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The Great Japan Potato-Chip Crisis

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Re: The Great Japan Potato-Chip Crisis

#141

Post by emodendroket »

nihonde wrote: post #127
emodendroket wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fair enough. I just meant to say that the point of the regulation isn't necessarily just the quality of the produce.

It may have little to do with policy-making and is surely anecdotal, but Japanese produce is far better and cheaper than what I used to get in America. (And the same is true of meat and baked goods.) The difference is plainly obvious. The idea that anything other than junk food would be worthy of importing from elsewhere is almost laughable to me. On the other hand, I don't buy corn or potatoes too often here.

As for better: some of it is and some of it isn't. Lettuce is definitely not better. As for price... not so much. Fruits are much more expensive in Japan.

Re: The Great Japan Potato-Chip Crisis

#142

Post by glandium »

YokoZar wrote: post #102
glandium wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the primary cause of the shortage is that 70+% of the potato supply comes from one specific region of Japan, and that that region has had a very bad Typhoon which caused bad crops. IOW, the primary cause of the shortage was a (almost) SPOF in the supply chain.

And why is there a single point of failure? Because there is a hard cap on imports. No cap -> no shortage, just as much as no typhoon -> no shortage.

> And why is there a single point of failure? Because there is a hard cap on imports.

You don't need to import to avoid the single point of failure. You just need to not have _one_ region where most of your production is.

Re: The Great Japan Potato-Chip Crisis

#143

Post by pasbesoin »

JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #10
yladiz wrote: post #3

It's an interesting experience seeing some shelves in 7-11 here in Tokyo partly empty due to this shortage -- outside of perishable goods like onigiri, it's pretty uncommon to see something like potato chips missing on a shelf. I wonder how long it'll take for the shortage to end, and if they'll be able to mitigate it by importing. One thing it doesn't mention in this article is that companies are pretty strict about…

Are US potatoes really lower quality than Japanese ones?

From memory, U.S. potatoes have gone GM (genetically modified), IIRC. This may present a barrier -- I don't know WRT Japan.

(And if so, maybe one day will be thankful for those barriers and the genetic diversity they facilitate/protect.)

Re: The Great Japan Potato-Chip Crisis

#144

Post by brownbat »

mistermann wrote: post #94
brownbat wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think GP was making a political statement, just commenting on the buried lead, but I'll play devil's advocate. I want farmers to have jobs too. I'd still find it sad if that were the rationale here, though, because while protectionist measures can save jobs, they remain one of the worst tools to do so, typically costing several hundred thousand dollars per job. Tire manufacturing jobs saved at $900,000 per jo…

> Sadly there's just no free lunch. There's such a thing as no lunch though, a situation one may find themselves in if their job is re-accomodated to a global location with "higher economic efficiency".

Definitely, the plight of people put out of jobs, regions losing industries, it's not to be understated or trifled with. That's a major half of the problem.

The rock on the other side of this hard place though is that there's also no lunch at all for someone who can't afford basic foodstuffs because of tariffs and quotas block access to reasonably priced goods.

What's worse is that trade protections tend to be incredibly regressive, hitting those shopping for basic necessities hardest, far more than people who can buy yachts from whatever jurisdiction they like.

How do we confront this dilemma? How do we thread the needle? We've never really pulled it off correctly in the past... but there is a way to do it.

If you have real trade assistance programs, then you create a situation where every single person is better off under trade liberalization. The problem is we've talked a good game on trade assistance, but never done it right, and never really reevaluated what works and doesn't.

It doesn't mean three year retraining programs for people five years off from retirement. It's going to include mix of solutions, including some small taxes on goods likely to be imported and straight up wealth transfers to former employees. Relocation assistance or retraining if they want it, but some people won't.

If protectionism costs $800,000 per job, then this is easy. Just tax that good, give the worker their old $60k/yr salary for a few years, no questions asked, and let consumers pocket the difference. You could pay them $60k for life and we'd all still be better off, but some people might prefer a phase out, either way.

Re: The Great Japan Potato-Chip Crisis

#145

Post by mistermann »

brownbat wrote: post #144
mistermann wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Sadly there's just no free lunch. There's such a thing as no lunch though, a situation one may find themselves in if their job is re-accomodated to a global location with "higher economic efficiency".

