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How Google Could Collapse

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Re: How Google Could Collapse

#41

Post by Markoff »

dragonwriter wrote: post #30
Markoff wrote: post #24

why is 35-44 years group least likely to use adblockers? looks odd to me compared to older groups https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*o6B3OtXfG9pqwRDru...

> why is 35-44 years group least likely to use adblockers? looks odd to me compared to older groups Probably because the older group has progressively greater propensity to have other, younger people setting up their computers.

hmm, it sort of make sense, not so young anymore, but not that old with helpful young children (usually) plus also as other user mentioned in combination with work computers it makes sense, but I would still think that 65+ group will get less tech support or they just don't care that much about ads, but who knows...

Re: How Google Could Collapse

#42

Post by JKCalhoun »

skybrian wrote: post #23
JKCalhoun wrote: post #5

"Ads are cool as long as they are relevant to me," said no one ever (who wasn't in the business of selling online advertising). (EDIT: typo)

Game and movie trailers are ads. People not only don't mind them, they seek them out and share them. (There do seem to be too many movie trailers these days before the movie starts, but I think we'd miss them if they were gone entirely.)

Imagine they auto-play and take 10x the bandwidth that the page you're visiting does. Sucks on bobile.

(I avoid trailers these days since in the past they have ruined movies for me either by setting expectations too high or simply showing too much of the movie.)

Re: How Google Could Collapse

#43

Post by gpawl »

zipwitch wrote: post #37
dragonwriter wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And even if revenue did start dropping, unless it totally collapses overnight, Alphabet's enormous cash stockpile buys a lot of breathing room.

They could always try to more dirctly monetize gmail.

Do young people use gmail?

Re: How Google Could Collapse

#44

Post by clarkmoody »

Markoff wrote: post #27
panarky wrote: post #19

Summary: more people are blocking ads and starting product searches at Amazon, so Google will lose their core business. And yet, the growth of Google's core business isn't declining and it hasn't even leveled off -- growth is actually accelerating! Year-over-year revenues are growing faster now than they did last year. Same thing with earnings. And margins are expanding instead of shrinking. Source: https://abc.xyz/i…

not sure about rest of Europe, but when I search for product I go to local price comparison website, which is much more popular than Amazon, since by my experience pretty much everything on Amazon is more expensive than in plenty of local shops, other option would be I guess Aliexpress if it's not rushing and doesn't have to be some specific brand article seem to be as usual very US-centric, Google is huge in Europe,…

> search (easily replacable)

Search is a complete free market, and there are other competitors in the space. User switching costs are nearly zero, since choosing a different search engine is as easy as typing a URL. Yet, Google persists in adding the most value to user searches and dominates the space.

I'm not sure how easily Google Search will be dethroned.

Re: How Google Could Collapse

#45

Post by gpawl »

woah wrote: post #38
rickdg wrote: post #2

Have we stopped evaluating companies based on vision and expectations? Because mapping all of reality is a pretty solid strategy that Google is striving for.

So far, it's an ad agency with hobbies. The inspirational quotes they feed their employees and shareholders shouldn't distract you from their actual business.

You think that trying to teach a computer everything about everything doesn't support ad revenue?

Google has a lot of ads customers. Why do those customers use Google?

Re: How Google Could Collapse

#46

Post by pinaceae »

panarky wrote: post #19

Summary: more people are blocking ads and starting product searches at Amazon, so Google will lose their core business. And yet, the growth of Google's core business isn't declining and it hasn't even leveled off -- growth is actually accelerating! Year-over-year revenues are growing faster now than they did last year. Same thing with earnings. And margins are expanding instead of shrinking. Source: https://abc.xyz/i…

Not arguing about Google, but careful with using revenue growth as a leading indicator.

RIM/Blackberry's best years in numbers happened AFTER the iPhone launched.

Life comes at you fast.

Re: How Google Could Collapse

#47

Post by chinathrow »

zipwitch wrote: post #37
dragonwriter wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And even if revenue did start dropping, unless it totally collapses overnight, Alphabet's enormous cash stockpile buys a lot of breathing room.

They could always try to more dirctly monetize gmail.

You mean like unroll.me?

Re: How Google Could Collapse

#48

Post by dragonwriter »

partiallypro wrote: post #21
jeffjose wrote: post #3

Unnecessarily alarmist. It's true that Google isnt making free ad money anymore and other companies are viable threats unlike Yahoo and Microsoft of 2004. Google has lots of monetizable balls in the air - Cloud, Pixel line and few others.

But still ads are ~95% of their revenues. Google has a lot of balls in the air and only one of them is profitable. Microsoft and Samsung have made more money from Android than Google has. The alarmism is definitely overblown, but don't paint Google as a company with diverse revenue streams, because it's not. Alexa and Google Home are mostly gimmicks at this point, they are by no means a threat to Google's core revenu…

> But still ads are ~95% of their revenues.

~88%, but there's still $3 billion quarterly in other revenue in Google.

> Google has a lot of balls in the air and only one of them is profitable.

That's not clear, because while Alphabet breaks out operating income and loss between Google and Other Bets, they don't break out that within Google, only breaking out Revenue. At least in summary docs. Other Bets aren't profitable, but it's not at all clear that the non-advertising parts of Google aren't.

Re: How Google Could Collapse

#50

Post by gpawl »

Markoff wrote: post #24

why is 35-44 years group least likely to use adblockers? looks odd to me compared to older groups https://cdn-images-1.medium.com/max/1000/1*o6B3OtXfG9pqwRDru...

> why is 35-44 years group least likely to use adblockers?

They don't, not according to that graph. Some national segments do, others don't. Looks like margin of error to me.

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