The bet on maps is interesting. I'm of the personal opinion that in the long run only machine learning can solve autonomous driving, but both MobilEye and now this company both have invested heavily into maps. MobilEye makes sense, they have vested financial reasons that dictate what they do, so they can't turn their back on maps which they've been using for such a long time. On the other hand, starting a company in…
Another Group of Google Veterans Starts a Self-Driving Technology Company
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Re: Another Group of Google Veterans Starts a Self-Driving Technology Company
#12The bet on maps is interesting. I'm of the personal opinion that in the long run only machine learning can solve autonomous driving, but both MobilEye and now this company both have invested heavily into maps. MobilEye makes sense, they have vested financial reasons that dictate what they do, so they can't turn their back on maps which they've been using for such a long time. On the other hand, starting a company in…
Cruise (now part of GM) also relies heavily on maps, based on a talk I saw their lead CV guy make. It does make a good deal of sense - maps (at least street-maps) are mostly static and they make the problem way easier, so why not use them. In fact, most people these days are implicitly using maps - how often do people drive to new places without GPS navigation? Of course, vision and likely ML are still a necessary pa…
I don't doubt that 2d maps would be needed like how humans drive with a GPS.
Re: Another Group of Google Veterans Starts a Self-Driving Technology Company
#13When companies pay each engineer X and earn 10 times X on each engineer, this is inevitable. Near as I can tell, this is a strategy that is helping engineers retain more of the value they are creating. If the difference was more subtle such as 2 to 3 times X, then the incentive to go through this much trouble to retain much of the value you create is much smaller.
I would summarize this effect as BigCorp HR being much more disciplined/constrained on individual compensation than the M&A department. Naturally, well-positioned and clever employees will capitalize on this.
Re: Another Group of Google Veterans Starts a Self-Driving Technology Company
#14The bet on maps is interesting. I'm of the personal opinion that in the long run only machine learning can solve autonomous driving, but both MobilEye and now this company both have invested heavily into maps. MobilEye makes sense, they have vested financial reasons that dictate what they do, so they can't turn their back on maps which they've been using for such a long time. On the other hand, starting a company in…
Cruise (now part of GM) also relies heavily on maps, based on a talk I saw their lead CV guy make. It does make a good deal of sense - maps (at least street-maps) are mostly static and they make the problem way easier, so why not use them. In fact, most people these days are implicitly using maps - how often do people drive to new places without GPS navigation? Of course, vision and likely ML are still a necessary pa…
I'd argue also they're using maps in an even more fundamental way - most driving occurs in places where the driver has already been, and relying on a wetware-stored map is a critical part of safe and effective driving.
Local knowledge - traffic patterns, weird traffic signal setups, difficult lane changes, etc, is pretty critical to driving well.
Re: Another Group of Google Veterans Starts a Self-Driving Technology Company
#15The bet on maps is interesting. I'm of the personal opinion that in the long run only machine learning can solve autonomous driving, but both MobilEye and now this company both have invested heavily into maps. MobilEye makes sense, they have vested financial reasons that dictate what they do, so they can't turn their back on maps which they've been using for such a long time. On the other hand, starting a company in…
Re: Another Group of Google Veterans Starts a Self-Driving Technology Company
#16Re: Another Group of Google Veterans Starts a Self-Driving Technology Company
#17Has to be fascinating AND deflating if one of your data points was "holy shit we can make $700m in 6 months if we get a team + MVP out the door!".
Re: Another Group of Google Veterans Starts a Self-Driving Technology Company
#18Earlier quoted context omitted.
Cruise (now part of GM) also relies heavily on maps, based on a talk I saw their lead CV guy make. It does make a good deal of sense - maps (at least street-maps) are mostly static and they make the problem way easier, so why not use them. In fact, most people these days are implicitly using maps - how often do people drive to new places without GPS navigation? Of course, vision and likely ML are still a necessary pa…
> "In fact, most people these days are implicitly using maps - how often do people drive to new places without GPS navigation?" I'd argue also they're using maps in an even more fundamental way - most driving occurs in places where the driver has already been, and relying on a wetware-stored map is a critical part of safe and effective driving. Local knowledge - traffic patterns, weird traffic signal setups, difficul…
Since I don't use Waze (horrible experience), Google Map won't tell me there's a camera ahead, or police is ahead.
Re: Another Group of Google Veterans Starts a Self-Driving Technology Company
#19Re: Another Group of Google Veterans Starts a Self-Driving Technology Company
#20Earlier quoted context omitted.
> "In fact, most people these days are implicitly using maps - how often do people drive to new places without GPS navigation?" I'd argue also they're using maps in an even more fundamental way - most driving occurs in places where the driver has already been, and relying on a wetware-stored map is a critical part of safe and effective driving. Local knowledge - traffic patterns, weird traffic signal setups, difficul…
If I have been to the destination multiple of times, I usually don't open map, I leave my phone off, or I let Pokemon Go running. But sometimes I do use map to seek for alternate faster route if I am in a hurry even if I am familiar with some alternate routes just to be sure. Since I don't use Waze (horrible experience), Google Map won't tell me there's a camera ahead, or police is ahead.
The expectation that self-driving can be perfected without any kind of pre-mapping and the system can behave at high reliably in-situ seems unreasonable. Even humans can't do that.