Earlier quoted context omitted.
>I don't see ASCIBOOST as a real problem for Bitcoin. It often incentivizes miners to reorder or drop transactions until they hash to a specific value. (A certain mining pool is publishing a significant number of empty blocks.) Miners exist to verify transactions, and Bitcoin was designed with transaction fees in order to incentivize miners to include transactions. A competing force pushing miners away from including…
I believe it also probably incentivizes miners to create smaller blocks full stop, since dealing with transaction dependencies - something this glosses over - means that the cost will likely scale with the number of transactions. This rather undercuts the supposed block size scaling justification for opposing Segwit, to put it mildly.
Without protocol upgrades that include commitments to other parts of the block (E.g. committed utxo, committed bloom filters, stxo, segwit, fraud proofs, etc) you can simply compute 4096 variations of left- side of the tree by altering the coinbase transaction and 4096 versions of the right side of the tree by just substituting any transaction on the right side with alternatives. Then combine the two in to the ~2^24-ish needed for a collision with only a single operation per try which is independent of the size of the block.
The lack of a commitment gets you another effective sqrt speedup and makes all the other costs negligible.
Now, as far as permutation goes, if you want to permute instead of replace you need only permute 7 transaction on the right side to get the variations you need. Virtually no blocks with more than a dozen transactions don't have at least 7 on the right side with no dependencies at all.