Earlier quoted context omitted.
Heck. I have ladders/weedwhackers/etc. and other home/yard-maintenance and upkeep devices that probably sit idle for 99.9% of the time.
If your ladder could deliver itself to someone for $10/hr. (or a ladder could be delivered to you on demand) I suspect we'd have a lot less ladders.
Alphabet's Self-Driving Cars to Get Their First Real Riders
371–380 of 411 posts
Re: Alphabet's Self-Driving Cars to Get Their First Real Riders
#372How will self-driving cars affect society? Trying to wrap my head around the bigger picture.
Transportation in general will become much cheaper. Because driverless cars will get into far fewer accidents than humans the cost of insuring them will be a fraction of what it costs to insure a human driver today. And when transportation gets cheaper basically every product that needs to be moved gets cheaper (assuming the companies using this technology don't just pocket the savings). Also, basically drivers of al…
The average US driver files a collision claim once every 18 years. I'd like to know the distribution on that one, but anyway, it doesn't seem like there is a reason to believe this.
Re: Alphabet's Self-Driving Cars to Get Their First Real Riders
#373Earlier quoted context omitted.
Surely your employer would state or demonstrate their cars as being capable of a long-distance trip if they were technically capable of doing so. Bear in mind, with this announcement, they aren't even committing to "it works in the Phoenix metro area". There's that "parts of" statement, that indicates that only parts of the area is mapped and hence the cars are only capable of operating in parts of the Phoenix metro…
You're making lots of evidence free statements due to your anti-Google bias that have little basis in reality. You seem to think that Google is using less machine learning than Tesla. Think about what you're saying, Google, the company which uses machine learning for everything, whose long demonstrated the ability to read street signs and crowdsourced massive ML data on it using Recaptcha, and which makes purpose-bui…
I am saying there is no evidence, or even a claim by Google, that their cars are capable of functioning outside a pre-mapped area. You have presented zero evidence of it whatsoever, and are trying to use Google's marketingspeak about how fancy their machine learning things are to insinuate I should assume Google's technology is more advanced than they can demonstrate.
You are highlighting particular capabilities of their collision avoidance on that mapped area to suggest they don't need a mapped area, which is also a non-supported claim. It is entirely plausible, and in fact, likely, that Google's visual mapping for collision avoidance is sophisticated, and yet still fully dependent on a map as a baseline.
Google's marketing claims continue to be extraordinary, and often untrustworthy, and you're going to have to do better than that.
Find me any, literally any, evidence that a Google self-driving car can operate outside the very tiny fenced in areas Google says they can operate. As far as I can tell, there is none, because you are making a claim that even Google itself is not making about it's cars.
Re: Alphabet's Self-Driving Cars to Get Their First Real Riders
#374Earlier quoted context omitted.
You're making lots of evidence free statements due to your anti-Google bias that have little basis in reality. You seem to think that Google is using less machine learning than Tesla. Think about what you're saying, Google, the company which uses machine learning for everything, whose long demonstrated the ability to read street signs and crowdsourced massive ML data on it using Recaptcha, and which makes purpose-bui…
Trying to accuse me of "anti-Google bias" is amusing when you are literally paid by Google, and have an inherent conflict of interest/bias of the highest order. Pot, meet kettle. Although, really, I'm not either because I've never been paid by any company with stakes in this discussion. I know you can do better than ad hominem. I am saying there is no evidence, or even a claim by Google, that their cars are capable o…
What does it mean "cars are capable of functioning "? What does "Functioning" mean? Tesla Autopilot don't function off highways, and barely function on highways. So you think someone should get credit for functioning at scale everywhere, if they ship a consumer product with no restrictions, but it fails badly when people actually try it? You're comparing a broken product to one that purportedly works, but you think it's smoke and mirrors?
I love Tesla cars and I plan to buy a P90D, but in my opinion, their whole self driving program is incredibly reckless. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQxIhMBKblY) Waymo's approach is careful, over engineered, defense-in-depth. Slow by Silicon Valley standards, but you're dealing with public safety. Yes, they use maps as one of their sources of truth, they'd be reckless not to, but they also use LIDAR and vision systems with machine learning, because of course, no map can be real time.
Tesla is trying to sell an upgraded lane-keeping system as a self driving system. Maybe you should be more concerned about that.
I can only say what is public already, but you can look at the disengagements data to see Waymo cars are three orders of magnitude better than their competitors.
Re: Alphabet's Self-Driving Cars to Get Their First Real Riders
#375Earlier quoted context omitted.
