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Fusion reactors: Not what they’re cracked up to be

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Re: Fusion reactors: Not what they’re cracked up to be

#81

There's nothing quite like trying to get fusion to work for a while to make you appreciate how awesome fission technology is. If we applied even half the cleverness needed for fusion to making better fission technology, we'd probably be way better off. ...and then there's solar. Why even bother with producing the energy, just capture it with a very thin solid state device! Just need to automate the planting of solar…

How exactly do you propose to get that electricity from the desert to say Finland? Furthermore, you need to plaster a vast area in the desert with solar plants, which brings along all sorts of concentrated security risks. The alternative is to have many smaller plants dispersed, which results in a big loss of efficiency. I'm all for clean energy, but you seem to be handwaving away pretty huge issues as "thought exerc…

> How exactly do you propose to get that electricity from the desert to say Finland?

High voltage DC transmission works fine for this problem. All of the engineering challenges have been credibly worked out and priced (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Desertec). The main problems with this approach are political, in that it requires massive cooperation between many countries over very long time scales (decades).

Why is there a security risk with putting solar in the desert? It seems like a relatively easy to secure location, and solar cells are hardly high value-density targets for theft or vandalism.

Re: Fusion reactors: Not what they’re cracked up to be

#82
I've been hearing about and hoping for fusion power since probably the 1980s. The more I think about it the more I think it's probably a pipe dream.

The idea appears so simple an elusive: combine Hydrogen into Helium (and there are variations that use Helium, particularly He-3 as a fuel), which releases energy. Hydrogen is essentially limitless (He, particularly He-3, less so). Stars do it all the time.

The two big problems are of course:

1. Containment. How do you contain something that's heated up to millions of degrees? Magnetic containment has been the obvious candidate since hydrogen heated sufficiently loses it's electrons and becomes a H+ ion but this so far seems far easier said than done; and

2. Neutrons. Fusion using deuterium, tritium, He-4 and He-3 releases varying amounts of neutrons. These can't be magnetically contained (obviously) and they're destructive. We can achieve fusion but neutrons end up pretty quickly destroying the containment vessel.

Stars solve the first problem quite easily: with gravity. This isn't something that's useful to us. A star exists in a state of a balance of two opposing forces: gravity from the sheer their sheer mass trying to crush them vs the outward pressure of the fusion processes they're undergoing.

The differences in potential size are massive. A star like our own sun will eventually become a red giant extending about to the orbit of the earth. That's 150 _million_ km. Likewise a star larger than ours can end up compressed to something 10 miles or less across. This just illustrates the differentials in forces involved.

At this point I'm honestly not convinced that this is an economically solvable problem. It's not sufficient to output more energy than you input either.

Let's say a fusion reactor costs $1B to produce, has maintenance costs of $20m/year and has a life of 50 years. That's (at least) $2B you need to recover in capital costs from your "free" energy.

I honestly think burning a fuel of some sort will be here for a long, long time. I don't want to discount the rising importance of wind and solar. I do believe that with the ever decreasing costs these will become even more important, even critical, in the future. They simply won't completely replace some kind of combusted fuel.

Now what that fuel economy looks like is an unknown. There is a course a limit in what we can dig up out of the ground and to continue using it or something akin to it we need to solve the carbon problem. So what we really need is:

1. Some method of sequestering atmospheric carbon at scale; and

2. Some method of storing excess renewable energy.

There are multiple solutions to (2), the most common of which today seems to be using batteries. Current battery technology has come a long way but it has a lot of disadvantages, not the least of which is its current reliance on something that itself is limited (lithium). Plus obtaining all the materials for batteries seems to be highly environmentally destructive.

It's unclear to me that without some major innovation batteries will only ever be a niche technology for the likes of a few Teslas and airplanes. Now I'm not saying that innovation won't happen. I'm simply saying current battery tech isn't there yet.

Another potential solution for (2) is to use energy to construct a fuel that can be transported and combusted eg [1].

