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German Tank Problem

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Re: German Tank Problem

#21

Post by tokenadult »

run4yourlives wrote: post #13
lmkg wrote: post #3

Key quote: > The statisticians believed that the Germans, being Germans, had logically numbered their tanks in the order in which they were produced. The moral of the story is, never do anything that could give your opponent information, unless you're controlling what information they receive. It would be better to produce tanks with pseudo-random serial numbers, up to a maximum of whatever you want your enemy to thi…

Sometimes though, information denial is more of a pain in the ass than a gain. For all the intelligence directed at Nazi Germany during WWII, the outcome of the war was decided by a few Russian snowflakes, really.

the outcome of the war was decided by a few Russian snowflakes

Not by cracking Enigma?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptanalysis_of_the_Enigma

And remember, "the war" was also being fought in the Pacific, also with a spectacular imbalance in cryptology strength between the Allies and the Axis.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_naval_codes

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_%28cryptography%29

In general, code-breaking had a lot to do with the outcome of the war.

http://www.cs.virginia.edu/jillcrypto/

Re: German Tank Problem

#22

Post by thefool »

Devilboy wrote: post #19
hngryhppos wrote: post #18

I want to comment on how pretentious that website title is ("three standard deviations to the left"). I took that to imply the author (or his intended audience) is three standard deviations above average (intelligence?). Anyway, he says he am IB teacher... not surprised, this attitude of intellectual superiority is an IB hallmark.

Wouldn't that be 3 SDs to the RIGHT instead?

Yeah I took it as meaning a website for the brain-dead, which was much wittier than pretentious.

Unless he meant right and said left, which is even funnier.

Re: German Tank Problem

#23

Post by tokenadult »

eru wrote: post #20
run4yourlives wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sometimes though, information denial is more of a pain in the ass than a gain. For all the intelligence directed at Nazi Germany during WWII, the outcome of the war was decided by a few Russian snowflakes, really.

The convoy system in the North Atlantic also made a huge difference. Imagine Britain and the US shut off.

A really exciting book about this phase of the war, which will be of interest to any math-oriented hacker, is The Pleasures of Counting by T. W. Körner.

http://www.amazon.com/Pleasures-Counting-T-W-K%C3%B6rner/dp/...

Re: German Tank Problem

#24

Post by eru »

tokenadult wrote: post #23
eru wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The convoy system in the North Atlantic also made a huge difference. Imagine Britain and the US shut off.

A really exciting book about this phase of the war, which will be of interest to any math-oriented hacker, is The Pleasures of Counting by T. W. Körner. http://www.amazon.com/Pleasures-Counting-T-W-K%C3%B6rner/dp/...

Indeed. And not only about this phase of the war, but also about Cholera and the dimensions of the Egyptian pyramids and much more.

(Now that I live in Cambridge, I should really go and try to mee T.W. Körner.)

From the author's website (http://www.dpmms.cam.ac.uk/~twk/):

"Next let me remind you that The Pleasures of Counting is still available from all good bookshops. Longer than `With Rod and Line Through the Gobi Desert', funnier than `The Wit and Wisdom of the German General Staff' and with more formulae than `A Brief History of Time' it was voted Book of the Year by a panel consisting of Mrs E. Körner, Mrs W. Körner, Miss K. Körner and Dr A. Altman (née Körner)."

Re: German Tank Problem

#26

Post by hugh3 »

eru wrote: post #20
run4yourlives wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sometimes though, information denial is more of a pain in the ass than a gain. For all the intelligence directed at Nazi Germany during WWII, the outcome of the war was decided by a few Russian snowflakes, really.

The convoy system in the North Atlantic also made a huge difference. Imagine Britain and the US shut off.

Even if it hadn't been for Enigma, and even if it hadn't been for the weather in Russia, I still don't think it's possible to construct a sensible scenario where the eventual outcome of the war is delayed by more than a few months.

If VE day didn't come in May thanks to Turing, it would have come in August thanks to Oppenheimer.

Re: German Tank Problem

#27

Post by eru »

hugh3 wrote: post #26
eru wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The convoy system in the North Atlantic also made a huge difference. Imagine Britain and the US shut off.

Even if it hadn't been for Enigma, and even if it hadn't been for the weather in Russia, I still don't think it's possible to construct a sensible scenario where the eventual outcome of the war is delayed by more than a few months. If VE day didn't come in May thanks to Turing, it would have come in August thanks to Oppenheimer.

Depends on which kind of facts you are prepared to alter. E.g. you could construct scenarios where Germany and the Soviet Union would not attack each other. Or where the U.S. would not enter the war.

Re: German Tank Problem

#28

Post by tokenadult »

eru wrote: post #24
tokenadult wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A really exciting book about this phase of the war, which will be of interest to any math-oriented hacker, is The Pleasures of Counting by T. W. Körner. http://www.amazon.com/Pleasures-Counting-T-W-K%C3%B6rner/dp/...

Indeed. And not only about this phase of the war, but also about Cholera and the dimensions of the Egyptian pyramids and much more. (Now that I live in Cambridge, I should really go and try to mee T.W. Körner.) From the author's website ( http://www.dpmms.cam.ac.uk/~twk/ ): "Next let me remind you that The Pleasures of Counting is still available from all good bookshops. Longer than `With Rod and Line Through the Gob…

Yes, the book is laugh-out-loud funny in surprising places.

Miss K. Körner is quite a fine mathematician in her own right.

http://nrich.maths.org/2756

http://www.math.harvard.edu/people/KornerKatherine.html

Re: German Tank Problem

#29

Post by gametheory »

hugh3 wrote: post #26
eru wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The convoy system in the North Atlantic also made a huge difference. Imagine Britain and the US shut off.

Even if it hadn't been for Enigma, and even if it hadn't been for the weather in Russia, I still don't think it's possible to construct a sensible scenario where the eventual outcome of the war is delayed by more than a few months. If VE day didn't come in May thanks to Turing, it would have come in August thanks to Oppenheimer.

Scenario 1: The Germans decide to not kill the jews, and even let the top Jewish physicists stay. With their help, the Germans create a nuclear weapon in 1943-44 instead of canceling the whole project in 1942.

Scenario 2: The guy in charge of the Luftwaffe isn't a complete retard. The germans finish off the french instead of letting them run off to britain, they then invade Britain, not giving the Americans a base of operations.

I can keep going.

Re: German Tank Problem

#30

Post by eru »

tokenadult wrote: post #28
eru wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. And not only about this phase of the war, but also about Cholera and the dimensions of the Egyptian pyramids and much more. (Now that I live in Cambridge, I should really go and try to mee T.W. Körner.) From the author's website ( http://www.dpmms.cam.ac.uk/~twk/ ): "Next let me remind you that The Pleasures of Counting is still available from all good bookshops. Longer than `With Rod and Line Through the Gob…

Yes, the book is laugh-out-loud funny in surprising places. Miss K. Körner is quite a fine mathematician in her own right. http://nrich.maths.org/2756 http://www.math.harvard.edu/people/KornerKatherine.html

It's a shame that `The Wit and Wisdom of the German General Staff' doesn't exist.
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