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Gett in advanced talks to buy Juno for $250M as Uber rivals consolidate

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Re: Gett in advanced talks to buy Juno for $250M as Uber rivals consolidate

#21
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm skeptical about the business model in general, not related to any recent scandal. The leaked financials[1] seem to indicate it's a losing proposition until self driving cars are relatively ubiquitous. So whenever it does become financially viable, there's a pretty long payback cycle. And no obvious iron clad moat that keeps competitors at bay...ones that aren't under pressure to pay back investors for years of su…

Sounds good. Revenues growing exponentially from 2012-2015. The revenues in 2015 were even higher than the predictions done 2 years earlier (that were actually planning for a steep exponential). At this rate of growth. They should be making 1-2 billion in revenues per quarter now. Wish we had a recent leaked document. That's a solid multi billion dollars business. Worse case scenario if they run out of subsidies: Sto…

Easily back to a profitable business that is already in a hole how big?

Anyone can drive big revenue by taking huge piles of investor cash and selling things below margin. That isn't magic. If that buys market share with a moat, it may make sense. If not, it's unwise.

Re: Gett in advanced talks to buy Juno for $250M as Uber rivals consolidate

#22
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds good. Revenues growing exponentially from 2012-2015. The revenues in 2015 were even higher than the predictions done 2 years earlier (that were actually planning for a steep exponential). At this rate of growth. They should be making 1-2 billion in revenues per quarter now. Wish we had a recent leaked document. That's a solid multi billion dollars business. Worse case scenario if they run out of subsidies: Sto…

Easily back to a profitable business that is already in a hole how big? Anyone can drive big revenue by taking huge piles of investor cash and selling things below margin. That isn't magic. If that buys market share with a moat, it may make sense. If not, it's unwise.

The size of the hole is irrelevant.

What matters it the size of the shovel they are using (their expenses and subsidies) and the force of the wind that's refilling the hole with nearby dust (the customer revenues).

They can reduce their shovel without impacting the wind too much.

Re: Gett in advanced talks to buy Juno for $250M as Uber rivals consolidate

#23
post #18

Am I the only one that was wondering why the dialup ISP Juno.com was considered a rival to Uber? Guess it's a different Juno.. TIL Juno.com still offers dial-up for $15.95/mo. Gone are the days of free dial-up with obnoxious banner ads.

Heh. I used their free service on occasion for a few years during the period when it was no longer worth it for me to pay for monthly dial-up but broadband wasn't always available when traveling. (And pre-mobile data.)

Re: Gett in advanced talks to buy Juno for $250M as Uber rivals consolidate

#24

Instead of burning cash by subsidizing travels, Uber could have just bought some competitors but still... The only chance Uber has is becoming a monopoly, and I don't see how they can achieve it.

Why do they need to be a monopoly to succeed? I personally dislike Uber based on all the latest PR but what if they actually achieve a self driving car? If so, this would change the business entirely because no more contractor's to pay. Do you think if one company has self driving cars and the rest don't this is a competitive advantage? Perhaps they license the self driving car software to other companies which also…

Self-driving is so far out as a door-to-door taxi service as to be utterly irrelevant to Uber's business model.

Re: Gett in advanced talks to buy Juno for $250M as Uber rivals consolidate

#25
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Easily back to a profitable business that is already in a hole how big? Anyone can drive big revenue by taking huge piles of investor cash and selling things below margin. That isn't magic. If that buys market share with a moat, it may make sense. If not, it's unwise.

The size of the hole is irrelevant. What matters it the size of the shovel they are using (their expenses and subsidies) and the force of the wind that's refilling the hole with nearby dust (the customer revenues). They can reduce their shovel without impacting the wind too much.

Amazon was fine throwing money into making a moat, and they have a tangible one.

I don't see what Uber's moat is once self driving cars are common. It seems they will be fighting off competition (car companies, Waymo, etc) that didn't have to spend money on lobbying, lawsuits, subsidies, and so forth.

Re: Gett in advanced talks to buy Juno for $250M as Uber rivals consolidate

#26
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The size of the hole is irrelevant. What matters it the size of the shovel they are using (their expenses and subsidies) and the force of the wind that's refilling the hole with nearby dust (the customer revenues). They can reduce their shovel without impacting the wind too much.

