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Fusion reactors: Not what they’re cracked up to be

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Re: Fusion reactors: Not what they’re cracked up to be

#121
This is an interesting article from Dr. Jassby who has both patents and papers on Fusion going back to 1977 at least.

And there are at least two things that stand out for me, the first is that he goes out of his way to craft a narrative that is negative, and the second he doesn't mention the half dozen or so fusion efforts that are on going beside the NIF and ITER projects.

The interesting thing about the narrative is that it takes 'positive' things and puts them in a negative context. For example it takes power to run a fusion reactor, and while the reactor can generate that power it lowers the net output. At the same time, if there is a problem and the reactor turns off, and there is no 'cool down' problem like there is in a fission reactor. No steaming pile of intermediate fission products decaying to generate way too much heat long after you turned the off switch to off. You can portray that as "gee it has to waste a huge chunk of energy just keeping itself running." but that seems trivial given that things like cars have the same issue. Part of the engine power goes into run the fuel pump, or the alternator.

This sort of thing recurs in the article and is perhaps most egregious in characterizing the neutron flux as a proliferation hazard. While it is absolutely true you could design a fusion reactor whose purpose was to create fissile material for bombs, that design would look nothing like a power reactor, nor could you easily (maybe even possibly), actually 'convert' a design that had been built and deployed to generate power into one that could create fissile material. So what is the goal of combining the 'facts' that high neutron fluxes of low energy neutrons can weaponize U238, and that fusion power generation can generate high neutron fluxes, without also explaining that a fusion reactor designed to make power couldn't possibly be co-opted to make bombs? Why leave the inconvenient fact off unless you're attempting to mislead the reader? And what is the point of misleading them?

And that really makes me wonder, what exactly is Dr. Jassby trying to say here? I could completely understand an article that says "Hey, while fusion has some desirable properties, it is going to be expensive, and from where I sit it is going to be more expensive than the power it generates is worth." That is a perfectly reasonable discussion to have and one that should be had with people looking at building fusion devices.

It also makes me wonder why he doesn't mention some of the other groups who are designing and building much simpler and perhaps more efficient systems (in terms of net energy production). Does he not keep up with the field or does he omit them because they don't add to the generally negative tone? All in all this article left me with more questions than insights.

Re: Fusion reactors: Not what they’re cracked up to be

#122

There's nothing quite like trying to get fusion to work for a while to make you appreciate how awesome fission technology is. If we applied even half the cleverness needed for fusion to making better fission technology, we'd probably be way better off. ...and then there's solar. Why even bother with producing the energy, just capture it with a very thin solid state device! Just need to automate the planting of solar…

Really the only reasonable world wide solar plan I've ever seen is solar power satellites. There has been a lot of work done there and they beam the energy back to the planet as microwaves where it is needed into the existing grid system. But so far the cost of getting all of that material into orbit to build them is something of a deal breaker.

Re: Fusion reactors: Not what they’re cracked up to be

#123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why wouldn't an African nation want to charge rent to some European country for vast amounts of land that are otherwise literally worthless[1]? It's not like they're strangers to private company security forces that are basically just extrajudicial mercenaries. History says any company that wants to do this just needs to apply some bribes to the appropriate officials. [1] In the sense that nobody is willing to buy it…

Yeah, I'm sure it'll look just great that Germany or whoever is stationing the Wehrmacht in northern Africa, and no one will complain about that... /s You really think that's a viable way to maintain the electric power supply for all of Europe? "What could possibly go wrong?!"

It won't be uniformed European troops. It will be Blackwater type mercenaries. They'll have an implicit license to kill and/or abuse any locals. That's how you do security for European companies in Africa.

