Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Survivorship Bias

xkcd.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

51–60 of 231 posts

Re: Survivorship Bias

#51

Post by lotsofpulp »

majani wrote: post #38

I believe that success does largely depend on capitalizing on lucky breaks. However, I also believe that each and every one of us gets lucky breaks. What matters is can you spot lucky breaks,and when you do spot them, how do you react? I think it's very possible to train yourself to have the awareness to be able to analyze situations, recognize lucky breaks frequently and just run with them. In a word, you could call…

>However, I also believe that each and every one of us gets lucky breaks.

Why do you assume this?

Re: Survivorship Bias

#52

Post by stdbrouw »

ux-app wrote: post #23

Most people are missing the point a bit here. Survivorship bias doesn't relate to people who worked hard, improved themselves and now earn 1-10MM/yr. There are loads of stories like that. Survivorship bias is "Zuck did X, Y and Z, if I do the same then I'll be a multi-billionaire too!" Following the playbook of those that made it into the top 0.001% is foolish and does not properly account for the large part luck pla…

> Survivorship bias doesn't relate to people who worked hard, improved themselves and now earn 1-10MM/yr. There are loads of stories like that.

The point is that, due to survivorship bias, it is hard for us to know whether working hard and improving yourself is actually a better path to success than any of the alternative things you could be doing.

Re: Survivorship Bias

#53

Post by stdbrouw »

hal9000xp wrote: post #10

It's indeed worth to take survivorship bias into account. But if you put too much emphasis on survivorship bias then you would think that everything is completely random and use "survivorship bias" argument as an excuse to do nothing. I'm highly recommend to listen Peter Thiel's speech "You are not a lottery ticket": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZM_JmZdqCw

> But if you put too much emphasis on survivorship bias then you would think that everything is completely random and use "survivorship bias" argument as an excuse to do nothing.

No, what you would do is you would try to figure out how to get more information on those who didn't "survive" so you can make fair comparisons.

Re: Survivorship Bias

#54

Post by vixen99 »

jacquesm wrote: post #31
backpropaganda wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Peter Thiel isn't arguing for startups here, but arguing against the idea that the world is just coin flips and some people randomly end up with 10 heads. So your comment is mostly ad hominem.

He can only argue for that with a platform because he ended up with 10 heads. So no, it is not an ad hominem, it goes for anybody in that position, but also for Peter Thiel. What's the last time you met a poor person giving seminars on the world not just being coinflips? You can improve the odds by hard work and trying to grasp whatever opportunities come your way. But it would be a terrible mistake to assume that th…

Poor people, focusing on survival, don't have the time and wherewithal to give seminars.

Re: Survivorship Bias

#55

Post by mseebach »

arximboldi wrote: post #28
pipio21 wrote: post #24

Like fear, you should take Survivorship bias into account, but it should not dominate you. If you do you will do nothing in life. When I created my first company my parents told me about how hard it was going to be, how few succeed... On the contrary I found it was way easier and natural than studying engineering was, for example, and hundreds or thousands of people could do it. I found most serious people succeed in…

> It is not that hard to become a millionaire, way easier than being a salaried person Sure. If it is not so hard, everyone would do it. If everyone was a millionaire, who would do actual unpleasant work? Who would clean, run hospitals, build infrastructure? Who would work for your startup so you can make money? Your comment is such an example of survivorship bias! Capitalism is a competition. You won, good for you.…

> Capitalism is a competition. [...] You won because someone lost.

This is false, and frankly a bit insulting.

Re: Survivorship Bias

#57

Post by shubhamjain »

pipio21 wrote: post #24

Like fear, you should take Survivorship bias into account, but it should not dominate you. If you do you will do nothing in life. When I created my first company my parents told me about how hard it was going to be, how few succeed... On the contrary I found it was way easier and natural than studying engineering was, for example, and hundreds or thousands of people could do it. I found most serious people succeed in…

> For example, one of the great discoveries in my life is that in business if you don't know how to do something you can just hire the person to teach you or your team or just do it for you.

Are you sure this is the right thing to learn considering how many businesses ran out of money because of hiring too soon? In fact, prevalent advice is to not push the hiring pedal until it becomes unmanageable.

Re: Survivorship Bias

#58

Post by adrianN »

lukego wrote: post #56

"Economically, you can think of a startup as a way to compress your whole working life into a few years."

Most people end up with less money when they retire than before they started working?

Re: Survivorship Bias

#59

Post by jacquesm »

vixen99 wrote: post #54
jacquesm wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He can only argue for that with a platform because he ended up with 10 heads. So no, it is not an ad hominem, it goes for anybody in that position, but also for Peter Thiel. What's the last time you met a poor person giving seminars on the world not just being coinflips? You can improve the odds by hard work and trying to grasp whatever opportunities come your way. But it would be a terrible mistake to assume that th…

Poor people, focusing on survival, don't have the time and wherewithal to give seminars.

I hear giving seminars pay really well.

Do those poor people have time enough to go to those seminars as audience?

Re: Survivorship Bias

#60

Post by taway_1212 »

majani wrote: post #38

I believe that success does largely depend on capitalizing on lucky breaks. However, I also believe that each and every one of us gets lucky breaks. What matters is can you spot lucky breaks,and when you do spot them, how do you react? I think it's very possible to train yourself to have the awareness to be able to analyze situations, recognize lucky breaks frequently and just run with them. In a word, you could call…

> However, I also believe that each and every one of us gets lucky breaks.

Everyone? How about people who have no talents whatsoever - they are at best average (or a bit above average) at everything that could be useful? Most people are like that.

Post reply on HN