Amazon was fine throwing money into making a moat, and they have a tangible one. I don't see what Uber's moat is once self driving cars are common. It seems they will be fighting off competition (car companies, Waymo, etc) that didn't have to spend money on lobbying, lawsuits, subsidies, and so forth.

That's your problem there! :D

Self driving cars are just hype that won't be any significant for another decade. You should forget about self driving cars.

What Uber has right now is real, a massive customer base and network of taxi, that is bringing billions of dollars. They could totally focus on that and have a strong and sustainable business.

Re: Gett in advanced talks to buy Juno for $250M as Uber rivals consolidate

#27
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very few people on HN actually care about the Uber scandals. Almost no one has changed their daily behavior. They all still use Uber. It's exactly how Trump won the US election. A small group of people spread the idea Uber is doing poorly when in reality they're not.

I'm skeptical about the business model in general, not related to any recent scandal. The leaked financials[1] seem to indicate it's a losing proposition until self driving cars are relatively ubiquitous. So whenever it does become financially viable, there's a pretty long payback cycle. And no obvious iron clad moat that keeps competitors at bay...ones that aren't under pressure to pay back investors for years of su…

If you don't think self-driving vehicles face an enormous uphill regulation battle, you are sorely, sorely mistaken! Politics haven't even entered the self-driving game yet. They will and every union associated with driving is going to freak the fuck out. It will be a bloody political mess.

Re: Gett in advanced talks to buy Juno for $250M as Uber rivals consolidate

#28
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Amazon was fine throwing money into making a moat, and they have a tangible one. I don't see what Uber's moat is once self driving cars are common. It seems they will be fighting off competition (car companies, Waymo, etc) that didn't have to spend money on lobbying, lawsuits, subsidies, and so forth.

That's your problem there! :D Self driving cars are just hype that won't be any significant for another decade. You should forget about self driving cars. What Uber has right now is real, a massive customer base and network of taxi, that is bringing billions of dollars. They could totally focus on that and have a strong and sustainable business.

Sans self driving cars, Uber loses cash. You seem to think shedding employees is enough to fix that. Closing a $2 to $3bn/yr loss with just layoffs seems hard. Eliminating subsidies puts competitors on a level playing field. I can sell dollar bills for 90 cents and be incredibly popular too. I just don't have the panache to sell that plan to Saudis.

Re: Gett in advanced talks to buy Juno for $250M as Uber rivals consolidate

#29
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do they need to be a monopoly to succeed? I personally dislike Uber based on all the latest PR but what if they actually achieve a self driving car? If so, this would change the business entirely because no more contractor's to pay. Do you think if one company has self driving cars and the rest don't this is a competitive advantage? Perhaps they license the self driving car software to other companies which also…

Self-driving is so far out as a door-to-door taxi service as to be utterly irrelevant to Uber's business model.

I'm not sure it's 'so far out' Waymo is running such a service in Phoenix: https://techcrunch.com/2017/04/25/waymo-begins-first-public-...

Re: Gett in advanced talks to buy Juno for $250M as Uber rivals consolidate

#30
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm skeptical about the business model in general, not related to any recent scandal. The leaked financials[1] seem to indicate it's a losing proposition until self driving cars are relatively ubiquitous. So whenever it does become financially viable, there's a pretty long payback cycle. And no obvious iron clad moat that keeps competitors at bay...ones that aren't under pressure to pay back investors for years of su…

If you don't think self-driving vehicles face an enormous uphill regulation battle, you are sorely, sorely mistaken! Politics haven't even entered the self-driving game yet. They will and every union associated with driving is going to freak the fuck out. It will be a bloody political mess.

I think you may be misreading me. I'm not saying they are imminent. I am saying Uber's business model sucks without the lower costs they deliver.

Anything that delays them means Uber burns more cash subsidizing cheap prices to hold back competition.

And once they do arrive, competitors can enter the market with lower costs.

Or, maybe Uber isn't losing as much as it seems? (Estimates are $2+bn/yr) Or there is some moat that protects them? I just don't get it.

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