Definitely, the plight of people put out of jobs, regions losing industries, it's not to be understated or trifled with. That's a major half of the problem. The rock on the other side of this hard place though is that there's also no lunch at all for someone who can't afford basic foodstuffs because of tariffs and quotas block access to reasonably priced goods. What's worse is that trade protections tend to be incred…

> there's also no lunch at all for someone who can't afford basic foodstuffs because of tariffs and quotas block access to reasonably priced goods

Is that a real threat though? I mean, we've had some form of equilibrium in economies for thousands of years, some people do better than others, but people more or less "get by". Whereas now, I have the feeling that we are very quickly getting into dangerous uncharted territory. I see very little reason why China couldn't make 70%++ of everything needed by the entire planet, with some exceptions here and there. And I don't see how UBI is going to solve that problem, if entire countries essentially no longer have any income, since they no longer do anything.

> If protectionism costs $800,000 per job

From a quick look at that report, the quote I found is "In 2006 a Commerce Department study found that three candy-making jobs are lost for each sugar growing and processing job saved by higher sugar prices."

Personally, I'd need something a bit more substantial before I'm going to believe the massive numbers thrown around on the cost of protectionism, especially considering the likelihood of them being propaganda.

Re: The Great Japan Potato-Chip Crisis

#146

Post by mistermann »

arkades wrote: post #111
mistermann wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Security of food supply is now also nationalism? Are we allowed to do anything in our self-interest anymore?

Food security is not nationalism. But people actually campaigning for it... People, who rarely get worked up about anything that doesn't put money in their pocket or stroke their ego, giving enough of a damn to go out and campaign for it... well, OP said it directly: he wasn't sure whether it was about putting money in their pocket, or stroking their ego.

Or, maybe they'd like a secure, trustworthy food supply.

Re: The Great Japan Potato-Chip Crisis

#147

Post by emodendroket »

Arizhel wrote: post #137
emodendroket wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not quite right. Large holders wanted to sell the food for more money. It wasn't a matter of government agents marching in an commandeering the fields.

That's still an example of bad government. It's the government's job to act in the best interests of the nation and the citizens, even if that means going against the wishes of the rich elite.

Several people are participating in this conversation and some of them seem to be arguing that if you just totally liberalize trade the problems will solve themselves. I agree with you, though.

Re: The Great Japan Potato-Chip Crisis

#148

Post by mikekchar »

Pitarou wrote: post #132
mikekchar wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But nothing in Japan is really ever temporary. Once it's in place, it takes something pretty major to move it out of place. And for the record, I don't think it was ever intended to be a temporary measure. The whole reason a million people died of hunger after WWII was because there was no local production of food. And not only that, there was no centralised food distribution system, so even when food became availabl…

> Nobody that I know of complains about about the agricultural system here (granted, I live in a farming community :-) ). I did (granted, I have a background in Economics). Tell a Japanese how much a tin of tomatoes costs in Japan compared to the US or the EU, or a mango, or even a packet of generic acetaminophen (paracetamol) for that matter. Now ask them why. Nine times out of ten, they’ll say something about the J…

The answer to the question why is quite obvious from where I stand: Farmers get paid more because of the protectionist policy of the government. The distribution system also prioritises local food over imported food. They also spend money on things like being able to trace exactly where the food comes from. When my neighbour takes his rice to the JA, I can buy it at the local supermarket the next day. His name is on the bag.

The government also disallows the sale of farming land. This ensures that you don't have a few mega operations taking over all of the farm land. If you want to start farming in Japan, you will have no problem because land is available. If you want to start farming in the UK? Good luck unless you have millions of pounds to get started. Even then you probably won't be able to get any land.

In order to ensure that the land is in productive use, land owners get government subsidies when it is. Again, this ensures that land is available for farming.

Compare the amount of money that Japanese farmers get for their produce to US or European farmers. Compare the markup that US and European distributors charge to that of the JA. If you think Japanese farmers don't know what's going on, I think you are very much mistaken.

Re: The Great Japan Potato-Chip Crisis

#149

Post by iopq »

emodendroket wrote: post #140
iopq wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which are much more expensive than American goods, which is what I'm saying is bad. If there isn't an extremely good trade deal between the two countries, then the tariffs will be high. Japan doesn't WANT a lot of American stuff, so they have no incentive to give a really good deal to American manufacturers. http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/10/trump-and-abe-us-may-struggle... indeed, it seems it's hard to get a good trade…

A Mazda is much more expensive than a comparable Ford?

You have to pay more for a Mazda than you otherwise would. It doesn't matter if Ford makes worse or more expensive cars.

Re: The Great Japan Potato-Chip Crisis

#150

Post by emodendroket »

iopq wrote: post #149
emodendroket wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A Mazda is much more expensive than a comparable Ford?

You have to pay more for a Mazda than you otherwise would. It doesn't matter if Ford makes worse or more expensive cars.

And yet Japanese cars consistently are among the top sellers in the United States (and are hardly uncommon on most of the globe's continents). It seems to me that there is nothing "unhealthy" about Japanese trade relationships.
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