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We Just Breached the 410 PPM Threshold for CO2

scientificamerican.com

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Re: We Just Breached the 410 PPM Threshold for CO2

#111

Post by philipkglass »

pvnick wrote: post #102
chongli wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's say you leased an apartment in a large building, and after an inspection, numerous structural engineers said the building was in danger of collapse. Would you say "I don't know much about engineering, but I'm skeptical it's that bad", or would you demand the building management take steps to correct the issues? I like this analogy because it highlights the wrongheadedness of climate change denial. There is a ke…

> Stopping -- let alone reversing -- climate change is orders of magnitude more difficult than that. It involves the coordination of billions of people in a task that goes against their short-term, individual interest. It is also extremely dangerous. Most folks engaging in the climate change debate are implicitly doing a cost-benefit analysis of action vs non-action (action implying governmental action). Non-action m…

I really wish that "climate change denial" were a strawman -- that everyone accepted the basic mechanisms and effects of AGW and just argued over the best policy responses. Kind of like how American politicians all agree that North Korea has nuclear weapons and just differ in their policy responses. There's some of that in the political debate around AGW -- some people might e.g. promote nuclear power while others favor renewables and yet others favor technology-neutral and revenue-neutral carbon taxes. But there is a large minority who assert that the whole problem is a hoax, and that scientists can't even prove North Korea (AGW) exists in the first place. Some of those people are in high government positions.

Re: We Just Breached the 410 PPM Threshold for CO2

#112

Post by ceejayoz »

astrodust wrote: post #99
nwrk wrote: post #7

in plain english (from article): "Right now we’re on track to create a climate unseen in 50 million years by mid-century."

The states hit hardest by climate change are the ones cheerleading the burning of more fossil fuels. It's utterly bizarre.

They've been told by well-funded industry groups and politicians that all their woes are due to excessive regulation.

Re: We Just Breached the 410 PPM Threshold for CO2

#113

Post by mcbits »

JshWright wrote: post #37
shouldbworking wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see your point. To me it's like numerous engineers are warning me that the temperature of the building is going up quickly. When I ask any of them what to do they say we should stop producing heat. I ask whats going to happen when the building gets hotter quickly and get 10 different answers. Somebody tells me the building has been much hotter in the past, but this is the fastest its heated up before. I ask if it's…

I think you're stretching the analogy a bit too far there... We know that increasing atmospheric levels of CO2 will result in higher temperatures (the mechanism is well understood, and the IPCC models have done a good job of predicting that over the past couple decades), we also know rising temperatures will result in rising sea levels (again, we have empirically observed this happening at rates consistent with our u…

A more realistic analogy would be if the engineer said it's very likely that the California coast will be hit with an earthquake sometime in the next 100 years, but we have no idea when, which city, or how severe it will be. The safe thing to do would be to stop building things there altogether, but we could also try raising taxes and adding building regulations, making it impossibly expensive to live and work there. Surely that will stop people from building and moving there. 97% of engineers agree that earthquakes can be troubling.

Re: We Just Breached the 410 PPM Threshold for CO2

#114

Post by titojankowski »

acabal wrote: post #42

Does anyone have ideas on how a mid-career software developer can switch gears into the clean energy/climate change industry, to do something to help? I've come to think that climate change will be humanity's defining moment, and that we'll all be suffering greatly come mid-to-late-century. I want to do what I can to put my professional skills to use in helping. But I'm not sure where to even begin.