Synthetic hydrocarbons have a lot of advantages. Convenience, relatively simple tech and high energy density (important for weight). Large scale carbon sequestration remains a huge sticking point however. Plus actual fossil fuels remain cheaper than synthetics but this will eventually change either because fossil fuels become much rarer or renewable energy costs get sufficiently low.

[1]: https://www.quora.com/How-do-I-get-gasoline-from-wind-power

Re: Fusion reactors: Not what they’re cracked up to be

#83

There's nothing quite like trying to get fusion to work for a while to make you appreciate how awesome fission technology is. If we applied even half the cleverness needed for fusion to making better fission technology, we'd probably be way better off. ...and then there's solar. Why even bother with producing the energy, just capture it with a very thin solid state device! Just need to automate the planting of solar…

More power to desert people! What a great idea!

Re: Fusion reactors: Not what they’re cracked up to be

#84
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where does the author note that? "Tritium has a half life of 12.3 years which means it will be dangerous for at least 120 years, since the hazardous life for a radionuclide is ten to twenty times longer than its half-life"¹ If you come in contact with it during that time you will get cancer. [1] https://www.nirs.org/wp-content/uploads/factsheets/tritiumba...

If tritium is released in its atomic form, it is only a hyper-local threat, both geographically and temporally. I wasn't able to confirm this with a quick Google, but I imagine tritium will just want to go up, up, up as fast as it can, where it will never bother anybody again. (It's heavier than hydrogen but still lighter per-atom than helium, which has the same behavior). It doesn't have the problem fission fuels ha…

http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-11-100

(I live a couple of hours downstream from Watts Bar.)

Re: Fusion reactors: Not what they’re cracked up to be

#85
post #6
post #2

Mmmh, some of the claims in that article are debunked in this neat video from MIT (though over 1h long): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0KuAx1COEk

Which claims does it refute? I'm not able to watch the video, but I'm interested.

E.g. the nuclear waste problem: With the right shielding you'll get to radioactive waste that is much easier to handle and usually decaying enough in a 60 year time span. As opposed to the millennia from fission products. So yeah it is a problem, but manageable.

Or the parasitic power consumption problem. Yes, fusion reactors require a lot of energy to power that magnetic field, the cooling for the magnets, but the whole point of fusion research is to get an order of magnitude out of the energy put in, i.e. a G-factor which is > 1. Right now we don't have a fusion reactor that manages G >1, but Iter has the potential to operate around G = 5, and before long some smart kid will figure out a design that gives you G > 10.

The tritium breeding problem. There are indeed some smart solutions like a FLiBe salt blanket fill. Which also is great at absorbing the neutron "waste".

The nuclear proliferation problem. This is more of a theoretical problem, as there are way easier pathways to a bomb. E.g. the thorium fuel cycle to breed a U-233 based bomb is doable even with tech from the 1960'ies.

Re: Fusion reactors: Not what they’re cracked up to be

#86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry I worded that sentence poorly. Let's assume two scenarios: a) We create a 200 square mile solar field in the Sahara, from which cables run to Europe to supply electricity. To take this plant out, one just cuts the cables. There, you just plunged Europe into darkness. b) We create a 20x 10 square mile solar fields in the Sahara, all dispersed over a very large area. Well, this is an engineering and construction…

I'm surprised to see this kind of simplistic reductionist thinking on HN. "Just cut the cables" isn't trivial. Have you ever seen a high voltage tower? Not only are they not accessible without professional gear, it's also going to require even more expensive gear to cut multiple inch thick conductors. In all likelihood he power to Europe will be transmitted via multiple undersea cables, the effort of disrupting which…

I'm not 100% positive that this is the right video, but I think it is. As part of the "overthrow a nation" plan, he talks specifically about destroying critical infrastructure, like electricity.

The solution for taking out high voltage powerlines? A pair of Skilsaws hanging under a quadcopter. Drop down onto it and... something bad's going to happen!

edit: I also missed the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1lhGqNCZlA

edit 2: I scrolled around a bit and it's near the 30 minute mark.

