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UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

theguardian.com

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Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#151

Post by dagw »

nthcolumn wrote: post #103
tehwalrus wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vote Lib Dem. Seriously. I am a candidate in very north london, we're all organised for this possibility.

Surely this is a Tory own-goal? Petitioning the people again (whilst ignoring the inconvenient ones)? You'd have thought Cameron's dodgy success rate would have put paid to that. Of course your lot fell for the PR one... that worked so we got one on Scotland - ooh squeaky - and then he tried it again on Europe:'not so great' as POTUS would say. How easy will it be to make this an anti-Brexit vote, a vote to keep Scot…

Surely this is a Tory own-goal?

Labour is in a bit of leadership dispute and the Article 50 negotiations haven't had time to go bad. Now is probably the best possible time to call an election. This time next year Labour might have gotten their house in order and the first results of the negotiations with the EU will be in and under close scrutiny, and it is very likely the the government will have been forced to make some tough concessions. Both of those things are likely to make winning an election much harder.

Also if they win now they can conduct the Article 50 negotiations in peace and with clear mandate. Trying to win an election and negotiate Brexit at the same time will be much harder, if for no other reason than the fact that the person across the table won't have any idea if the person they're talking to now will be in charge when it comes time to actually sign the papers.

Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#152

Post by rbehrends »

wsc981 wrote: post #57
headmelted wrote: post #16

Actually this is just good business for the Tories, and I've long expected it. The opposition is in disarray under Corbyn, and our prime minister has never won an election. This is as easy a victory as Theresa May will ever be able to bank on, and legitimises her leadership in the eyes of a large section of the public. She can also claim (maybe rightly so) that she has the undisputed majority support of the public fo…

I think the UK will be fine, post Brexit, as the UK is a very important trading partner for The Netherlands, Denmark & Ireland. These countries don't want harsh punishments for the UK (as Brussels seems intent on) and they want little trade barriers: http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/792782/EU-rebellion-Bloc...

I've never really seen the "punishment" rhetoric outside the British press; among the EU-27, the assumption seems to be that the consequences of a hard Brexit will be bad enough. The problem with a hard Brexit is all the non-tariff barriers [1] that will kick in. This is unavoidable: lack of tariffs was never that big a benefit of EU membership, because the EU has few tariffs as is and one of the lowest weighted mean tariff rates in the world. The benefit of the single market is that British products and services are basically treated just like domestic products and services in all the other member states for regulatory purposes.

This will force Britain to largely keep regulations for products that are being exported in line with the EU's (as its biggest export market), while still adding costs [2].

Nobody seriously believes that the British economy will implode as a result; what it will do is retard economic growth somewhat (economists argue how much) and possibly create structural problems in sectors that are heavily reliant on exports.

P.S.: I would also not rely on the Daily Express. It's probably one of the worst British tabloids.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-tariff_barriers_to_trade

[2] https://www.ft.com/content/69202760-c3a2-11e6-9bca-2b93a6856...

Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#153

Post by icebraining »

Kurtz79 wrote: post #117
interfixus wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course the UK will be fine. The doomsday rhetoric is completely out of hand. The EU is going to fragment and crumble over the next ten years. And Europa will be, if not fine then at least better for it.

"The doomsday rhetoric is completely out of hand." "The EU is going to fragment and crumble over the next ten years." No comment.

interfixus' point is that the EU crumbling is a good thing for everyone involved, hence not a "doomsday".

Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#154

Post by tehwalrus »

ue_ wrote: post #122
tehwalrus wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vote Lib Dem. Seriously. I am a candidate in very north london, we're all organised for this possibility.

I agreed with the Lib Dems on about two issues: privacy and censorship. For these, I disagree with the Labour line. However I am also against capitalist exploitation, and that makes a stronger case for me than the previous two issues. If the Lib Dems became a Democratic/Liberal Socialist party, I'd be happier.

