Vanguard Is Growing Faster Than Everybody Else Combined

Here's how it works.

An ETF or Fund like vanguard is a company that issues "coupons" and then buys and sells them (and various related administrative things, e.g. forwarding dividends while combining them).

So when you buy an ETF "share", what happens is that you buy a newly issued coupon from this company. This company gets notified, and as a result will put in market orders for these shares (while combining them in smart ways), and once it has bought the shares, issue the "share". (needless to say there's aggregation happening)

When you sell the reverse happens. You essentially request the company destroy the coupon. In response the company will sell shares. Once the shares are sold, the company will transfer that money (ie. whatever they got) to you.

So to answer your questions, in a flash crash scenario as an ETF owner you'll experience more lag in both cases. Ie. whether you're buying or selling the lag will add to your disadvantage compared to the rest of the market. So simplifying things, if a flash crash happens and you own an ETF or a fund you'll only be "allowed" to sell once the drop is over. If you try to buy at the bottom your order won't be filled for a while. Mind you this will be in the seconds range, or in particularly bad cases a few minutes.

In the US, there is also regulation that allows funds to pause redemptions. So if you own a fund that fears it may be significantly affected by a market drop, it can then block your money (regardless of what a contract you have with them says) for a period of up to months. Given what has historically happened, for small funds this means if there is a large drop, they will block your money making things worse (but somewhat avoiding feedback in the market that would cause individual share crashes). You will lose something like 20-80% of your capital if this happens. The smaller a fund the more likely this is to happen.

So an ETF should only be used for amounts of money that are truly too small to buy individual shares, something under maybe $10k. For everything else you should put in the work to buy the individual shares. If you don't do this, yes there are costs that will be imposed upon you in adverse scenarios.

Ok. I'm curious why you're telling me this. What's your motivation?

There's certainly no point in arguing with me, since I'm both reasonably poorly informed and aware of it; I have made no bones about the fact that my post was unserious. Yet you leap to the defense of what should, after all, be a very unexciting thing. And you aren't alone in doing so.

That, like this breathless article, is mildly troubling to me. These institutions should engender no loyalty, embody no attributes; only then does the market actually work. Evidence of those tendencies suggests the distorting effect of human psychology. And in tone it is too much like what we saw before the collapse for my liking.

> will everyone try to sell the same set of funds and will crash the funds themselves?

The ETF is backed by stocks in other companies, so if one person tries to sell someone else should be willing to buy, so long as the sale price * the number of shares is below the collective value of all of the shares held by the ETF.

Collective ownership of companies is a more interesting question. If everyone owns fractions of every company, what are the incentives for good governance at any one company? If it goes bankrupt, it's only a tiny fraction of everyone's portfolio.

Matt Levine has covered the latter beat for quite some time.

A fund may contain hundreds of stocks/bonds. Would you rather make one transaction or 100? (Bearing in mind most brokers charge a fixed per-transaction fee...)

This analogy has its limitations but let's go with it a small way.

Everyone has the choice to copy who they think is smart or write their own answer.

Each person compares the expected value of writing their own answer with copying whoever they think is smart.

Some win, some lose. As it gets harder to work out who is smart yet everyone is copying, beating that average becomes easier. That proportion of the class who are capable of beating that average have an incentive to try it.

Stock picking has been massively overvalued for a long time. The costs people have paid for that value have been far too high. The index wins because it is /cheap/, the costs of investing in the index are low. As the market is now adjusting to that mispricing, among those stock pickers who can actually do it, there will be some good opportunities. Stock picking, whether buy someone like Buffet, or by an algo shop or whatever isn't going to go away. Every time the market is mispriced there's an opportunity. Price will end up somewhere close to value in the long run. It's amazing that with index funds it took so very long to happen. Malkiel pointed it out pretty clearly in a popular book that hasn't been out of print since, what, 40+ years ago. It's great, everyone should read it for its market insights, especially if you want to pick stocks.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Random_Walk_Down_Wall_Street