Re: Fusion reactors: Not what they’re cracked up to be

#87
post #22
post #13

When a reporter calls their credibility into question in the second sentence, there's a problem. "they would produce vast amounts of energy with little radioactive waste, forming little or no plutonium byproducts that could be used for nuclear weapons." Fusion products are helium, neutrons, and neutrinos. Stars eventually fuse products up to iron. To generate plutonium requires a supernova...

The 'reporter' "was a principal research physicist at the Princeton Plasma Physics Lab until 1999. For 25 years he worked in areas of plasma physics and neutron production related to fusion energy research and development. He holds a PhD in astrophysical sciences from Princeton University." Do you think it's perhaps possible that the author knows what he's talking about? If you'd continued reading after that second s…

I don't understand why the OP considers sneaky Pu239 production a proliferation problem, but doesn't consider unaccounted for tritium in the fuel cycle and the general availability of Li6 to bread more tritium a proliferation problem. Anyone?

Re: Fusion reactors: Not what they’re cracked up to be

#88

There's nothing quite like trying to get fusion to work for a while to make you appreciate how awesome fission technology is. If we applied even half the cleverness needed for fusion to making better fission technology, we'd probably be way better off. ...and then there's solar. Why even bother with producing the energy, just capture it with a very thin solid state device! Just need to automate the planting of solar…

How exactly do you propose to get that electricity from the desert to say Finland? Furthermore, you need to plaster a vast area in the desert with solar plants, which brings along all sorts of concentrated security risks. The alternative is to have many smaller plants dispersed, which results in a big loss of efficiency. I'm all for clean energy, but you seem to be handwaving away pretty huge issues as "thought exerc…

Finland net imports of electricity in 2009 were 15%, so about the same as it is today. They have a lot of hydro power and little reason to stop using it. Countries are ok with risking 15% of their generation from external sources because you can get by on 85% supply with minimal disruptions and you can ramp up supply in the short term.

Solar in the Sahara is an example, but countries already spend a few percent of GDP on safety, being less efficient but more independent is generally an excepted trade-off. Further, Sahara solar > desalination > farming is probably a better use of that space vs transmitting it.

Re: Fusion reactors: Not what they’re cracked up to be

#89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry I worded that sentence poorly. Let's assume two scenarios: a) We create a 200 square mile solar field in the Sahara, from which cables run to Europe to supply electricity. To take this plant out, one just cuts the cables. There, you just plunged Europe into darkness. b) We create a 20x 10 square mile solar fields in the Sahara, all dispersed over a very large area. Well, this is an engineering and construction…

I'm surprised to see this kind of simplistic reductionist thinking on HN. "Just cut the cables" isn't trivial. Have you ever seen a high voltage tower? Not only are they not accessible without professional gear, it's also going to require even more expensive gear to cut multiple inch thick conductors. In all likelihood he power to Europe will be transmitted via multiple undersea cables, the effort of disrupting which…

> the effort of disrupting which would be unavailable to all but state agents

It's a good thing then that there is a long history of all state agents in northern Africa maintaining friendly and stable relations with European governments.

(Yes, said Europeans also carry a great deal of responsibility for this situation, but that doesn't make the situation any more tractable).

Re: Fusion reactors: Not what they’re cracked up to be

#90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm surprised to see this kind of simplistic reductionist thinking on HN. "Just cut the cables" isn't trivial. Have you ever seen a high voltage tower? Not only are they not accessible without professional gear, it's also going to require even more expensive gear to cut multiple inch thick conductors. In all likelihood he power to Europe will be transmitted via multiple undersea cables, the effort of disrupting which…

I'm not 100% positive that this is the right video, but I think it is. As part of the "overthrow a nation" plan, he talks specifically about destroying critical infrastructure, like electricity. The solution for taking out high voltage powerlines? A pair of Skilsaws hanging under a quadcopter. Drop down onto it and... something bad's going to happen! edit: I also missed the link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1lhG…

Damage that takes a few hours to fix is not going to destabilize a country. If you can scale it to keep up 24/7 disruption you already have an army and far more useful approaches like destroying ports.
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