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Jeff Bezos’ Annual Letter

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Re: Jeff Bezos’ Annual Letter

#151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. As a long time prime user, it's been the rise in counterfeit goods that has really shook my unwavering loyalty to Amazon. I used to order everything on there, without thinking twice. Now, I'm much more careful about what I buy on there, and often just avoid purchasing on Amazon entirely.

I'm mystified by this personally. I frequently purchase from Amazon, and haven't(to my knowledge) received counterfeit goods. Generally I stick to "fufilled by Amazon" or otherwise first-party sellers, so that may have something to do with it. Maybe I'm not purchasing niche enough products to run into this issue.

The issue is that the counterfeits look extremely close to the real thing, sometimes indistinguishable. It's the quality of the components inside that's far worse. A lot of names brands are having their reputations tarnished from this. Things I bought in the last year on Amazon that were fake:

cookware, phone charger, headphones, power supply, phone battery, SD card

I once used amazon almost daily so this is only a fraction of my purchases, but the fakes tend to be on expensive stuff. The convenience is not worth the chance of getting something worthless and I've stopped using amazon for anything.

Re: Jeff Bezos’ Annual Letter

#152
post #17
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

tl;dr: the map is not the territory This problem is pretty much every company I've ever worked for if/when they got over six engineers. I spend more time and a hell of a lot more energy than I should trying to keep managers or easily enthused engineers from hugging the project to death. I ended up becoming a process expert out of a sense of self preservation. I use process a lot, but it's always in support of the 'wh…

Your trying to solve the wrong problem, it's generally a people problem not a process problem.

The people problem is that everyone has the instinct to solve problems with rules, but not the energy or interest to do it properly.

If you don't try to steer the conversation toward reversible decisions AND avoid trivialities then you spend your problem solving budget on actively harmful plans.

Re: Jeff Bezos’ Annual Letter

#153
post #64
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is an oligopoly in politics called Democrats and Republicans, and they've created, by law, many barriers to entry for any competing parties, let alone casting aside either party. Disruption in this vast market is difficult. Millenials and Xers will have to team up and work cooperatively. The baby boomers have gotten Democrats and Republicans to pander to them, there is no possible way those parties go away if b…

>they've created, by law, many barriers to entry for any competing parties, let alone casting aside either party. Do you have some examples of these types of laws?

At a federal level, the constitution itself does this structurally by requiring an absolute majority in the electoral college for a president to win; and that makes a president from an emergent third party very difficult. That party would have to already be competitive in a majority of states, but that's also difficult if that party can't ever promote someone to the presidency and use the national bully pulpit to the party's advantage. And whenever a 3rd party person appears in Congress, the existing two parties require them to caucus with either Democrats or Republicans, in order to get committee assignments and you know, do anything other than vote on stuff. You're not a legislator if you aren't on any committees.

At a state level, election laws do things like guaranteeing the two parties a position on various ballots: city, county, state, federal. But then put in all kinds of onerous requirements for other parties just to get on the ballot. While Democrats and Republicans are using resources for other things, upstart parties have to spend money and volunteers just to get signatures in order to get on ballots and appear in debates. Primaries are tax payer funded, free publicity for established parties. Numerous laws exist for small things like elections commissions only having either Democrats or Republicans seated - i.e. if you're a third party, you can't even run for a state or county elections commission, it's prohibited. These sorts of things are very state by state or even by county.

But as I indicated in my original post, it's how U.S. elections favor the lesser of two evils strategy, else you get punished when voting for who you really want. Minor parties seldom get pluralities, and they suck away votes from an ideologically similar major party candidate which can cause them to lose, and then its the ideological opponent who wins as a result. Duverger's Law is what it's called.

Re: Jeff Bezos’ Annual Letter

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm mystified by this personally. I frequently purchase from Amazon, and haven't(to my knowledge) received counterfeit goods. Generally I stick to "fufilled by Amazon" or otherwise first-party sellers, so that may have something to do with it. Maybe I'm not purchasing niche enough products to run into this issue.

Try buying an Apple charger or cable on Amazon (even sold by Amazon directly): https://9to5mac.com/2016/10/19/amazon-fake-apple-chargers-ca... https://www.forbes.com/sites/amitchowdhry/2016/10/23/apple-n... Apple has the clout to force Amazon clean up their listings, most manufacturers don't. Why does Apple have to coerce Amazon to do this, instead of them being proactive?

Or headphones.

