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Puerto Rico files for biggest ever U.S. local government bankruptcy

reuters.com

31–40 of 481 posts

Re: Puerto Rico files for biggest ever U.S. local government bankruptcy

#31
post #5

I have lived all my life in Puerto Rico, and as you can imagine, this issue is quite controversial. We owe money to the creditors... and what you do with a debt is to you pay it off. Yet the amount is so staggering, that I wonder if it's actually possible. As is typical, decisions by politicians placed us in this situation. Decade after decade, 4-year term after 4-year term, the government has spent money it does not…

>Lots of people are leaving the island, which just compounds the problem (less revenue).

This is one of the effects of Puerto Rico being subject to US minimum wages. Since it's illegal for large portions of the population to receive pay commensurate to the value they're able to produce, and it is legal to move to the US, guess what folks do?

Re: Puerto Rico files for biggest ever U.S. local government bankruptcy

#32
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We owe money to the creditors... and what you do with a debt is to you pay it off. That's not the case. Sometimes, you pay your debt off. Sometimes, you default, and file for bankruptcy. For lenders, it's the cost of doing business. If they don't want to deal with the possibility of bankruptcy, they shouldn't lend out money. Lenders charge creditors a premium, because of the risk of default. It's as much on them to…

That's true in any individual case. But if we make it our social norm that bankruptcy is nothing to be ashamed of and to be taken lightly, won't it change the equilibrium for future generations of lenders and borrowers such that an inefficiently low amount of lending goes on? If everyone has the expectation that the lenders and borrowers will try their best to live up to the contract they made in good faith, wouldn't…

Limited companies go bankrupt all the time. Do we consider it an "ethical failure" when some VC funded company folds, leaving a whole bunch of people they owe money to with nothing?

Re: Puerto Rico files for biggest ever U.S. local government bankruptcy

#33

I feel like local governments are going to be the first to really be affected by significant pension overlays that are not properly accounted for -- a lot of pension funds assume rates of return that are historically farcical. I think the industry average used to be about 8%. "During the 20th Century, the Dow advanced from 66 to 11,497. This gain, though it appears huge, shrinks to 5.3% when compounded annually." htt…

I think the concern is overblown. States will need to backstop local governments, and the federal government will backstop the states. Benefits will get (mostly paid); taxes will go up (they have to, they're at unsustainable historic lows). This is not the end of the world.

My biggest concern and issue with the federal government backstopping pensions is that the vast majority of people would now be paying for benefits for people who rendered services in areas they didn't live. Because the populace of one city voted to give certain benefits to public sector employees why should I be held accountable for that decision? I neither had a vote nor partook of their services.

I am sure I am being very naive here but this seems to me to be the essence of taxation without representation.

Re: Puerto Rico files for biggest ever U.S. local government bankruptcy

#34
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's true in any individual case. But if we make it our social norm that bankruptcy is nothing to be ashamed of and to be taken lightly, won't it change the equilibrium for future generations of lenders and borrowers such that an inefficiently low amount of lending goes on? If everyone has the expectation that the lenders and borrowers will try their best to live up to the contract they made in good faith, wouldn't…

If someone has already defaulted on a loan, that will make you not want to lend to him anymore, perfect. If the Puerto Rico government defaults now, no banks should lend money to it again ever. Perfect. This outcome doesn't affect other lender-borrower relationships.

>>If someone has already defaulted on a loan, that will make you not want to lend to him anymore, perfect.

Yep, for example this is why no American bank will give loans to Donald Trump anymore. Too many bankruptcies. So he isn't worth the risk.

Re: Puerto Rico files for biggest ever U.S. local government bankruptcy

#35
All that text about Puerto Rico's financial difficulties and not one mention of the rampant fraud that spun up the debt from a reasonable amount to the $XB that is likely to default is the result of graft, corruption, and fraud enabled by many US and international actors.

Want to take a guess how many of those responsible for the transactions, debt issues, and back-office fund transfers are in jail and all their assets seized to repay the debt, a la Civil Forfeiture for drug crimes in the US?

I feel bad for the Citizens of Puerto Rico, because here in Dallas the Fire and Police Pension fund is probably insolvent due to a combination of graft and incompetence as well, and those responsible in both these circumstances seem to just shrug it off and go on with life, their pockets lined more than 90% will ever see in 20 years of hard work.

Talking about the debt in Puerto Rico without firmly acknowledging the conditions that led to it is irresponsible in my opinion. Hard to separate the two. And, if we're going to talk about accountability for the latter, then we should nail those who committed the former first. Likelihood of that? Heh, yeah I'm not optimistic - doesn't mean I can espouse what I believe to be a justifiable alternate course.

Re: Puerto Rico files for biggest ever U.S. local government bankruptcy

#36
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We owe money to the creditors... and what you do with a debt is to you pay it off. That's not the case. Sometimes, you pay your debt off. Sometimes, you default, and file for bankruptcy. For lenders, it's the cost of doing business. If they don't want to deal with the possibility of bankruptcy, they shouldn't lend out money. Lenders charge creditors a premium, because of the risk of default. It's as much on them to…

That's true in any individual case. But if we make it our social norm that bankruptcy is nothing to be ashamed of and to be taken lightly, won't it change the equilibrium for future generations of lenders and borrowers such that an inefficiently low amount of lending goes on? If everyone has the expectation that the lenders and borrowers will try their best to live up to the contract they made in good faith, wouldn't…

Well your default risk is priced into the yield of the bond you issue.