I am a social liberal (Lib Dem), my wife is a liberal socialist (labour). We disagree pretty much only on those issues (privacy, data protection.)

Capitalism = bad, Markets = OKish.

It's only the Tories who believe in unrepentant profit mongering as a good way to organise society. (Oh, and UKIP. are they still a thing?)

Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#155

Post by vixen99 »

DonaldFisk wrote: post #93
louisswiss wrote: post #20

PM Theresa May on her reasoning for the snap election: "In recent weeks Labour have threatened to vote against the final agreement we reach with the European Union. "The Liberal Democrats said they want to grind the business of government to a standstill. "The Scottish National Party say they will vote against the legislation that formally repeals Britain's membership of the European Union. "And un-elected members of…

Party before country.

How is giving people a chance to vote putting Party before Country?

Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#156

Post by anoonmoose »

hacker_9 wrote: post #99
samdoidge wrote: post #63

Smart timing from May - this will be devastating for Corbyn. Current polling: CON 43, LAB 25 [1] Conservatives won the 2015 Election polling at 34% [2]. [1] https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9828 [2] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/96/UK_opini...

Too bad polls haven't been accurate for a while now.

Brexit was too close to call and Hillary won the popular vote so it ain't like things in the polling world are all that wild.

Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#157

Post by DonaldFisk »

Nursie wrote: post #83

In my fantasy of UK politics, the centre and centre-left parties would form an opposition coalition ahead of the poll, proposing some radical reforms like PR, as well as some socially progressive policies like reigning in the surveillance state, thoroughly reviewing the drug laws, reviewing basic income as an idea and instituting some sort of evidence-basis mandate for law-making. I realise this is a pipe-dream, howe…

Absolutely, though we perhaps disagree on what's meant by "centre" (see Political Compass).

The SNP (and the one Green MP) support Basic Income. I think John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, also supports Basic Income, but it's now too short a timescale for Labour to get a policy in place and convince the general public. The Liberal Party supported a variant of it, but the Lib Dems now oppose it.

Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#158

Post by TorKlingberg »

arethuza wrote: post #100
mcjiggerlog wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is zero chance of that happening before the election, yes. The only major pro-EU voice in parliament now (discounting regional parties) is Lib Dems.

Worth noting that the largest "regional" party, the SNP, has 54 MPs which is six times the 9 MPs that the Lib Dems have.

Yes, but their upside is limited. They already have almost all Scottish seats, and they are not going to win elsewhere.

Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#159

Post by matthewmacleod »

sir_throwaway wrote: post #107
louisswiss wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No - but communicating to the public that the reason you are calling an election is to silence the opposition parties and other bodies holding you to account (and espousing the view that the opposition should effectively shut up and put up) definitely registers high on my dark and scary times scale

Nobody is silencing anyone. The Lib Dems campaigned for an EU referendum [1], and now want to reverse it because the result wasn't what they wanted. The SNP campaigned for Scotland to leave the EU (as it would have done if leaving the UK) in their independence referendum, and now behave as if leaving the EU is unthinkable. Both are playing politics. The ground has shifted, and so it's helpful for the government to ge…

The statement that the SNP campaigned for Scotland to leave the EU is a bald-faced and deliberate lie. Please do not spread misinformation like this; there are enough lies kicking around already.

Re: UK Prime Minister Theresa May announces intention to hold general election

#160

Post by deadbunny »

tehwalrus wrote: post #49
headmelted wrote: post #16

Actually this is just good business for the Tories, and I've long expected it. The opposition is in disarray under Corbyn, and our prime minister has never won an election. This is as easy a victory as Theresa May will ever be able to bank on, and legitimises her leadership in the eyes of a large section of the public. She can also claim (maybe rightly so) that she has the undisputed majority support of the public fo…

Vote Lib Dem. Seriously. I am a candidate in very north london, we're all organised for this possibility.

After the omnishambles last time? No thanks.
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