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German Tank Problem

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Re: German Tank Problem

#61

Post by eru »

eru wrote: post #59
arethuza wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well said, my father was in the RAF in WW2 and he always made it very clear to me that in his opinion it was the bravery and sacrifices of the Soviet people that were mainly responsible for the defeat of the Nazis. Of course, when I was younger and the Soviet's were the "evil empire" it was difficult for me to believe this. Now, having read a lot of military history, I share his view.

Evil and brave don't contradict each other.

Although I have to admit that evil isn't a very useful concept in history or politics.

Re: German Tank Problem

#62

Post by alex_h »

I guess one might also want to take into account the probability of capturing 5 tanks with all odd serial numbers (3.125%) vs the probability that the Germans had numbered their tanks in increments of 2

Re: German Tank Problem

#64

Post by tokenadult »

cabalamat wrote: post #60
tokenadult wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the outcome of the war was decided by a few Russian snowflakes Not by cracking Enigma? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptanalysis_of_the_Enigma And remember, "the war" was also being fought in the Pacific, also with a spectacular imbalance in cryptology strength between the Allies and the Axis. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_naval_codes http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_%28cryptography%29 In general, code-bre…

What decided the war in the Pacific was that the USA had vastly more industrial capability than Japan. Even if Japan's leaders had made all the right decisions, and America's leaders done everything wrong, America would still have won any protracted war between the two countries.

Even if Japan's leaders had made all the right decisions, and America's leaders done everything wrong

If America's leaders had done everything wrong, they would have ended the war without big territorial gains for their side, with a negotiated peace leaving Japan in control of Asia. (That, by the way, is exactly what Japan's leaders got wrong from the strategic point of view. They really believed before the war started that that was a likely outcome of the war. They didn't count on the Allies insisting upon unconditional surrender after the sneak attacks on Pearl Harbor and Singapore.)

Re: German Tank Problem

#65

Post by tokenadult »

balding_n_tired wrote: post #56
InclinedPlane wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

BS. Sure, the Russian winters harmed the German war machine greatly, but it's not as though that alone was the sole determiner of the outcome of the war. Even had the winters been milder the Russian forces would still have taken a heavy toll on the Germans and were nearly guaranteed to win that conflict by benefit of logistics alone. Moreover, even had Russia fallen to Germany the American/UK military might by 1945 w…

The UK military might was pretty strained by 1944. It was with great reluctance that the British agreed to an invasion of France in 1944.

Source for this statement?

Re: German Tank Problem

#66

Post by run4yourlives »

tokenadult wrote: post #21
run4yourlives wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sometimes though, information denial is more of a pain in the ass than a gain. For all the intelligence directed at Nazi Germany during WWII, the outcome of the war was decided by a few Russian snowflakes, really.

the outcome of the war was decided by a few Russian snowflakes Not by cracking Enigma? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptanalysis_of_the_Enigma And remember, "the war" was also being fought in the Pacific, also with a spectacular imbalance in cryptology strength between the Allies and the Axis. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_naval_codes http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_%28cryptography%29 In general, code-bre…

Not by cracking Enigma?

No, not by cracking Enigma.

Enigma didn't result in 750,000 casualties and 900 Aircraft losses. Stalingrad did.

Enigma didn't result in the loss of the Sixth Army. Stalingrad did.

Enigma didn't change the scenario from Germany controlling all of Europe and its resources to playing defense from two sides. Stalingrad did.

For all the bravery and blood shed by the red army, their winter is the thing that changed the outcome of the battle. The winter forced a halt in the German advance, allowed the Russians to regroup and was the number one casualty producer for the nazi's.

I don't undervalue the contribution code breaking made to that war, but there was only one turning point, and it came , very clearly, in Russia.

Re: German Tank Problem

#67

Post by run4yourlives »

tokenadult wrote: post #64
cabalamat wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What decided the war in the Pacific was that the USA had vastly more industrial capability than Japan. Even if Japan's leaders had made all the right decisions, and America's leaders done everything wrong, America would still have won any protracted war between the two countries.

Even if Japan's leaders had made all the right decisions, and America's leaders done everything wrong If America's leaders had done everything wrong, they would have ended the war without big territorial gains for their side, with a negotiated peace leaving Japan in control of Asia. (That, by the way, is exactly what Japan's leaders got wrong from the strategic point of view. They really believed before the war start…

US leaders did do almost everything wrong until well into the war.

They were saved from their mistakes by superior equipment (especially aircraft) and eventually better and more experience personnel. They didn't start tactically winning battles until well into the Pacific Campaign.

Re: German Tank Problem

#68

Post by eru »

cema wrote: post #63
eru wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Although I have to admit that evil isn't a very useful concept in history or politics.

And yet, the Nazis were evil.

Perversely, they prided themselves on their animal friendly policies.

Re: German Tank Problem

#69

Post by aristus »

mturmon wrote: post #16
jules wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there for every commonly used frequentist estimation method a bayesian prior that gives the same answer?

For every commonly used frequentist estimator, there is an uncountable infinity of intractable Bayesian estimators.

...probably.

Re: German Tank Problem

#70

Post by [deleted] »

davidcuddeback wrote: post #38
hugh3 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's right -- you'd have to change something big -- ie the identities of the belligerents -- or to give the nuclear bomb to Germany. But you can't reverse the outcome by changing something small (like Enigma or the weather in Russia). No offence to Turing et al, of course -- they still saved gazillions of lives.

The weather in Russia is by no means something that I would call "small." It helped the Russians defeat Napoleon in 1812. When the Germans invaded, they were ill-prepared as well. They're vehicles couldn't cope with the cold, so in the winter months, they were bombarded by Soviet bombers but couldn't get any of their own planes in the air. They couldn't move vehicles because the ground turns to mud (they ended up usi…

[deleted]
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