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Another Group of Google Veterans Starts a Self-Driving Technology Company

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Re: Another Group of Google Veterans Starts a Self-Driving Technology Company

#11

The bet on maps is interesting. I'm of the personal opinion that in the long run only machine learning can solve autonomous driving, but both MobilEye and now this company both have invested heavily into maps. MobilEye makes sense, they have vested financial reasons that dictate what they do, so they can't turn their back on maps which they've been using for such a long time. On the other hand, starting a company in…

Cruise (now part of GM) also relies heavily on maps, based on a talk I saw their lead CV guy make. It does make a good deal of sense - maps (at least street-maps) are mostly static and they make the problem way easier, so why not use them. In fact, most people these days are implicitly using maps - how often do people drive to new places without GPS navigation? Of course, vision and likely ML are still a necessary part of the equation.

Re: Another Group of Google Veterans Starts a Self-Driving Technology Company

#12
post #11

The bet on maps is interesting. I'm of the personal opinion that in the long run only machine learning can solve autonomous driving, but both MobilEye and now this company both have invested heavily into maps. MobilEye makes sense, they have vested financial reasons that dictate what they do, so they can't turn their back on maps which they've been using for such a long time. On the other hand, starting a company in…

Cruise (now part of GM) also relies heavily on maps, based on a talk I saw their lead CV guy make. It does make a good deal of sense - maps (at least street-maps) are mostly static and they make the problem way easier, so why not use them. In fact, most people these days are implicitly using maps - how often do people drive to new places without GPS navigation? Of course, vision and likely ML are still a necessary pa…

By maps I mean high resolution 3D maps with lidar and stuff as this startup seems to be doing.

I don't doubt that 2d maps would be needed like how humans drive with a GPS.

Re: Another Group of Google Veterans Starts a Self-Driving Technology Company

#13

When companies pay each engineer X and earn 10 times X on each engineer, this is inevitable. Near as I can tell, this is a strategy that is helping engineers retain more of the value they are creating. If the difference was more subtle such as 2 to 3 times X, then the incentive to go through this much trouble to retain much of the value you create is much smaller.

nit: self-driving talent doesn't currently earn anything, but rather holds some long-term strategic value

I would summarize this effect as BigCorp HR being much more disciplined/constrained on individual compensation than the M&A department. Naturally, well-positioned and clever employees will capitalize on this.

Re: Another Group of Google Veterans Starts a Self-Driving Technology Company

#14
post #11

The bet on maps is interesting. I'm of the personal opinion that in the long run only machine learning can solve autonomous driving, but both MobilEye and now this company both have invested heavily into maps. MobilEye makes sense, they have vested financial reasons that dictate what they do, so they can't turn their back on maps which they've been using for such a long time. On the other hand, starting a company in…

Cruise (now part of GM) also relies heavily on maps, based on a talk I saw their lead CV guy make. It does make a good deal of sense - maps (at least street-maps) are mostly static and they make the problem way easier, so why not use them. In fact, most people these days are implicitly using maps - how often do people drive to new places without GPS navigation? Of course, vision and likely ML are still a necessary pa…

> "In fact, most people these days are implicitly using maps - how often do people drive to new places without GPS navigation?"

I'd argue also they're using maps in an even more fundamental way - most driving occurs in places where the driver has already been, and relying on a wetware-stored map is a critical part of safe and effective driving.

Local knowledge - traffic patterns, weird traffic signal setups, difficult lane changes, etc, is pretty critical to driving well.

Re: Another Group of Google Veterans Starts a Self-Driving Technology Company

#15

The bet on maps is interesting. I'm of the personal opinion that in the long run only machine learning can solve autonomous driving, but both MobilEye and now this company both have invested heavily into maps. MobilEye makes sense, they have vested financial reasons that dictate what they do, so they can't turn their back on maps which they've been using for such a long time. On the other hand, starting a company in…

The betting is not only interesting, but actually an excellent bet, in fact, very strategic. Learning to drive is only part of the formulas. As I stated this probably 10th time on HN, we need real data about road condition in order to make self-driving really successful. DeepMap is only part that solution, but we still need real data in real time. We need a real network communication in the transportation space. Take flight control, instead of having a person coordinating, we can make computer programs to do that coordination; now apply that to driving. This is not only a data challenge (because there is very little authentic data to collect from to begin with), but also a huge challenge in network communication.

Re: Another Group of Google Veterans Starts a Self-Driving Technology Company

#18
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cruise (now part of GM) also relies heavily on maps, based on a talk I saw their lead CV guy make. It does make a good deal of sense - maps (at least street-maps) are mostly static and they make the problem way easier, so why not use them. In fact, most people these days are implicitly using maps - how often do people drive to new places without GPS navigation? Of course, vision and likely ML are still a necessary pa…

> "In fact, most people these days are implicitly using maps - how often do people drive to new places without GPS navigation?" I'd argue also they're using maps in an even more fundamental way - most driving occurs in places where the driver has already been, and relying on a wetware-stored map is a critical part of safe and effective driving. Local knowledge - traffic patterns, weird traffic signal setups, difficul…

If I have been to the destination multiple of times, I usually don't open map, I leave my phone off, or I let Pokemon Go running. But sometimes I do use map to seek for alternate faster route if I am in a hurry even if I am familiar with some alternate routes just to be sure.

Since I don't use Waze (horrible experience), Google Map won't tell me there's a camera ahead, or police is ahead.

Re: Another Group of Google Veterans Starts a Self-Driving Technology Company

#20
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "In fact, most people these days are implicitly using maps - how often do people drive to new places without GPS navigation?" I'd argue also they're using maps in an even more fundamental way - most driving occurs in places where the driver has already been, and relying on a wetware-stored map is a critical part of safe and effective driving. Local knowledge - traffic patterns, weird traffic signal setups, difficul…

If I have been to the destination multiple of times, I usually don't open map, I leave my phone off, or I let Pokemon Go running. But sometimes I do use map to seek for alternate faster route if I am in a hurry even if I am familiar with some alternate routes just to be sure. Since I don't use Waze (horrible experience), Google Map won't tell me there's a camera ahead, or police is ahead.

Right - I may have phrased my point badly. The idea is that all effective driving relies on pre-mapping, either via digital means (your phone) or human means (your brain).

The expectation that self-driving can be perfected without any kind of pre-mapping and the system can behave at high reliably in-situ seems unreasonable. Even humans can't do that.

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