in that time-frame. Things have to make sense in a decade or so also considering that this new technology that is obsoleted by incremental innovation.

Re: Solar Roof

#39

Post by amelius »

Why don't banks (or even Tesla for that matter) finance such roofs upfront? It seems they can make money out of this.

Re: Solar Roof

#40

Post by tzs »

atourgates wrote: post #31
blakesterz wrote: post #2

Yikes. I just signed a contract for a new roof here last month, it's going to cost about $12k. Just did the estimate for the Tesla Solar roof... $80,300, so $87k if I want the battery too. I can barely afford the $12 right now, the $80 is just so far over it's not even close, even with how much I save over the years in electricity. That being said, I love these things, so hoping it gets cheaper in the coming years.

I don't really see the selling point, or value here. Tesla's calculator estimates $40,500 for a roof that generates half our power needs, and should provide $20,400 worth of energy over 30-years. Add in a PowerWall and federal tax credit, and I'm still losing $15,400 over 30-years. If I put that same $40,000 in an index fund that got the stock market's historical 7% average, and waited 30 years, I'd have $308,000. To…

> Tesla's calculator estimates $40,500 for a roof that generates half our power needs, and should provide $20,400 worth of energy over 30-years.

This depends quite strongly on where you are. Your numbers are very close to the ones I get if I use my correct address, which is in the Puget Sound area of Washington State.

If I keep everything the same except the address, changing that to one in Merced, California, then it says I'd get $75000 worth of energy over 30 years.

PS: it looks like they try to use the address for more than just finding the location in order to estimate how much sun is available. I tried an address that I had lived at in Pasadena, California, and it did not ask me for the house size and number of floors. Instead, it did the calculation using about 6000 sq ft, which is about the size of the apartment building that is at that address. For my Seattle-area and Merced addresses, it did ask me for the house information.

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