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Atmospheric CO2 levels accelerate upwards

nationalobserver.com

441–450 of 522 posts

Re: Atmospheric CO2 levels accelerate upwards

#441
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Are Canada's CO2 stats material to global warming, or are they being over-dramatized because this is a Canadian publication? Canada has an extremely important role in the future of CO2 emissions, because it has some of the largest left resources of oil on the planet with its tar sands. And it's a particularly nasty one with an emission footprint far higher than "conventional" oil. Whether or not Canada will leave a…

TO add to this I believe at ~60$/barrel the oil sands become economically feasible. So we're not a big factor today but as soon as the easy fracking fields start to dry up and the oil costs rises a bit we're going to be right back in the game!

Suncor, one of the largest players in tar sands oil said in one of their earnings call transcripts that their cost was $30/barrel. I can dig it up if you need a citation, but it was right around the time the WTI dropped below $30.

Re: Atmospheric CO2 levels accelerate upwards

#442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> letting the future generations suffer... source?

Soil depletion: http://news.berkeley.edu/2015/05/07/soil-depletion-human-sec... Groundwater depletion: https://water.usgs.gov/edu/gwdepletion.html Antibiotic resistance: https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg23231044-000-antibiot... Shall I go on?

Yes, please! Because the only response I can think of to the list you've posted is "so what?"

Humanity faced a lot of problems in the past. Let me remind you just a few:

* multiple plagues decimating European population

* wheat rust (and unpredictable famines ensuing)

* guano depletion

However, we engineered our way out of them. I can't see why the problems you've listed are any different.

Re: Atmospheric CO2 levels accelerate upwards

#443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Ultimately it is the lack of spirituality in people that's killing the planet." Bad accounting is killing our planet. Neglecting important parts of the balance sheet creates perverse incentives.

If everyone was seeking enlightenment, there would be no incentives. Incentives are entirely constructions of the ego. Also, most of the posters seem ignorant to the fact that science and rationality are equally as dogmatic as the most fundamentalist religion. All beliefs are false, there is no argument against that.

"Enlightenment" as a goal has always felt like a sham to me. All understanding is approximate, but comparing science to religion is a false equivalency. Dogmatic belief ends in tautology, a thing is true because it's in the book and the book is true because it says so. A scientific belief is probabilistic and ends in open research questions, the theory of General Relativity models a subset of reality to a reasonable degree of confidence based on the evidence we have collected and makes no greater claims.

Science shows us there is no meaning, purpose, or grand truth. All life is a 4 billion-year old chemical reaction... born by chance in the universe's beautiful dance of physics, fueled by energy and bound by entropy. From dust to dust, the billions that came before us are as forgotten as those that live and those yet to be born.

But, yet, there is meaning.

We don't exist at the abstraction layer of quarks or microseconds, nor do we exist at the scale of galaxies or millennia. Questioning human existence at those levels is a philosophical divide-by-zero. We exist at the human layer, in the context of society, on the scale of under a century. Science gives us a solid foundational existential philosophy for higher order philosophy, which we can probabilistically derive from the evidence available and test as rigorously as any other aspect of our understanding.

Re: Atmospheric CO2 levels accelerate upwards

#444
post #95

We have to expand nuclear power. Many don't like it but at this point we have no other choice. Let solar drive the phasing out of nuclear reactors instead of coal power plants! Sadly in my country (Sweden) nuclear is not only taboo but it's illegal to perform research of the subject.. Laws passed by a severely misinformed "green" movement...

The problem with nuclear (at least in countries like the UK and USA) is not so much public perception or misinformation but the cost , particularly once eventual decommissioning and long-term waste storage costs are accounted for. It's increasingly difficult for nuclear projects to compete with things like renewables, inter-connectors, and carbon-taxed gas turbines. The one project that has gone ahead recently in the…

Yes, but as this article shows, there are much higher costs coming up for us. If we came to a consensus that this technology is important and devoted resources to this, we would see a lot of improvements in these parameters.

The problem is that neither the market nor governments work well for these long term decisions. We are spending lot of resources on trivialities due to our short term mindset.

Re: Atmospheric CO2 levels accelerate upwards

#445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Push as much co2 as possible into the air as quickly as possible to change global conditions enough to kill all plants at the same time This makes no sense. How exactly an abundance of CO2 will "kill all plants" given that they are thriving on it? Let's say temperature rises further, like +10C rise. Desertification may kill some plants, sure. In the meantime, huge swaths of Siberia and Canada will stop being permafr…

As quickly as possible is the key. In the past any changes in temperature were much more gradual.

What mechanism for "killing all plants" through sudden atmospheric CO2 increase do you have in mind?

Re: Atmospheric CO2 levels accelerate upwards

#446
post #75

I generally get funny looks and the feeling that people are imagining me with a toothbrush mustache and a comb-over when I suggest this: Wouldn't population control to an extent help slow the rate of emissions? Caps on births or higher taxes on family sizes, etc. I know political/moral/ethical issues would make it impractical but I don't think any potential solution is worth ignoring.

Most civilised countries already have a Just check the distribution of growth rates across the world:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_populatio...

