Alphabet's Self-Driving Cars to Get Their First Real Riders • Hacker News Board

Re: Alphabet's Self-Driving Cars to Get Their First Real Riders

#181

Post by scarmig » Tue, Apr 25, 2017, 5:10 PM UTC

notahacker wrote: post #175

scarmig wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If driverless cars work at all, they'll be substantially safer than human-driven ones. There's a strong moral case for banning human-driven cars on public roads if it'll save tens of thousands of lives. There's also a strong possibility of media-driven moral panics. Think of poor little Billy, hit by one of those irresponsible human drivers! Insurance companies will charge steep premiums to the risk takers who want t…

> If driverless cars work at all, they'll be substantially safer than human-driven ones. That sounds like a bold claim. I mean, the current standard of technology works to quite a good extent already, performing many aspects of driving with considerably greater acumen than humans and being able to operate for extended periods without human intervention. It's also fairly well documented that the number of situations i…

I agree with your evaluation of where things stand now. I disagree that you can really call that "working."

Working, for me, is when a typical consumer can buy it and use it day-to-day, on typical routes.

Re: Alphabet's Self-Driving Cars to Get Their First Real Riders

#182

Post by QuercusMax » Tue, Apr 25, 2017, 5:10 PM UTC

bhhaskin wrote: post #150

QuercusMax wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

bhhaskin's post said Uber was selling secrets, which is definitely NOT the case; I don't think I've heard anyone accusing them of that.

You haven't heard the allegations that Uber approached Levandowski while still at Google to start Otto so Uber could buy them later?

I'm still not sure how that would involve uber in selling secrets; still sounds like buying to me.

Re: Alphabet's Self-Driving Cars to Get Their First Real Riders

#183

Post by monkmartinez » Tue, Apr 25, 2017, 5:16 PM UTC

gfodor wrote: post #172

monkmartinez wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No you are not! HN seems to think the same way, and it is one of the worst cases of rose colored glasses I have ever witnessed. What about the cost? Who is going to be able to afford this? Also, what about people that rely on a vehicle for work? Retrofit $75K work trucks with another $75K in self driving gizmos? Find me a practical plumber, carpenter, A/C, lock smith, self-employed guy/gal that will sign up for that!…

Serious question: why is cost such a common argument made here against emerging tech? This argument seems to come up every time some new expensive technology is transitioning closer to consumers' hands, and the current price, which is obviously expected to go down at scale as it does for nearly all widely useful technology, is used as evidence nobody will be able to afford it. I've seen this argument made for technol…

Serious counter question; Why is nobody talking about cost? Cars are very expensive... is self-driving tech going to increase or decrease the cost of a vehicle? Do people generally want more freedom or less freedom choice?

Why does everyone assume the cost will decrease with scale? How many people can afford a Tesla right now? Let alone a fully autonomous car?

If flying were more affordable and less strict more people would own their own plane. It isn't and they don't. I see self-driving cars a lot like airplanes and John Deere tractors. That is, expensive proprietary tech that you have no control over. No thank you.

Why does everyone assume that most people want to share a vehicle?

Re: Alphabet's Self-Driving Cars to Get Their First Real Riders

#184

Post by treehau5_ » Tue, Apr 25, 2017, 5:17 PM UTC

wcummings wrote: post #126

evanpw wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't really like hearing about tax money going into these projects It might be better to think of it as an investment in public health rather than public transportation. Preventing the huge number of deaths caused by human drivers is more important than speeding up traffic.

There are lots of simpler ways to reduce traffic deaths that we could be funding.

for one, getting your license could be more than just a formality, and be more rigorous.

Re: Alphabet's Self-Driving Cars to Get Their First Real Riders

#185

Post by treehau5_ » Tue, Apr 25, 2017, 5:18 PM UTC

zeven7 wrote: post #178

wcummings wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are lots of simpler ways to reduce traffic deaths that we could be funding.

Options that Americans would choose to use?

if you take out alcohol and cell phones, you've reduced 70-80% of driving related fatalities with those two alone.

Re: Alphabet's Self-Driving Cars to Get Their First Real Riders

#186

Post by monkmartinez » Tue, Apr 25, 2017, 5:21 PM UTC

mattpavelle wrote: post #168

monkmartinez wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No you are not! HN seems to think the same way, and it is one of the worst cases of rose colored glasses I have ever witnessed. What about the cost? Who is going to be able to afford this? Also, what about people that rely on a vehicle for work? Retrofit $75K work trucks with another $75K in self driving gizmos? Find me a practical plumber, carpenter, A/C, lock smith, self-employed guy/gal that will sign up for that!…

I'm curious - where did you come up with your $75k cost for retrofitting existing vehicles?