If you've defaulted in the past, your cost of capital will go up in the future.

You can weigh the future effects of renegotiating your debt now, and make a decision.

Iirc GM debt holders took a large haircut in their bond holdings. GM is still a going concern and I'm sure they've issued debt in the last few years after their restructuring.

Re: Puerto Rico files for biggest ever U.S. local government bankruptcy

#37
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We owe money to the creditors... and what you do with a debt is to you pay it off. That's not the case. Sometimes, you pay your debt off. Sometimes, you default, and file for bankruptcy. For lenders, it's the cost of doing business. If they don't want to deal with the possibility of bankruptcy, they shouldn't lend out money. Lenders charge creditors a premium, because of the risk of default. It's as much on them to…

That's true in any individual case. But if we make it our social norm that bankruptcy is nothing to be ashamed of and to be taken lightly, won't it change the equilibrium for future generations of lenders and borrowers such that an inefficiently low amount of lending goes on? If everyone has the expectation that the lenders and borrowers will try their best to live up to the contract they made in good faith, wouldn't…

"it change the equilibrium for future generations of lenders and borrowers such that an inefficiently low amount of lending goes on?"

Well, one of the questions is whether the modern definition of "efficient amount of lending" is in fact the correct value. If we're undervaluing the risk of a fat tail of defaults, and worse, correlated defaults, then the true "efficient amount of lending" may in fact be less than it is today, even much less.

Ten years ago, I could have said that if you looked around, it seemed like a there were an awful lot of entities carrying debt loads that they couldn't possible discharge and default seemed inevitable. Of course, I would have been poopooed and had the claim dismissed because, basically, "debt is good for the economy". Now we live in a world where at least some of those debts have indeed caused catastrophe; Greece is still reeling, the stresses that financial crisis put on the EU are still echoing, Puerto Rico is now declaring bankruptcy, and the "financial crisis" that we have still really not "recovered" from was 100% driven by debt and the slicing and dicing thereto. In light of that, take another fresh look around at the sheer staggering number of entities in massive and probably unsustainable amounts of debt right now, and in light of the fact that it is clearly not impossible for them to default after all... what happens next?

Furthermore, this sort of implicitly presumes that "lending" is the only possible method for attaining the goals, but there are other possibilities, such as selling equity stakes. Selling equity stakes are not equivalent to lending, which indeed is part of the point, and fully exploring the second-order consequences would be on the order of a PhD thesis or beyond, but at least equity-based systems don't have the catastrophic collapse that debt-based systems do due to the lack of leverage. In an equity system, an entity can lose its shirt, but if it does, that's that and it's all done. In a debt-based system, an entity can lose more than its shirt.

And, you know, human society has discovered more than once that debt-based systems are attractive nuisances where the long-term dangers strongly outweigh the short-term gains. I hesitate to directly apply the lessons of the past because a lot of things have changed about the financial world in the last hundred years... but that doesn't guarantee that the modern world won't in fact dig itself in even deeper than any of the ancient civilizations did, with much greater skill, and consuming all the slack in the system before the collapse far more effectively than the ancient world could ever have dreamed of.

Re: Puerto Rico files for biggest ever U.S. local government bankruptcy

#38

All that text about Puerto Rico's financial difficulties and not one mention of the rampant fraud that spun up the debt from a reasonable amount to the $XB that is likely to default is the result of graft, corruption, and fraud enabled by many US and international actors. Want to take a guess how many of those responsible for the transactions, debt issues, and back-office fund transfers are in jail and all their asse…

Would love to read more on the subject if you have links to both the PR and Dallas situations handy.

Re: Puerto Rico files for biggest ever U.S. local government bankruptcy

#39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the concern is overblown. States will need to backstop local governments, and the federal government will backstop the states. Benefits will get (mostly paid); taxes will go up (they have to, they're at unsustainable historic lows). This is not the end of the world.

My biggest concern and issue with the federal government backstopping pensions is that the vast majority of people would now be paying for benefits for people who rendered services in areas they didn't live. Because the populace of one city voted to give certain benefits to public sector employees why should I be held accountable for that decision? I neither had a vote nor partook of their services. I am sure I am be…

The EPA is going to spend millions of dollars to clean up Flint, Michigan's water supply lines; you don't get a say in that either.

"Representation" is a bit of a vague concept in US governance.

Re: Puerto Rico files for biggest ever U.S. local government bankruptcy

#40
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's true in any individual case. But if we make it our social norm that bankruptcy is nothing to be ashamed of and to be taken lightly, won't it change the equilibrium for future generations of lenders and borrowers such that an inefficiently low amount of lending goes on? If everyone has the expectation that the lenders and borrowers will try their best to live up to the contract they made in good faith, wouldn't…

If someone has already defaulted on a loan, that will make you not want to lend to him anymore, perfect. If the Puerto Rico government defaults now, no banks should lend money to it again ever. Perfect. This outcome doesn't affect other lender-borrower relationships.

That isn't how it works. It is never how it worked. Plenty of countries have defaulted, and they can still borrow money.

And yeah, it does effect other lender-borrower relationships. It's all people, and people get nervous.

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