Re: Jeff Bezos’ Annual Letter

#155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a common metric used in the Scrum methodology. You start off the "sprint" with a set number of "story points" (say, 30 points), and end the sprint with zero points. When you graph the team's progress over the course of the sprint, it should ideally form a linear, downward slope. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burn_down_chart

This kind of thing makes sense if you were doing something like digging a trench, where the progress can be linear because the task A is the same as task A - 1. Why would anyone think that given a variety of tasks that each would take the same amount of time?

The theory is that a developer can estimate the approximate difficulty of a given task relative to other tasks and thus give a coarse estimate of how long a set of tasks will take. One is supposed to use this estimate, compare it against the amount of work actually accomplished in a given period, and then project ahead against estimates work remaining to get an idea of when the project will be finished. This is intended to help managers set expectations with customers and cut or adjust features if the date is too far into the future.

Unfortunately, what most organizations actually do is use the progress estimates to try to bludgeon developers into working faster, with entirely predictable bad effects.

Re: Jeff Bezos’ Annual Letter

#156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agreed. As a long time prime user, it's been the rise in counterfeit goods that has really shook my unwavering loyalty to Amazon. I used to order everything on there, without thinking twice. Now, I'm much more careful about what I buy on there, and often just avoid purchasing on Amazon entirely.

I'm mystified by this personally. I frequently purchase from Amazon, and haven't(to my knowledge) received counterfeit goods. Generally I stick to "fufilled by Amazon" or otherwise first-party sellers, so that may have something to do with it. Maybe I'm not purchasing niche enough products to run into this issue.

Certain types of products are extremely commonly counterfeited. I would never consider ordering luxury goods like cologne/perfume/handbags, flash memory cards or sticks, or small mass-market electronics like chargers.

Due to the way Amazon commingles their stock at the SKU level, there is simply no way to guarantee that what you're getting is genuine, even if you order "sold and shipped from Amazon".

Even from an authorized retailer - the first thing I do with any flash card is fill it full of a test pattern using f3write, and then validate that it actually reads out fine. Counterfeiting of flash cards is absolutely rampant.

http://oss.digirati.com.br/f3/

Re: Jeff Bezos’ Annual Letter

#157
post #2

"A common example is process as proxy. Good process serves you so you can serve customers. But if you’re not watchful, the process can become the thing. This can happen very easily in large organizations. The process becomes the proxy for the result you want. You stop looking at outcomes and just make sure you’re doing the process right. Gulp." Seems like this is exactly the kind of issue companies like United Airlin…

Netflix also talks about it themselves: https://www.slideshare.net/reed2001/culture-1798664/49-Proce...

Re: Jeff Bezos’ Annual Letter

#158
post #22
post #2

"A common example is process as proxy. Good process serves you so you can serve customers. But if you’re not watchful, the process can become the thing. This can happen very easily in large organizations. The process becomes the proxy for the result you want. You stop looking at outcomes and just make sure you’re doing the process right. Gulp." Seems like this is exactly the kind of issue companies like United Airlin…

This is a surprisingly common trap to fall into. I worked at a startup in which the CTO criticized my dev team for not having a perfectly linear burn down chart. Every week in our retro we had the same discussion about how to improve the shape of our burn down chart; we tried putting higher valued stories at the front of the queue, involving QA earlier in the sprint, and cranking out 1 pointers mid week to tweak the…

Did you try reverse engineering the burndown?

Re: Jeff Bezos’ Annual Letter

#159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm mystified by this personally. I frequently purchase from Amazon, and haven't(to my knowledge) received counterfeit goods. Generally I stick to "fufilled by Amazon" or otherwise first-party sellers, so that may have something to do with it. Maybe I'm not purchasing niche enough products to run into this issue.

The issue is that the counterfeits look extremely close to the real thing, sometimes indistinguishable. It's the quality of the components inside that's far worse. A lot of names brands are having their reputations tarnished from this. Things I bought in the last year on Amazon that were fake: cookware, phone charger, headphones, power supply, phone battery, SD card I once used amazon almost daily so this is only a f…

What kind of headphones did you buy that were fake?

Re: Jeff Bezos’ Annual Letter

#160
post #40
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This comment seems to be well received based on the points. I think about this often and it drives me nuts that the two party system is the best we have. It's like we're trying to optimize an operating system at every level EXCEPT THE KERNEL. Suggesting that you don't buy into the two party system is met with skepticism, as if you're a closet supporter of one party. Or worse, that by not supporting a party you're imp…

Without runoff elections its always going to veer towards a two party system. It would work if we did two votes: vote first for who you want, then second vote for the best choice from top two.

Its actually more surprising regions haven't figured out they can create their own voting blocs and gain outsized influence. This happens in Canada with the Bloc Quebecois basically being Quebec's political party in Canada.

They trade votes on other things for concessions with Quebec. Scotland has done similar things.

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