Re: Fusion reactors: Not what they’re cracked up to be

#124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

About a decade ago, there was a book written which looked at the ability of Great Britain to become self-sufficient entirely in renewable energy ( https://www.withouthotair.com/ looks to be the URL). It concluded that there is literally not enough renewable energy potential in Great Britain (e.g., cover every square millimeter of space with solar panels) to do so at then-current energy consumption rates. It also poin…

"It concluded that there is literally not enough renewable energy potential in Great Britain (e.g., cover every square millimeter of space with solar panels) to do so at then-current energy consumption rates." That is false, though. Just a little math shows why. The UK is 242,500 km². Nameplate solar capacity on that would be on the order of 150MW/km², so 36 Terawatts. UK average electrical consumption is 32 /Giga/wa…

Even if you include TOTAL energy instead of electrical energy (in the US, electricity is responsible for 40% of energy use, so I'll use that as a guesstimate), and assume 100MW/km^2 instead of 150 (even though I already accounted for that in the cloudy winter day part), you're still producing about 3.7 times as much energy on that cloudy winter day than the total UK energy use. And that's before we use higher efficiency solar panels or deep sea hydrogen seasonal storage (the latter of which is one of the very few sensible seasonal energy storage methods).

It's an absurd claim to say it's impossible, and there's almost nothing more annoying than a source claiming to be "without the hot air" actually being full of plenty of hot air on absolutist claims like this. You don't correct BS by using equal and opposite BS.

(Most energy advocates I know do this... both renewable advocates and nuclear advocates, exchanging BS about the opposite technology. It's a clean energy circular firing squad, with the climate in the middle.)

Re: Fusion reactors: Not what they’re cracked up to be

#125
post #87
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The 'reporter' "was a principal research physicist at the Princeton Plasma Physics Lab until 1999. For 25 years he worked in areas of plasma physics and neutron production related to fusion energy research and development. He holds a PhD in astrophysical sciences from Princeton University." Do you think it's perhaps possible that the author knows what he's talking about? If you'd continued reading after that second s…

I don't understand why the OP considers sneaky Pu239 production a proliferation problem, but doesn't consider unaccounted for tritium in the fuel cycle and the general availability of Li6 to bread more tritium a proliferation problem. Anyone?

You can build a bomb with plutonium but no tritium, so if you want to prevent countries from going nuclear that's what you need to stop.

Also, the plutonium production is the bottleneck. E.g. this article about the Pakistan nuclear weapons program[0] estimated that the 50 MW nuclear reactor in Kushab could be used to produce 10kg of plutonium and 100g of tritium per year. The plutonium would be enough for about 2 bombs, while the tritium would be enough for 20.

[0] http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Pakistan/PakArsenal.html

Re: Fusion reactors: Not what they’re cracked up to be

#126
post #114
post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Coal and nuclear are huge steam engines. They cool down when you turn them off which causes thermal stress and you then need to heat them up again before they can generate power. Thus Germany's problem is they have coal power plants in the first place. Gas turbines also have thermal stress, but they are designed for this and they loose vastly less power when you turn them off. With enough of them you can have zero st…

On the plus side, the CO2 from burning natural gas is less than coal and it doesn't emit mercury or the other particulates and doesn't have a waste issue like coal does. Unfortunately for those who care about climate change, (and if you don't, you should) there are inevitable methane releases from fracking and from distribution of natural gas and those are now known to be much worse than previously thought: >...Back…

100,000 tons of methane with a half life of less than 10 years. The math is complex and 1 ton of methane becomes more than one ton of CO2, but the actual long term impact is fairly minimal vs the savings from not using Coal. Remember that's ~100,000 tons / ~10,000,000,000 tons = 1/100,000 so yea methane is bad, but in this context it's 0.001% so it's still a rounding error even if it's 100 times that bad.

Anyway, I agree it's not without costs. But, if we got to the point where peaking power from gas makes up ~10% of total electricity supply and the rest of that is renewable power then we will have made massive progress. In other words don't let perfection stand in the way of progress.

Re: Fusion reactors: Not what they’re cracked up to be

#127

There's nothing quite like trying to get fusion to work for a while to make you appreciate how awesome fission technology is. If we applied even half the cleverness needed for fusion to making better fission technology, we'd probably be way better off. ...and then there's solar. Why even bother with producing the energy, just capture it with a very thin solid state device! Just need to automate the planting of solar…

Lots of people are trying to apply that cleverness to fission. The problem is that governments make life much harder for fission projects than for fusion projects. There's some justification for that; fission done well is great, but fission done badly can cause much more serious accidents than fusion done badly, and proliferation is much less of a concern with fusion.

Even so, the regulation is more of a problem than it needs to be. The NRC currently requires a near-complete design up front, costing several hundred million dollars, before they even hint at whether they'll approve your project. If they turn you down, you're done. If they approve, you've still just got paper; it's only then that you get to start experiments with nuclear material. If they just had a more incremental process it'd be a big help.