Trying to accuse me of "anti-Google bias" is amusing when you are literally paid by Google, and have an inherent conflict of interest/bias of the highest order. Pot, meet kettle. Although, really, I'm not either because I've never been paid by any company with stakes in this discussion. I know you can do better than ad hominem. I am saying there is no evidence, or even a claim by Google, that their cars are capable o…
Google's marketing claims are extraordinary by running careful, incremental, roll out trials? What company is shipping 'Autopilot' software to drivers today that has actually killed someone, doesn't function in less than perfect highway conditions, whose own fine print says basically not to use it as its name implies, and has numerous calls for it to be disabled? What does it mean "cars are capable of functioning "?…
If the lane lines are hard to read in a part of Phoenix, Google can ask for them to be repainted before approving the cars for that area but everyone else just has to assume bad lane lines are something they'll contend with.
Is there an NDA these early riders will have to sign?
Do they have to provide a list of destinations ahead of time?
I feel this announcement makes it seem like these cars are ready for public use. But I don't see the evidence to suggest they really are. And as you indicate, Googlers aren't talking.
Re: Alphabet's Self-Driving Cars to Get Their First Real Riders
#376Am I the only one feeling the press + big tech narrative of "driverless vehicles = safety" is way ahead of itself? OK, "driver error is blamed for 94% of crashes", but what is the validation strategy to show where driverless cars can quantifiably improve? In 2016, Philip Koopman of CMU discusses that there are non-trivial engineering challenges of achieving safety in NHTSA Level 4 vehicle automation: https://users.ec…
http://www.thedrive.com/tech/9548/the-biggest-opportunity-ev...
There is a successful precedent in aviation. The latest fly-by-wire flight control systems treat the pilot's inputs as merely suggestions and will modify them as necessary to prevent departure from controlled flight, midair collisions, flight into terrain, and overstressing the airframe.
Re: Alphabet's Self-Driving Cars to Get Their First Real Riders
#377Earlier quoted context omitted.
That depends on the nature of the collisions. Are those 4 fatal accidents vs 51 fender benders? The devil is in the details, not the executive summary.
For purposes of the thought experiment, assume the distribution of severity is roughly the same between the two.
All this would do is make me question the nature of the data collected. For instance, is that 50 million miles of diverse roads and weather conditions or the same mile over and over again on a sunny day? Or were the human-driven cars equipped with contemporary collision-avoidance equipment or a motley representative assortment of cars from the past half-century?
What would sway me is auto insurers offering a discount for relying on self-driving car technology. I can wait patiently for that to happen.
Re: Alphabet's Self-Driving Cars to Get Their First Real Riders
#378Earlier quoted context omitted.
It doesn't matter. As we have learned with the John Deere tractor situation is that we will lose even more control. Think buying and maintaining a car is expensive now? Wait until you literally can't drive it without paying for a software update. I'm sorry, but I don't see anything cool in this other than a quick nap sometimes on a long road trip. Everything else quickly approaches pain in the ass levels to the point…
So your argument went from "its economically infeasible" to "I don't like it!"?
If ridesharing was awesome, we would see it now with luxury cars. We don't because it is stupid and will not reduce the price of the car dramatically enough to outweigh the negatives.
Re: Alphabet's Self-Driving Cars to Get Their First Real Riders
#379Earlier quoted context omitted.
You haven't heard the allegations that Uber approached Levandowski while still at Google to start Otto so Uber could buy them later?
I'm still not sure how that would involve uber in selling secrets; still sounds like buying to me.
Another tact: Otto is accused of being involved in selling secrets. Uber bought Otto. Otto is now Uber. Therefore, Uber is accused of being involved in selling secrets.
Re: Alphabet's Self-Driving Cars to Get Their First Real Riders
#380Earlier quoted context omitted.
Who says you need to be the rider, and not the car owner? You could be making that $10 a ride renting your Toyota Highlander to other suburbanites when your kid's sports aren't in season? Or when you're on vacation, or at work for an 8 hour chunk? To say nothing of the convenience of a car that can drop off/pick up the little one from soccer practice on its own if you have a scheduling conflict.
This type of naive suggestion totally ignores the way that most middle-class American families actually use their cars not just as transportation but for storage and as a mobile base of operations. Please explain how I'm supposed to let others use my car as a short-term rental during the day while it's full of child seats, snacks, extra clothes, sports equipment, etc. Plus I don't want random people coughing / eating…
a.) Snacks and supplies in trunk - lockable containers inside. All could be accessible via app/key fob only.
b.) Who says the suburbanite your renting to won't want to use a car seat?
c.) Camera, ID, cleaning deposits, car self-drives to detailer on your lunch break.
$1,000 a month is a heck of a carrot to keep a car clean - even if that's not for you is your worldview really so small that you cannot imagine it being for someone not all that dissimilar from you?