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UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

theguardian.com

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Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#221

Post by junto »

headmelted wrote: post #16

Actually this is just good business for the Tories, and I've long expected it. The opposition is in disarray under Corbyn, and our prime minister has never won an election. This is as easy a victory as Theresa May will ever be able to bank on, and legitimises her leadership in the eyes of a large section of the public. She can also claim (maybe rightly so) that she has the undisputed majority support of the public fo…

It is a smart move. The next election was due in 2020.

By doing this she gives herself a full five years to hammer out all of the deals required to "successfully" Brexit.

With the opposition in disarray, they stand a good chance to securing more seats. This helps them to prevent other parties blocking the things she needs to pass in order to start revoking EU laws, which they have already said they will copy verbatim to start with into UK law, and then slowly rewrite the bits out they don't want. EHRC being one of their key targets.

Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#222

Post by makomk »

rbehrends wrote: post #152
wsc981 wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the UK will be fine, post Brexit, as the UK is a very important trading partner for The Netherlands, Denmark & Ireland. These countries don't want harsh punishments for the UK (as Brussels seems intent on) and they want little trade barriers: http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/792782/EU-rebellion-Bloc...

I've never really seen the "punishment" rhetoric outside the British press; among the EU-27, the assumption seems to be that the consequences of a hard Brexit will be bad enough. The problem with a hard Brexit is all the non-tariff barriers [1] that will kick in. This is unavoidable: lack of tariffs was never that big a benefit of EU membership, because the EU has few tariffs as is and one of the lowest weighted mean…

Probably because the EU 27's rhetorical tactic is to claim all the ways they come up with to punish Britain over Brexit are simply inevitable consequences of Brexit, regardless how obvious it is that they're just things they've pulled out their ass for naked political reasons. For example, their bizarre interpretation of a rule forbidding countries from negotiating trade agreements unilaterally to mean the EU couldn't negotiate its post-exit trade agreements with the UK until the UK actually exited (hurting members with close trading ties to the UK), or cynical insistence Spain must get a veto on the deal because of the Gibraltar border but Ireland doesn't get one.

Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#223

Post by Angostura »

smcl wrote: post #185
tehwalrus wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vote Lib Dem. Seriously. I am a candidate in very north london, we're all organised for this possibility.

Why vote Lib Dem? If the last election turned out slightly differently and the Conservatives still needed the coalition, I bet they'd be out happily singing the praises of Brexit to us all, and walking back their campaign promises. They previously always had a "were not like Labour/Con" cred, but the coalition showed that this simply is not true

> but the coalition showed that this simply is not true

Actually, their behaviour in the coalition was the fact or that made me respect the LibDems tremendously. In my opinion they actually set aside party advantage in order to give the UK a working government. I believe that without their moderating influence the last government would have been a lot worse - hats off to them. And I speak as a (probably former) Labour voter.

Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#224

Post by Nursie »

alkonaut wrote: post #219

LibDems/Labour should just go into these elections saying "we'll keep the kingdom together". I think there is a fair chunk of people who voted leave who didn't actually realize they were voting for England and Wales to leave Scotland and Northern Ireland, rather than voting for the UK to leave the EU. If Labour and LibDems play their cards right, couldn't they make these elections about the mandate for Conservatives…

All parties will say that though.

Plus it's not clear the Scots would actually vote to leave and the talk about NI leaving the UK is nonsense. They voted, narrowly, to remain in the EU. Not to remain in the EU even if that meant leaving the UK.

Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#225

Post by alkonaut »

Silhouette wrote: post #85
Aaargh20318 wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but many who voted never expected them to actually win and saw it as a protest vote. A lot of people claimed they regretted voting brexit after it became clear the brexit camp actually won. Now brexit has been initiated and it's becoming clear what the consequences are many more people are getting cold feet.

A lot of people claimed they regretted voting brexit after it became clear the brexit camp actually won. This is mostly just wishful thinking on the part of the Remain side. Opinion polls have pretty consistently shown very little change in overall sentiment on Brexit. In many cases they seem to have observed marginally more regret among Leave voters than Remain voters, but the numbers were small enough in both cases…

I always wondered how many realized that "leave" would mean the union is dissolved (The Kingdom, that is - not the European union), and of give those circumstances would rather have voted remain, to keep the UK intact?

Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#226

Post by ZeroGravitas »

barrkel wrote: post #189
MatthiasP wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The desire for a trade war with the UK is not exactly high on the continent, especially considering the debt crisis is still looming over Brussels. The UK will probably get a deal like Norway and will be better off without Brussels. But then many other EU countries will ask: Who actually needs the political union?

The UK won't get a deal like Norway because UK politics prohibits it; it's not politically acceptable to continue to send billions to the EU after leaving. If UK were to contribute as much to the EU as Norway per capita, it would be over 2 billion EUR per year.

They also have higher per-capita immigration from the EU, which is apparently also a political no-no for the UK.

Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#227

Post by rbehrends »

MatthiasP wrote: post #183
wsc981 wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the UK will be fine, post Brexit, as the UK is a very important trading partner for The Netherlands, Denmark & Ireland. These countries don't want harsh punishments for the UK (as Brussels seems intent on) and they want little trade barriers: http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/792782/EU-rebellion-Bloc...

The desire for a trade war with the UK is not exactly high on the continent, especially considering the debt crisis is still looming over Brussels. The UK will probably get a deal like Norway and will be better off without Brussels. But then many other EU countries will ask: Who actually needs the political union?

> The UK will probably get a deal like Norway and will be better off without Brussels.

EEA membership (which is what Norway has) includes:

* Freedom of movement.

* Contributions to the EU budget.

* Implementing most EU regulations without actually having representation in the bodies that decide them.

This would not go over well with Leave voters and would basically be a worse deal for the UK than remaining in the EU would be.

Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#228

Post by tspiteri »

bshimmin wrote: post #211
tspiteri wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And it is a bit ironic that New Labour introduced tuition fees, the Tories were the coalition partner that wanted to increase them, but it is the Lib Dems who caught all the flak.

It's understandable that they took a hammering over it: it was a tentpole pledge, they couldn't stick to it, and they then apologised for it: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-19646731

Of course you're right. I just pointed out that the Tories and Labour did worse on the issue and suffered less for it. But then, the Lib Dems did the pledge and weren't able to stand up for it, so they did deserve some punishment.

Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#229

Post by alkonaut »

Nursie wrote: post #224
alkonaut wrote: post #219

LibDems/Labour should just go into these elections saying "we'll keep the kingdom together". I think there is a fair chunk of people who voted leave who didn't actually realize they were voting for England and Wales to leave Scotland and Northern Ireland, rather than voting for the UK to leave the EU. If Labour and LibDems play their cards right, couldn't they make these elections about the mandate for Conservatives…

All parties will say that though. Plus it's not clear the Scots would actually vote to leave and the talk about NI leaving the UK is nonsense. They voted, narrowly, to remain in the EU. Not to remain in the EU even if that meant leaving the UK.

> All parties will say that though.

I don't think conservatives say that "We aren't leaving if Scotland or Northern ireland poll even close to 50% for leaving the UK in order to remain in the EU after a brexit vote". That would have been useful information before the referendum.

> it's not clear the Scots wouldnactually vote

Exactly, it's very uncertain. And having a referendum with that uncertainty was very strange. And if it does become clear that the leave vote actually did break up the UK, then the consequences should (and could!) have been known to voters in the referendum.

Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#230

Post by snowwolf »

smcl wrote: post #185
tehwalrus wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vote Lib Dem. Seriously. I am a candidate in very north london, we're all organised for this possibility.

Why vote Lib Dem? If the last election turned out slightly differently and the Conservatives still needed the coalition, I bet they'd be out happily singing the praises of Brexit to us all, and walking back their campaign promises. They previously always had a "were not like Labour/Con" cred, but the coalition showed that this simply is not true

I really don't get this line of thinking at all. In any coalition compromises are required. Yes the Lib Dems made a campaign promise not to increase tuition fees. But (and this is important), they DID NOT WIN the general election so therefore did not have a strong mandate for those promises. Somehow the Lib Dems get all the blame for increased tuition fees as if it was their idea. The blame for that should lie squarely with the Tories. They really pushed for it and were willing to compromise in other areas important to the Lib Dems to achieve it.
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