Meanwhile, people build deuterium fusion reactors in their basements and nobody bats an eye.

Re: Fusion reactors: Not what they’re cracked up to be

#128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not 100% positive that this is the right video, but I think it is. As part of the "overthrow a nation" plan, he talks specifically about destroying critical infrastructure, like electricity. The solution for taking out high voltage powerlines? A pair of Skilsaws hanging under a quadcopter. Drop down onto it and... something bad's going to happen! edit: I also missed the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1lhG…

Absolutely. The infrastructure is very fickle, but also enormous on the scale of countries. Since we're talking about hypotheticals, I could say these things are also true: 1. There are counter-drones deployed and patrolling air space above the towers. 2. There are hundreds of independent power lines with 2N redundancy, so cutting 5-10 high voltage lines would do nothing. 3. The undersea cable points are protected by…

I don't think the main problem here is random terrorists cutting power to Europe by blowing up a power line tower. The real problem is that nation states that control the Sahara haven't proven to be stable (Syria, Egypt), or don't always have great relationships with Europe (Algeria in the 90s).

As to points 4 and 5, although storage and some backup capacity is reasonably feasible, this would mean that Europe could very well be forced to go to war in short order to get their full power supply back if a rogue organization gained power in North Africa.

Re: Fusion reactors: Not what they’re cracked up to be

#129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have to think there are major ecological concerns with blocking sunlight over large areas. They may not be negative impacts, but surely it isn't a no-impact situation.

There is always some impact. There's a disease in our energy discussions where if something has ANY effect or can be measured at all, it is considered a big no-no. We lack a sense of proportion. Radiation is SUPER easy to measure even tiny amounts, for instance, since you can look for the signature of a certain decay tree, so people hear that you can measure radiation from Fukushima and lose their minds. Likewise, pe…

An example of this which always gets me with nuclear power is the waste problem. The fact that the waste remains dangerous for tens of thousands of years is always held up as a huge problem, completely ignoring the vast quantities of extremely poisonous chemical waste produced by other industries which lasts forever.

"This waste is dangerous." "OK, guess we'd better be careful with it."

"This waste is dangerous for the next 10,000 years." "Holy shit! We need to build a high-tech underground fortress to contain it!"

Re: Fusion reactors: Not what they’re cracked up to be

#130
post #25
post #7

It's weird to consider "parasitic" loss a problem. You just factor that into the total output. If it's high enough you're good.

Absolutely. Net output per $ of opex (+ amortization of capex, decommission costs, etc.) is the only relevant metric. Parasitic power loss is categorically not an issue. This is a mistake that engineers frequently make when they are too narrowly focused. You see it all the time in rocket engineering. The rocket equation dictates that performance drops off rapidly as the mass of the vehicle becomes heavier, or the eff…

I'm not entirely sure that what you listed is the reason SpaceX has been making such progress; NASA seems perfectly willing and capable of making cutting edge engines (or rather, their contractors do). Whether or not their organization has the risk-taking and agility to change approaches like SpaceX does, that's another matter.

However, I don't think in rocketry that "throwing propellant at the problem" is ever a solution, as propellant has weight. Efficiency is indeed incredibly important, because adding more fuel means having to lift more weight, which means you need a bigger engine, which needs more fuel to run, etc in a vicious cycle. One of the solutions of course, is to burn more of it at once (ie. multiple engines), but there's limits to what's feasible. (speed/atmospheric considerations.) In other words, it's not a linear matter of throwing more propellant. Costs can go up, quick.

Coming around to the issue at hand, I can absolutely see having a high minimum threshold for a fusion power plant, where the plant needs to be large enough to generate a sizable return (excess power) for it's initial outlay, but also be able to make the maximum return (high consumption) of that power generated. You can build a massive plant in the midwest, but if the demands on it are quite low, then the economics of it doesn't work out.

That means that the economically feasible scenarios for a fusion plant at this time are probably quite limited. I'm sure that will improve greatly over time. But it seems to be that the author's point is that right now, even assuming the technological issues are solved, it is probably isn't as cost-effective as some make it out to be.

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