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Courts are using risk-assessment software to sentence criminals

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Re: Courts are using risk-assessment software to sentence criminals

#81

Post by tim333 »

mcherm wrote: post #29

One of my big concerns is whether the algorithms are institutionalizing racism, with legal decisions that make it impossible to challenge these. After all, the algorithm has been trained on information about recidivism that was collected in a world where racism skews arrest rates, conviction rates, and sentencing.[1] That means the algorithm is almost certainly baking in a racial bias. Now, I'm sure they aren't fooli…

On the other hand you could probably find ways to make the algorithms less racist than their human equivalent. No system is totally unbiased but doing better than what we have is possible.

Re: Courts are using risk-assessment software to sentence criminals

#82

Post by grinnbearit »

mcherm wrote: post #29

One of my big concerns is whether the algorithms are institutionalizing racism, with legal decisions that make it impossible to challenge these. After all, the algorithm has been trained on information about recidivism that was collected in a world where racism skews arrest rates, conviction rates, and sentencing.[1] That means the algorithm is almost certainly baking in a racial bias. Now, I'm sure they aren't fooli…

Chris Stucchio wrote an interesting blog post which changed my mind on this. Instead of exacerbating it, a Machine Learning model can actively correct for bias.

https://www.chrisstucchio.com/blog/2016/alien_intelligences_...

Re: Courts are using risk-assessment software to sentence criminals

#83

Post by bmh_ca »

hackuser wrote: post #73
bmh_ca wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who has drafted legislation, I can say with some confidence that if the only difference is the introduction of software programmers, that is positive as they are - on whole - more likely to bear a sense of reason and popular morality than those writing legislation right now. With the introduction of explicit algorithms we also hopefully will have the advantage of better data collection, which arguably can…

> software programmers, that is positive as they are - on whole - more likely to bear a sense of reason and popular morality than those writing legislation right now Any time we think some group of people is going to be naturally above human frailties, we are wrong; it never works. We find software programmers to be more reasonable because they are more like us, and also we are imagining ideal hypothetical developers…

The supposition that software programmers are more ethical than the wealthy is based on the observation Paul Piffs coined as the "Asshole Effect".

You will note my choice of words "on whole", which essentially means a statistical aggregation.

But you are absolutely right that everything is politics. I'm not sure I agree about the transparency. Point of interest: You probably know more about the technical exploits the CIA and NSA had than the legal and political mechanisms that permitted them to come about - and almost certainly never will.

Re: Courts are using risk-assessment software to sentence criminals

#84

Post by mrow84 »

grinnbearit wrote: post #82
mcherm wrote: post #29

One of my big concerns is whether the algorithms are institutionalizing racism, with legal decisions that make it impossible to challenge these. After all, the algorithm has been trained on information about recidivism that was collected in a world where racism skews arrest rates, conviction rates, and sentencing.[1] That means the algorithm is almost certainly baking in a racial bias. Now, I'm sure they aren't fooli…

Chris Stucchio wrote an interesting blog post which changed my mind on this. Instead of exacerbating it, a Machine Learning model can actively correct for bias. https://www.chrisstucchio.com/blog/2016/alien_intelligences_...

There are some issues with the arguments contained in that post, which I discussed here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12630980

Bias correction is possible, but, tautologically, a model whose structure cannot capture a bias cannot correct for that bias. This means that a modeller must either understand the bias, and accommodate for it in their model, or use a model that might be able to capture unknown structures and run the (serious) risk of over-fitting that model.

Re: Courts are using risk-assessment software to sentence criminals

#85

Post by Fjolsvith »

I wonder if it were possible to get a copy of the software so as to figure out what the best possible responses to a presentencing interview would be in order to get the most favorable computation.

Like - Yes, I'm very social. I play bridge, take my kids to soccer, I'm a member of the PTA. Yes, I exercise. I have a weight set at home, ride my bicycle, play racquetball at the gym. No sir, I don't do drugs, never touched them. No sir, I don't drink either. Yes sir, I do have a degree, two in fact!

Just in case you might need it at a presentencing interview, of course.

Re: Courts are using risk-assessment software to sentence criminals

#86

Post by kpil »

HillaryBriss wrote: post #69
kpil wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the point is that it's fake predictability, as you can't make arbitrarily complex rules and hope to have built the Totally Fair System. (Provably not, actually.) The best thing we can do is to admit it's not going to be perfect, and use our own reasoning and feelings, and make sure the process is transparent and the people are held accountable.

> it's fake predictability so, a criminal defendant and their lawyer have no better chance of predicting the sentence handed down given guidelines than they would if there were no guidelines?

Guidelines are the opposite of a rule-based system, as you are free to use your judgement and use them for comparison only.

Guidelines are not a black box that spits out a number of month in prison.

Re: Courts are using risk-assessment software to sentence criminals

#87

Post by dragonwriter »

kpil wrote: post #86
HillaryBriss wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it's fake predictability so, a criminal defendant and their lawyer have no better chance of predicting the sentence handed down given guidelines than they would if there were no guidelines?

Guidelines are the opposite of a rule-based system, as you are free to use your judgement and use them for comparison only. Guidelines are not a black box that spits out a number of month in prison.

> Guidelines are not a black box that spits out a number of month in prison.

The Sentencing Guidelines are exactly a white box (a black box has concealed internal operations) that spits out sentences.

OTOH, since they aren't mandatory (by Supreme Court ruling; they were originally statutorily mandatory), they don't produce exactly the same rule-based system as they superficially represent.

Re: Courts are using risk-assessment software to sentence criminals

#88

Post by popironi »

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Re: Courts are using risk-assessment software to sentence criminals

#89

Post by popironi »

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Re: Courts are using risk-assessment software to sentence criminals

#90

Post by popironi »

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