I published "A Biohacker's Guide to Climate Change" with you in mind: http://titojankowski.com/a-biohackers-guide-to-climate-chang... (First draft, would love to know what to add)

I was curious about climate change. To start I cut out all the noise. I looked for things I could see, touch, and plug into. Put those tech skills to work! There are plenty of opportunities, where you have the most value is bringing your expertise to bear. Email me: tito@impossiblelabs.io

Re: We Just Breached the 410 PPM Threshold for CO2

#115

Post by JshWright »

refurb wrote: post #103
JshWright wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're stretching the analogy a bit too far there... We know that increasing atmospheric levels of CO2 will result in higher temperatures (the mechanism is well understood, and the IPCC models have done a good job of predicting that over the past couple decades), we also know rising temperatures will result in rising sea levels (again, we have empirically observed this happening at rates consistent with our u…

the IPCC models have done a good job of predicting that over the past couple decades That's not my understanding. We had a warming "pause" from 2000 to 2010 (approximately). That was certainly not predicted. Then scientists went back to look for an explanation of the "pause". Ocean temperature data was then incoporated, other data adjusted and the "pause" was no more. I would characterize the climate modelling as con…

The total energy trapped in the system was accurately predicted. The amount of heat trapped in the ocean was not so accurately predicted. The part that matters was pretty spot on.

Even more importantly, the net effects (sea level rise, etc) were well within the predicted range.

Re: We Just Breached the 410 PPM Threshold for CO2

#116

Post by astrodust »

ceejayoz wrote: post #112
astrodust wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The states hit hardest by climate change are the ones cheerleading the burning of more fossil fuels. It's utterly bizarre.

They've been told by well-funded industry groups and politicians that all their woes are due to excessive regulation.

I hear a lot of grief about the EPA in places where coal is winding down, and yet it's not the EPA that's killing coal, it's rampant fracking that's shifted the industry to a whole new method of energy extraction. If there was lots of natural gas in West Virginia I bet I wouldn't hear a peep of complaint about the EPA.

If we can't smack some sense into people we're doomed as a species.

Re: We Just Breached the 410 PPM Threshold for CO2

#117

Post by joeyo »

shouldbworking wrote: post #4

I don't know much about climate science, but won't plants multiply and grow faster until we eventually hit a new equilibrium CO2 level? I guess the only danger is reaching thermal runaway before that happens? Then again, earth CO2 levels have been far higher in the past without signs that it killed off much life on Earth. Is rising CO2 that dangerous? Don't humans already have effective ways to reduce surface heating…

Even if the effect is negligible on CO2 levels (as I suspect it would be), I too am curious how much extra plant, algae, etc proliferation we should expect for each 10 ppm increase in CO2.

Re: We Just Breached the 410 PPM Threshold for CO2

#118

Post by nngrey »

acabal wrote: post #42

Does anyone have ideas on how a mid-career software developer can switch gears into the clean energy/climate change industry, to do something to help? I've come to think that climate change will be humanity's defining moment, and that we'll all be suffering greatly come mid-to-late-century. I want to do what I can to put my professional skills to use in helping. But I'm not sure where to even begin.

I got involved with this bi-partisan group. I would like to do even more, but this was a good start for me. http://citizensclimatelobby.org/

Re: We Just Breached the 410 PPM Threshold for CO2

#119

Post by refurb »

JshWright wrote: post #115
refurb wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the IPCC models have done a good job of predicting that over the past couple decades That's not my understanding. We had a warming "pause" from 2000 to 2010 (approximately). That was certainly not predicted. Then scientists went back to look for an explanation of the "pause". Ocean temperature data was then incoporated, other data adjusted and the "pause" was no more. I would characterize the climate modelling as con…

The total energy trapped in the system was accurately predicted. The amount of heat trapped in the ocean was not so accurately predicted. The part that matters was pretty spot on. Even more importantly, the net effects (sea level rise, etc) were well within the predicted range.

My understanding is that there is still a lot of disagreement about the adjusted data and whether it truly explains the pause.

Re: We Just Breached the 410 PPM Threshold for CO2

#120

Post by danjoc »

jes5199 wrote: post #92
theparanoid wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most plants use the C3 fixation cycle and are relatively CO2 limited. Maize uses the more efficient C4 fixation cycle.

this is interesting- where can I read more?

http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.com/2012/12/higher-co2-c...
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