Life inside the North Korean Bubble (with video)

I get the feeling that South Koreans are a lot less keen to be unified than West Germans were before the cold war ended, probably justifiably so.

There was at least some exchange between West and East, nothing like the complete isolation of North Korea. East Germans could just turn on their TV and watch some West German television when they wanted to compare systems. (Areas the West German TV signals couldn’t reach were called “Valleys of the Clueless” :) East Germany was also one of the most “progressive” eastern bloc states, supposed to be a showcase for actually existing socialism. And, as far as tyrannies go, one of the milder ones, while Kim Jong-il is all the way up there with Hitler and Stalin.

Then there is time: East Germany survived for forty years, North Korea is in its seventh decade. It survived the last twenty years without a cold war keeping it alive (except the one between North and South Korea, I guess).

The German unification cost billions and caused many problems. By no means an easy process that’s now, twenty years after it started, by no means completely finished. So I kind of can understand South Koreans who are weary of the prospect of unification. Unification did work out ok. I don’t know whether that would have been the case had East Germany been a lot more like North Korea.

I was in South Korea last month and there's a few different attitudes. There's a general sense that there should be one Korea at some point or other, though people disagree on the particulars based on what they focus on when they think about it.

Some people think the opportunities for manufacturing and development in North Korea are going to be great and are excited to have more Korean companies do their manufacturing in NK instead of China going forwards.

Many of the younger people are excited about the idea of no longer needing two years of mandatory military service, which is currently required mostly because of the North Korean threat (the older generation was more patriotic towards military service, the younger generation seems to see it as a bit more of a burden).

Some people are afraid of the ripple effect on the economy, in fact a lot of the Koreans I asked were aware of the West Germany/East Germany example you mentioned.

The general sentiment seems to be about 50/50 - half in favor of unification the sooner the better, half in favor of having North Korea as a separate state but with much friendlier and greater cooperation between them, and with a better government in the North. The older people seem more in favor of a short term unification, the younger people seem more disposed towards having North Korea be a separate state until they're ready to join back up.

Everyone - everyone in South Korea hates Kim Jong-il, and most people seem kind of embarassed and blush when you mention him.

This is something that always puzzles me. How come it's accepted as a given that countries cannot seal their borders. The Soviet Bloc were pretty good at it

EDIT also the border between north and south korea is pretty tight

I agree, this is something Koreans (both North and South) will have to fight for themselves (only "fighting" metaphorically hopefully). Korea has a history of being oppressed by various other nations and the official ideology of North Korea ("Juche") is basically, amongst other things, saying "f*ck you" to the rest of the world. People are actually serious about it, it's not just some propaganda. Clearly, in a situation like this, foreign intervention is possibly not the best way forward.

Most every South Korean wants reunification at some point. But the truth of it is that the current generation doesn't really think about North Korea much. Those that do cite the the German experiment as an example of a very cautionary tale about reunification.

This of course despite the fact that many older generation Koreans would feel compelled to have some kind of punishment for the "communists" (in quotes because the word is abused in South Korea by the older generation to the point of being meaningless) and their various crimes against the South. Of course this would further complicate reunification.

I think beyond just hearing what South Koreans say, look at what they do. The Kaesong Industrial Area is cited in the South as a way to try and drag at least some portion of the North's populace into the 21st century. Because if reunification of any type did happen, the consensus is that they are virtually without any useful skill to the South. Ultimately, reunification means that the Northerners will have to become productive, job holding, members of society. All of the BS they spend time drilling on in school, like the great works of Kim Il Sung and Kim Jung Il and learning how to perform in mass games and create propaganda ballets about dam construction, are absolutely meaningless in a modern industrialized world. If the two Koreas reunified tomorrow, they would have to figure out what to do with 20 million unskilled laborers.

The bright side is that the pragmatists see this as a way of perpetuating the cheap labor pool requirements for an export driven economy. South Korea has started bringing in labor from places like Indonesia, Nepal, Vietnam, etc. because they can use these laborers on low waged manufacturing jobs. If 20 million North Koreans suddenly became available, it would greatly simplify things (in theory) for the manufacturing chaebols in the South. They'd simply bus in Northerners at $10-20/day to build TVs and Ships and Construction equipment and all the other odds and ends that South Korea needs to produce to stay wealthy. Kaesong is supposed to be laying the ground work for that eventual day.

I think likely, if the regime collapsed in the North, they'd move to keep the two countries in place, but with very close economic ties, (perhaps like the U.S. and Canada, with a lax border) for at least a couple generations and use the North as a cheap labor pool and industrial center very similar to how many countries use China. Once the standard of living increased in the North to the point that the South could reasonably absorb the North, and/or the Northerners were demanding wages too high to keep the export model afloat, they'd probably reunify.