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Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan

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Re: Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan

#11

Post by panglott »

pm90 wrote: post #4

This is a pretty reasoned article. One thing I have never understood: why can't China and the US join forces and militarily overrun DPRK? I know they fought each other in the Korean war, but the world has changed so drastically since then. From what I've read so far, DPRK is a source of dangerous instability for everyone involved. Wouldn't having a more stable regime on the Korean peninsula serve the interests of all…

My understanding is that China has a very different relationship with North Korea and a very different perspective on foriegn policy. China tends to emphasize North Korea's stance as a reaction to US/South Korean provocations. China also has a significant population of Koreans and significant trade with North Korea, and fears the destabilizing effects of North Korean collapse more than the destabilizing effects of North Korean actions. Finally, China's policy is that countries should not peer to closely into the domestic affairs of foreign countries.

North Korea's strategy is to deter foreign aggression against itself. As this article reveals, it has been an effective strategy, because the costs of war on the Korean peninsula are so huge despite the North's technological deficit.

Re: Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan

#12

Post by chx »

pm90 wrote: post #4

This is a pretty reasoned article. One thing I have never understood: why can't China and the US join forces and militarily overrun DPRK? I know they fought each other in the Korean war, but the world has changed so drastically since then. From what I've read so far, DPRK is a source of dangerous instability for everyone involved. Wouldn't having a more stable regime on the Korean peninsula serve the interests of all…

The problem is, if you topple the Kim regime, a unification with South Korea is imminent and bringing North Korea up to the development level of South Korea is would cost trillions of dollars. It might even trigger a worldwide economic recession as the capital markets completely dry up as all investment floods to Korea.

Re: Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan

#13

Post by jgable »

A bit OT: does anyone have recommendations for textbooks or other resources that teach basic military strategy and tactics? Whenever any military discussion comes up that even touches technical aspects, I feel pretty lost. Similar to how with certain sports, I just can't see the movement patterns or how the plays develop.

Re: Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan

#14

Post by charles-salvia »

The assessment predicts: "Tens or hundreds of thousands could become casualties" ... in the event of an all-out DRPK/(US+ROK) conflict.

One factor to consider here is what happens if no conflict occurs? In that case, there are ... still likely tens of thousands of civilian deaths happening as the status quo in North Korean labor camps[1]. Allowing the regime to continue to exist also has a major cost in human lives. I'm not saying war is clearly a superior option - I'm saying this whole situation is mostly losses.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisons_in_North_Korea

Re: Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan

#15

Post by Animats »

The key thing here is the geography. Seoul is only 20 miles from the border with North Korea. It's within artillery range, and North Korea has the necessary artillery. If there's a war, Seoul gets clobbered in the first minutes.

Few countries have their capital that close to a hostile border. Syria does. Look where Damascus is.

Re: Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan

#16

Post by ng12 »

sytelus wrote: post #9

The article surprisingly leaves out Russia altogether. In essence, Russia is the "father" of DPRK and its hard to think that it would sit around quite when DPRK is losing. Another big factor is that DPRK would have no qualms in attacking civilian population in Seoul using missiles and artillery and in fact that's what they would focus on in order to terrorize and put RPK+US on defensive. A single bomb can do much mor…

Well the USSR was the father of North Korea -- and the two had a falling out in the 1980's. North Korea was much closer to China for most of it's history.

Re: Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan

#17

Post by panglott »

"The final element in the DPRK plan is an extensive deep battle across the entire South Korean depth using some one hundred thousand special operations forces (SOF). An interesting feature of this war is that since both sides look and speak more or less alike, covert insertion and operation is easier for each side—but especially so for North Korean agents who may move freely within South Korea’s open society. ... As with artillery strikes, fighting by SOF on objectives in Seoul will be aimed at heightening panic and demoralizing political leadership, and will be exploited by DPRK information warfare agencies to give the impression that the front has already reached the ROK capital."

This is an interesting point: every major terrorist attack of the Twitter age sees wild rumors flying. An actual DPRK invasion combined with cyberwarfare could yield a campaign of information warfare like nothing we've seen before.

Re: Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan

#18

Post by monort »

pm90 wrote: post #4

This is a pretty reasoned article. One thing I have never understood: why can't China and the US join forces and militarily overrun DPRK? I know they fought each other in the Korean war, but the world has changed so drastically since then. From what I've read so far, DPRK is a source of dangerous instability for everyone involved. Wouldn't having a more stable regime on the Korean peninsula serve the interests of all…

Seoul, where almost half of population of South Korea lives, is just 40 km from the border and North Korea have a long range artillery. The war is impossible unless you are good with hundreds of thousands civilian casualties.

Re: Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan

#19

Post by pdelbarba »

jgable wrote: post #13

A bit OT: does anyone have recommendations for textbooks or other resources that teach basic military strategy and tactics? Whenever any military discussion comes up that even touches technical aspects, I feel pretty lost. Similar to how with certain sports, I just can't see the movement patterns or how the plays develop.

Tom Clancy's old books (not the garbage that used his name recently). Start with Red Storm Rising and then go through the Jack Ryan series beginning with The Hunt For Red October. You'll find his political views slightly odd if you're younger, but his military knowledge is unparalleled.

Edit: for the HN crowd especially, his detailed descriptions of weapon systems and politics are pretty amazing. You can argue he predicted the Russian annexation of Crimea among other things.

Re: Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan

#20

Post by sytelus »

ng12 wrote: post #16
sytelus wrote: post #9

The article surprisingly leaves out Russia altogether. In essence, Russia is the "father" of DPRK and its hard to think that it would sit around quite when DPRK is losing. Another big factor is that DPRK would have no qualms in attacking civilian population in Seoul using missiles and artillery and in fact that's what they would focus on in order to terrorize and put RPK+US on defensive. A single bomb can do much mor…

Well the USSR was the father of North Korea -- and the two had a falling out in the 1980's. North Korea was much closer to China for most of it's history.

Russia is the more friendly country than China according to DPRK's own assessment. Russia has very significant vested economic and political interests in DPRK remaining in place. China and Russia are the two major countries that do not technically participate in sanctions against DPRK (although they may agree on "paper") and which is why DPRK is able to survive at all. It would be hard to think of Russia just sitting quite when US is taking over one of the major sized country with tons of natural resources right on its border.

See http://thediplomat.com/2017/02/russias-love-affair-with-nort...

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