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Power Outages Coincide in LA, New York, and San Francisco

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21–30 of 77 posts

Re: Power Outages Coincide in LA, New York, and San Francisco

#21
post #16
post #7

Crazy conspiracy theory: the Chinese and/or Russians have most likely already compromised our power grid and other infrastructure control systems and are waging covert economical war by disrupting important services.

Not likely because of Hanlon's razor: "don't attribute to malice that which can adequately be explained by stupidity". [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor

This takes precedence: "Once is an accident. Twice is a coincidence. Three times is an enemy action"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Moscow_rules

Re: Power Outages Coincide in LA, New York, and San Francisco

#22

It could be worse, from the Wikipedia page of notable power outages (yes there is such a page): "On 7 June (2016), about 100% of Kenya went without power for over 4 hours. The nationwide blackout was caused after a rogue monkey got into a power station and triggered a nationwide blackout. However, it is notable that only about 1 million citizens were affected by the outage as the World Bank estimates that only 23% of…

Let's not forget Cybersquirrel1. #cyberwar4ever

http://cybersquirrel1.com/

Re: Power Outages Coincide in LA, New York, and San Francisco

#23
post #7

Crazy conspiracy theory: the Chinese and/or Russians have most likely already compromised our power grid and other infrastructure control systems and are waging covert economical war by disrupting important services.

The biggest part of that economic war would be letting everyone know the grid has been compromised, not the actual outage, there's no advantage to keeping it secret.

I'd argue that taking out the power in three major economic centers at the same time would be the opposite of keeping it secret. But I completely agree with your reasoning.

Re: Power Outages Coincide in LA, New York, and San Francisco

#24
post #7

Crazy conspiracy theory: the Chinese and/or Russians have most likely already compromised our power grid and other infrastructure control systems and are waging covert economical war by disrupting important services.

The biggest part of that economic war would be letting everyone know the grid has been compromised, not the actual outage, there's no advantage to keeping it secret.

Capability demonstration

Re: Power Outages Coincide in LA, New York, and San Francisco

#25
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not likely because of Hanlon's razor: "don't attribute to malice that which can adequately be explained by stupidity". [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor

This takes precedence: "Once is an accident. Twice is a coincidence. Three times is an enemy action" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Moscow_rules

The rule you quoted is not​ on the list there.

Re: Power Outages Coincide in LA, New York, and San Francisco

#26
post #15
post #7

Crazy conspiracy theory: the Chinese and/or Russians have most likely already compromised our power grid and other infrastructure control systems and are waging covert economical war by disrupting important services.

It's a valid hypothesis and not crazy at all. If this were random I'd expect totally random cities, not the three most economically significant. It might not be covert economic warfare, but more of a covert demonstration whose audience is intended to be the US government. "We have lots of dangerous 0-days, and there's a lot more where these came from." In that case public credit would never be claimed. It reminds me…

"If this were random I'd expect totally random cities, not the three most economically significant."

I would be very surprised if there weren't at least 3 power outages in random cities on a daily basis, you just don't hear about it until it's 3 major cities.

Re: Power Outages Coincide in LA, New York, and San Francisco

#27
post #3

The seeming reluctance to spend lots of money on infrastructure maintenance and modernization really worries me, especially when I read these kinds of stories.

Isn't this a self-correcting problem? The grid will become more robust when there is an economic need to do so.

Alas, the "economic need" will be immediate when the outage happens, and the damage will be substantial because it hasn't been updated yet. Possibly expensive enough to make an update unlikely.

The "move fast and break things" attitude does not work for infrastructure. And no, the market will not magically correct all things. Major infrastructure problems are expensive enough that damage to them causes feedback loops.

Re: Power Outages Coincide in LA, New York, and San Francisco

#28
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not likely because of Hanlon's razor: "don't attribute to malice that which can adequately be explained by stupidity". [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor

This takes precedence: "Once is an accident. Twice is a coincidence. Three times is an enemy action" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Moscow_rules

I think you meant to link to this [1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goldfinger_(novel)

Re: Power Outages Coincide in LA, New York, and San Francisco

#29
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a valid hypothesis and not crazy at all. If this were random I'd expect totally random cities, not the three most economically significant. It might not be covert economic warfare, but more of a covert demonstration whose audience is intended to be the US government. "We have lots of dangerous 0-days, and there's a lot more where these came from." In that case public credit would never be claimed. It reminds me…

"If this were random I'd expect totally random cities, not the three most economically significant." I would be very surprised if there weren't at least 3 power outages in random cities on a daily basis, you just don't hear about it until it's 3 major cities.

That is also possible. I can't find any comprehensive history of blackouts anywhere so it's hard to check probabilities.

Re: Power Outages Coincide in LA, New York, and San Francisco

#30
post #7

Crazy conspiracy theory: the Chinese and/or Russians have most likely already compromised our power grid and other infrastructure control systems and are waging covert economical war by disrupting important services.

Crazy reality here: SF was caused by a substation fire.

http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2017/04/21/power-outage-shu...

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