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UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

theguardian.com

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Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#171

Post by tonyedgecombe »

Baeocystin wrote: post #129
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was a Corbyn supporter, on the basis that we'd had too many Labour leaders who went against the wishes of the members and supported Tory policy. Then on Brexit, he went against the wishes of the members and supported Tory policy. Needless to say I'm no longer a supporter. Of course, it's easy to forget that all the other leadership candidates and challengers would have done the same. I'd love to see the scenario in…

Now that Article 50 has been triggered, isn't Brexit a done deal but for the negotiating? (I'm not in the UK, apologies if this is a common question.) [edit] Thanks for the answers!

There is quite a wide range of opinions on the desired outcome of the negotiations, often referred to as either a soft or hard brexit.

Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#172

Post by tonyedgecombe »

interfixus wrote: post #104
wsc981 wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the UK will be fine, post Brexit, as the UK is a very important trading partner for The Netherlands, Denmark & Ireland. These countries don't want harsh punishments for the UK (as Brussels seems intent on) and they want little trade barriers: http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/792782/EU-rebellion-Bloc...

Of course the UK will be fine. The doomsday rhetoric is completely out of hand. The EU is going to fragment and crumble over the next ten years. And Europa will be, if not fine then at least better for it.

"The EU is going to fragment and crumble over the next ten years."

The EU will probably strengthen after brexit.

Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#173

Post by grey-area »

SpeakMouthWords wrote: post #45
grey-area wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How likely do you think the unification of Ireland is now and after brexit if a hard border is imposed? Has sentiment shifted in that debate?

Very much still a meme at this point

Why do you think it is unrealistic (asking as an outsider to NI and Eire)? I mean on a timescale of decades of course, not in a few years.

Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#174

Post by tonyedgecombe »

caoilte wrote: post #111

Don't rule out the very real possibility that this is about heading off the unprecedented police investigation that could lead to twenty Conservative MPs (larger than their working majority) being sent to prison. https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/mar/23/conservative-el...

Unless those MPs don't stand again that problem still stands.

Also it seems extremely unlikely anybody will go to prison.

Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#175

Post by collyw »

tehwalrus wrote: post #154
ue_ wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agreed with the Lib Dems on about two issues: privacy and censorship. For these, I disagree with the Labour line. However I am also against capitalist exploitation, and that makes a stronger case for me than the previous two issues. If the Lib Dems became a Democratic/Liberal Socialist party, I'd be happier.

I am a social liberal (Lib Dem), my wife is a liberal socialist (labour). We disagree pretty much only on those issues (privacy, data protection.) Capitalism = bad, Markets = OKish. It's only the Tories who believe in unrepentant profit mongering as a good way to organise society. (Oh, and UKIP. are they still a thing?)

Ahead of the Lib dems in a poll I just saw on the BBC.

Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#176

Post by Aaargh20318 »

foldr wrote: post #148
Aaargh20318 wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is mostly just wishful thinking on the part of the Remain side. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-leave-... "Four per cent of Leave voters polled said they thought Brexit was the worst thing to have happened this year," The result was 51% leave 49% remain, it would be the reverse if they could vote again today.

That's assuming that no-one has shifted the other way: https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/br...

No, it's not. From the same article I linked before: "But a small number of Remain voters were apparently glad the vote did not go their way, with two per cent saying Brexit was in fact the best part of 2016"

So 4% of 'leave' voters regret voting leave and 2% of 'remain' voters regret voting 'remain'. So in total it's about a 2% shift which would reverse the current result percentages.

Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#177

Post by tonyedgecombe »

Nursie wrote: post #83

In my fantasy of UK politics, the centre and centre-left parties would form an opposition coalition ahead of the poll, proposing some radical reforms like PR, as well as some socially progressive policies like reigning in the surveillance state, thoroughly reviewing the drug laws, reviewing basic income as an idea and instituting some sort of evidence-basis mandate for law-making. I realise this is a pipe-dream, howe…

The SNP would never go for PR.

Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#178

Post by nicky0 »

timrichard wrote: post #141
pmontra wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to what I read here the Labour is going to lose many seats. Are those Labour MPs so eager to lose their job? Amazing.

More amazing if they voted against an election, with the inevitable implication that the current regime is doing a good job and they don't want to take over right now, thanks all the same for asking.

This is why I have always thought the fixed term parliaments act is a nonsense. What opposition would ever vote against the motion to call an election?

Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#179

Post by sjm »

k-mcgrady wrote: post #11
woodylondon wrote: post #4

I knew I should have put a bet on this, we were never going to leave Europe. Which ever parties manifesto says stay in Europe will win - end of story.

As much as I want to stay in Europe that ain't happening. She didn't need to call this. She did it because the polls say she'll win and that's another 5 years we're stuck with a tory government. Labour is the biggest challenger and they're pro-brexit. With the SNP's popularity Labour can't win enough seats to challenge anyway and given their differing stances on brexit I don't see how a Labour/Lib Dems/SNP coalition…

Are Labour really "pro-Brexit"? I understand they're pretty divided right now, but I thought it was more that they have to publicly show they're prepared to live with it moving forward.

Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#180

Post by pmyteh »

hacker_9 wrote: post #99
samdoidge wrote: post #63

Smart timing from May - this will be devastating for Corbyn. Current polling: CON 43, LAB 25 [1] Conservatives won the 2015 Election polling at 34% [2]. [1] https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9828 [2] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/96/UK_opini...

Too bad polls haven't been accurate for a while now.

Polling is hard; there are lots of ways for polls to be inaccurate (see the British Polling Council postmortem of the last general election for the gory details).

Those errors don't add up to 20 points. And I say that as a card-carrying member of the Labour party.

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