Re: Atmospheric CO2 levels accelerate upwards

#447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what's your point? Everyone knows that there will continue to be life on earth. Everyone knows that noone will care 1e9 years hence. Are you suggesting we shouldn't care either? Are you just trying to be "more correct" than other people by pointing out literal falsehoods in things that they've said even though noone is actually taking it literally? (That qualifies as a strawman argument) Either way, your statement…

Exaggeration doesn't help the argument that anthropogenic climate change is a serious problem. I am not suggesting that we shouldn't care. Maybe you're right that there's still a chance of averting catastrophic impact if "we get our act together over the next decade". That's what I've been arguing for decades. But in recent years, the signs of increasing rate of change and positive feedbacks have become much clearer.…

> What are the chances that the US will cut CO2 emissions by 50% in a decade or two? I'd say that it's about zero.

I agree. But so does everyone else. So why point it out unless to argue in favor of despair?

Placing a sufficient price on CO2 emissions would probably do it. Odds of getting our legislatures to do this may be slim, but why not try?

> Exaggeration doesn't help the argument that anthropogenic climate change is a serious problem.

I'm not exaggerating. The EPA's forecasted temperature increase over the next 83 years is a confidence interval with upper bounds at 12F for the USA and 8.6F for the global average. (https://www.epa.gov/climate-change-science/future-climate-ch...) A change of that magnitude will have tremendous consequences:

- Changing rainfall patterns and foundering marine ecosystems might threaten public food and water supplies.

- The resulting economic fallout might create large migrations of people who will have to compete for space in regions of the world already overfull.

- Large regions of the country would become unpleasant to reside in on account of the temperature alone.

- Violence and poverty could become widespread.

These seem to me to be genuine threats that it is realistic to believe that people alive today might face in their old age.

Re: Atmospheric CO2 levels accelerate upwards

#448
post #407

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or you can internalise costs that normally get externalised. For instance, the government could make people pay a fixed-fee (i.e. a tax) for every tonne of co2 they emit. You then just set the fee at a level commensurate with the total damage caused by emitting a tonne of co2 and then sit back and let people's natural self-interest do the rest of the work. I think it's noble and commendable to act ethically, and prom…

I think social pressure is hugely powerful in defining peoples behaviour. That is why we act "ethically" out of a sense of peer pressure; it has little to do with the rightness of the underlying act. You see this with how smoking is viewed. People don't really care about the health effects to bystanders, they care about what others will think about them. That is human nature. The trouble with this kind of tax/fee is…

Even if this were true, that levying something like a $50 tax per tonne would result in greater incentive to pollute (because we've replaced a powerful social disincentive with a less powerful financial one), it would still very likely reduce co2 emissions.

Cost of energy is a significant cost in most mass-production processes (particularly in manufacturing). So, prior to the imposition of a carbon tax, when faced with the choice of purchasing one of two identical widgets, a 'co2 indifferent' consumer would choose the cheaper one. All other things equal, if widget manufacturer A can externalise some of their production costs (by polluting for free) and widget manufacturer B can't (or won't), widget B will likely have a higher price, even though their total social cost of production is lower. So there is more incentive to be a polluter.

The situation is reversed if a tax is levied on co2 pollution, with the rate set to internalise the cost of all external harm. Now the 'co2 indifferent' consumer will purchase co2 free widget B, because it now has the relatively lower price (prices are now more reflective of total social costs of production because the global cost of polluting has now been internalised).

I guess the other approach, that sidesteps this whole argument, would be to implement a 'cap and trade' scheme (my personal preference). The government auctions or allocates, say, 100,000 one-tonne permits: each permit allows a business to legally emit 1 tonne of co2. If a business needs to emit more co2, and what they produce is more valuable relative to what some other permit holder produces, then they can buy additional permits from this other 'less productive' business (and all businesses like it).

Under this latter scheme there's a hard cap on emissions. So people can feel as entitled to pollute as they like; they'll still be breaking the law if they do so without owning sufficient 'pollution permits'.

Might the latter sort of approach (cap and trade) address your concerns?

Re: Atmospheric CO2 levels accelerate upwards

#449

This is very simple, but something most of the HN people won't be able to do. STOP FLYING! Passenger numbers have gone up in a step change with CO2 count over the last 50 years, contrails compound the effect. The sad thing is - you will all look at this message and think. Why should I have to change? Why me, surely someone else must fix this? Don't wait for governments, don't wait for industry. Make individual choice…

I read in a local science magazine that (paraphrasing) no matter if all the cars were electric - as long as people keep flying, the amount of benzine produced would stay roughly the same, since making kerosene for the planes requires such huge amounts of raw oil. Benzine and other oil-based fuels were said to pretty much just a side product of kerosene production

Not sure, because refineries can crack larger hydrocarbons (kerosene) into smaller ones (gasoline/benzine) based on demand.

Re: Atmospheric CO2 levels accelerate upwards

#450

The message I"m getting is not that I have to prepare for something or change energy sources , it's that "our lifestyle is killing the planet much faster than we thought". CO2 levels is just one of a myriad of indicators that are off the scale now. By lifestyle I mean supermarkets and restaurants and iPhones and planes ... all the stuff that we're so proud of as a society. Winning, getting ahead, being number one, ou…

The planet is going to be just fine, the only thing that we can screw up is our ability to live on it in large numbers - which matters a lot to me for obvious reasons. Unless we're speaking about things that literally are extinction events for us , the larger organism doesn't really care about extremely short term fluctuations; in the scale of a few hundred million years the current climate change (or the temporary e…

> in the scale of a few hundred million years the current climate change (or the temporary existence of homo sapiens) doesn't make a meaningful impact.
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