Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan
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Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan
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Re: Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan
#2It's an interesting read if you're into the nuts and bolts of modern warfare. The key assumption is that the DPRK actually has any ambition of attacking the ROK though. They'll scream and carry on until they get their sanctions lifted and, in their minds, come out of the whole thing a nuclear power.
Now those running tomorrow's senate briefing on the other hand...
Edit: it's also worth noting that they're playing a somewhat "smart" long game here. They won't likely do much until they're confident that they can convince the world they have ICBM capabilities. At that point, they no longer have to just menace the ROK or Japan but can realistically extort anyone they want.
Re: Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan
#3This leaves out some issues such as likely targeting of Japan by DPRK, but otherwise a clear-headed analysis of the dark and sobering reality there.
Re: Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan
#4This is a pretty reasoned article. One thing I have never understood: why can't China and the US join forces and militarily overrun DPRK? I know they fought each other in the Korean war, but the world has changed so drastically since then. From what I've read so far, DPRK is a source of dangerous instability for everyone involved. Wouldn't having a more stable regime on the Korean peninsula serve the interests of all neighboring countries?
Re: Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan
#5This is a pretty reasoned article. One thing I have never understood: why can't China and the US join forces and militarily overrun DPRK? I know they fought each other in the Korean war, but the world has changed so drastically since then. From what I've read so far, DPRK is a source of dangerous instability for everyone involved. Wouldn't having a more stable regime on the Korean peninsula serve the interests of all…
China does not want the US building military bases a few miles south of their border. Additionally, in the event of a conflict with the US directly, the DPRK will almost certainly seize the opportunity to cause havoc on the peninsula and therefore divert US/NATO resources away from a Chinese/US conflict.
One could argue that the US wouldn't need to maintain bases on the peninsula after the fall of the DPRK, but with the situation in the South China Sea, we'd be stupid not to and even if we agreed with China that we wouldn't, they don't have a lot of reason to trust we'd hold up our end of the bargain given our history.
Re: Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan
#6This is a pretty reasoned article. One thing I have never understood: why can't China and the US join forces and militarily overrun DPRK? I know they fought each other in the Korean war, but the world has changed so drastically since then. From what I've read so far, DPRK is a source of dangerous instability for everyone involved. Wouldn't having a more stable regime on the Korean peninsula serve the interests of all…
DPRK is a buffer state for China.
The United States lost its mind when communism established a foothold in Cuba. Russia did likewise when Ukraine began aligning towards NATO.
China would prefer to have a stable regime in DPRK - but it would also prefer to not have US military bases on the other side of the Yalu river. The last time that happened, the two countries went to war.
Also, arguably, the DPRK regime is extremely 'stable'. The same royal family has ruled it for what, seven decades, now?
Re: Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan
#7This is a pretty reasoned article. One thing I have never understood: why can't China and the US join forces and militarily overrun DPRK? I know they fought each other in the Korean war, but the world has changed so drastically since then. From what I've read so far, DPRK is a source of dangerous instability for everyone involved. Wouldn't having a more stable regime on the Korean peninsula serve the interests of all…
Will US withdraw troops from a unified Korea or will troops be stationed on the Chinese border?
Re: Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan
#8This is a pretty reasoned article. One thing I have never understood: why can't China and the US join forces and militarily overrun DPRK? I know they fought each other in the Korean war, but the world has changed so drastically since then. From what I've read so far, DPRK is a source of dangerous instability for everyone involved. Wouldn't having a more stable regime on the Korean peninsula serve the interests of all…
China certainly doesn't want a unified Korea, for economic and military reasons.
Re: Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan
#9The article surprisingly leaves out Russia altogether. In essence, Russia is the "father" of DPRK and its hard to think that it would sit around quite when DPRK is losing.
Another big factor is that DPRK would have no qualms in attacking civilian population in Seoul using missiles and artillery and in fact that's what they would focus on in order to terrorize and put RPK+US on defensive. A single bomb can do much more damage in Seoul then in Pyongyang. Air supremacy is irrelevant more or less as the distances are small and war on ground would be much more deciding factor. They can probably use chemical weapon warheads as well. All these things RPK+US won't be at liberty to do to DPRK but even if they could the DPRK would care less about its civilian population perishing en-mass.
Finally, atomic threat is very real one for RPK. If everything is going in the ditch, they can try to transport one single warhead in to a city using even ground vehicles (if missiles aren't working yet). On the other hand, using nukes on DPRK by US would have almost no impact on its leaders mindset.
Re: Thunder Run to Seoul: Assessing North Korea’s War Plan
#10This is a pretty reasoned article. One thing I have never understood: why can't China and the US join forces and militarily overrun DPRK? I know they fought each other in the Korean war, but the world has changed so drastically since then. From what I've read so far, DPRK is a source of dangerous instability for everyone involved. Wouldn't having a more stable regime on the Korean peninsula serve the interests of all…
China-DPRK relations have only begun chilling over the last decade. China still has a lot of vested interest, both financial and political, in North Korea.