Out of thin air. Why would it be cheaper? If you made the product, would you try to maximize profit or do it for SAFETY and the good of society?

Re: Alphabet's Self-Driving Cars to Get Their First Real Riders

#187

Post by jliptzin » Tue, Apr 25, 2017, 5:22 PM UTC

gfodor wrote: post #172

monkmartinez wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No you are not! HN seems to think the same way, and it is one of the worst cases of rose colored glasses I have ever witnessed. What about the cost? Who is going to be able to afford this? Also, what about people that rely on a vehicle for work? Retrofit $75K work trucks with another $75K in self driving gizmos? Find me a practical plumber, carpenter, A/C, lock smith, self-employed guy/gal that will sign up for that!…

Serious question: why is cost such a common argument made here against emerging tech? This argument seems to come up every time some new expensive technology is transitioning closer to consumers' hands, and the current price, which is obviously expected to go down at scale as it does for nearly all widely useful technology, is used as evidence nobody will be able to afford it. I've seen this argument made for technol…

It usually just comes down to the person being against something without really having any good argument for why they're against it, and that's the only thing they can think of.

Re: Alphabet's Self-Driving Cars to Get Their First Real Riders

#188

Post by stdgy » Tue, Apr 25, 2017, 5:24 PM UTC

monkmartinez wrote: post #183

gfodor wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Serious question: why is cost such a common argument made here against emerging tech? This argument seems to come up every time some new expensive technology is transitioning closer to consumers' hands, and the current price, which is obviously expected to go down at scale as it does for nearly all widely useful technology, is used as evidence nobody will be able to afford it. I've seen this argument made for technol…

Serious counter question; Why is nobody talking about cost? Cars are very expensive... is self-driving tech going to increase or decrease the cost of a vehicle? Do people generally want more freedom or less freedom choice? Why does everyone assume the cost will decrease with scale? How many people can afford a Tesla right now? Let alone a fully autonomous car? If flying were more affordable and less strict more peopl…

We've already seen price drops for the most expensive self-driving components. LIDARs, GPUs and storage have already fallen in cost, and the products aren't even on the market yet. There is every reason to believe these price drops will continue as more resources are put into scaling production and more companies enter the game of component design and production.

Re: Alphabet's Self-Driving Cars to Get Their First Real Riders

#189

Post by jliptzin » Tue, Apr 25, 2017, 5:25 PM UTC

monkmartinez wrote: post #183

gfodor wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Serious question: why is cost such a common argument made here against emerging tech? This argument seems to come up every time some new expensive technology is transitioning closer to consumers' hands, and the current price, which is obviously expected to go down at scale as it does for nearly all widely useful technology, is used as evidence nobody will be able to afford it. I've seen this argument made for technol…

Serious counter question; Why is nobody talking about cost? Cars are very expensive... is self-driving tech going to increase or decrease the cost of a vehicle? Do people generally want more freedom or less freedom choice? Why does everyone assume the cost will decrease with scale? How many people can afford a Tesla right now? Let alone a fully autonomous car? If flying were more affordable and less strict more peopl…

I'll bet you would have said the same thing about a $5,000 personal computer in the early 90s.

Re: Alphabet's Self-Driving Cars to Get Their First Real Riders

#190

Post by chejazi » Tue, Apr 25, 2017, 5:25 PM UTC

tyingq wrote: post #83

Is Waymo clear about what the end goal is? I can't tell if they plan to launch an Uber like service, or a direct-to-consumer lease type service, or just to be suppliers (whole vehicles, components like lidar, software) to companies like Uber. Or maybe they are leaving all of that undecided for now? I'm not sure this rider trial thing strongly signals any of them. You would want real world end-customer experiences reg…

> Is Waymo clear about what the end goal is?

I think they're clear:

"We're at the point when it's really important to find how real people, outside the Google environment, will use this technology," said John Krafcik, Waymo's chief executive officer. "Our goal is that they will use this for all their transportation needs."

It seems they are split on whether car ownership or ride-sharing will be more viable:

"Yes, self-driving technology makes sense for ride-sharing," said Krafcik, [...] "It also makes sense for personal car ownership." Transportation to and from transit hubs and logistics also made his list.