Live data from Hacker News

Unreasonable Ineffectiveness of Machine Learning in Computer Systems Research

sigarch.org

31–40 of 105 posts

Re: Unreasonable Ineffectiveness of Machine Learning in Computer Systems Research

#31
post #3

> Driverless long-haul trucks are apparently just a few years away, and the main worry now is not so much the safety of these trucks but the specter of unemployment facing millions of people currently employed as truck drivers. No, no they're not. We have some lane tracking in good weather etc., but we are still decades (or more) away from full level-5 autonomy that would make drivers behind the wheel unnecessary. Bu…

Anyone involved in the creation or deployment of driverless vehicles should be applauded for ushering in a future we can all agree is sorely needed. The current world where every driver is an unpredictable human being is just too dangerous. I'm excited to leave it behind forever.

Re: Unreasonable Ineffectiveness of Machine Learning in Computer Systems Research

#32
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but we are still decades (or more) away from full level-5 autonomy that would make drivers behind the wheel unnecessary. Do you have a citation for that? I often see this asserted, and I see many assertions the other way. Whenever I personally see self-driving cars in the wild, I'm astounded at their effectiveness on uncontrolled access roads. What makes you think controlled access roads will be much more difficult…

> none of us in the automobile or IT industries are close to achieving true Level 5 autonomy - Gill Pratt, Toyota Research Institute http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self... > It will be 25 years before self-driving cars take off in America - Bill Gurley, Uber investor http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/06/bill-gurley-uber-investor-sel...

Is that industry consensus? Also, I think closed-access freeways are very well mapped, is level 5 needed to disrupt the trucking industry, or will level 4 do?

Re: Unreasonable Ineffectiveness of Machine Learning in Computer Systems Research

#33
post #3

> Driverless long-haul trucks are apparently just a few years away, and the main worry now is not so much the safety of these trucks but the specter of unemployment facing millions of people currently employed as truck drivers. No, no they're not. We have some lane tracking in good weather etc., but we are still decades (or more) away from full level-5 autonomy that would make drivers behind the wheel unnecessary. Bu…

Trucks driving autonomously on the interstate and being picked up by a human operator near city limits doesn't seem that far away. The trick will be to balance competition and the need to be first to market with the risk of accidents, because every negative PR hit for self-driving cars sets back the entire field politically.

Re: Unreasonable Ineffectiveness of Machine Learning in Computer Systems Research

#34
Perhaps the biggest hurdle in this regard is the approach to machine learning. Nearly everything I have seen on machine learning is a primer on big data followed by a series of algorithms on making the best and smartest decision upon that mountain of data.

This is completely the wrong approach. Machine learning can be done on a dime, provided the proper nurturing and environment, but you have to be willing to make some concessions.

First and for most you have to be able to write a program that can make a decision. A simple "if" condition is sufficient.

Secondly, that decision is open to modification by asserting the evaluation (the "if" condition) against its result. In this regard the logic is fluid opposed to a series of static conditions written by humans hoping to devise organic decisions.

Finally, the decision is allowed to be completely wrong. Wrong decisions are better than either no decision or the same decision without deviation. This is how humans learn and it should be no surprise that computers would benefit from the same approach.

The key to getting this right is bounds checking and simplicity. A decision must find a terminal point in which to stop improving upon its outcome, and a narrow set of boundaries must be affirmed to prevent unnecessary deviation. It is perfectly acceptable if some grand master must occasionally prod the infantile program in the right direction. This is also something that people do to other people who are learning.

If you can do that you have machine learning. You don't need big data to get this. You certainly don't need complex transportation machines or voice activated software to validate it. AI on a dime. If you can do it on a dime you can certainly do it with a multi-billion dollar budget and thousands of developers.

Re: Unreasonable Ineffectiveness of Machine Learning in Computer Systems Research

#35
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but we are still decades (or more) away from full level-5 autonomy that would make drivers behind the wheel unnecessary. Do you have a citation for that? I often see this asserted, and I see many assertions the other way. Whenever I personally see self-driving cars in the wild, I'm astounded at their effectiveness on uncontrolled access roads. What makes you think controlled access roads will be much more difficult…

> none of us in the automobile or IT industries are close to achieving true Level 5 autonomy - Gill Pratt, Toyota Research Institute http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self... > It will be 25 years before self-driving cars take off in America - Bill Gurley, Uber investor http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/06/bill-gurley-uber-investor-sel...

Gurley says 25 years until majority of trips with self driving cars in the US, and that's because of legal hurdles, not technological ones. I don't have time to watch the video with Pratt.

Re: Unreasonable Ineffectiveness of Machine Learning in Computer Systems Research

#36
I think this is because the kinds of problems that arise in system design are logical and symbolic in nature and the current crop of "AI" has no symbolic reasoning capabilities. All the current hype is about pattern matching. Very good pattern matching but just pattern matching nonetheless. Whereas when constructing a compiler or a JIT it's more like what mathematicians do by setting down some axioms and exploring the resulting theoretical landscape. None of the current hype is about theorem proving or the kinds of inductive constructions that crop up in the process of proving theorems or designing compilers and JITs.

For an example of the kind of logical problem optimizers solve you can take a look at: https://github.com/google/souper.

So I don't see how you can take the current neural nets and get them to design a more efficient CPU architecture or a better JIT.

Re: Unreasonable Ineffectiveness of Machine Learning in Computer Systems Research

#37
I guess computer is much more deterministic than what is required for ML to be useful.

ML, in a very inaccurate way, can be seen as:

1.We have observations and conclusions.

2.We don't know exact those observations leads to the conclusions.

3.The assumed procedure that leads the observations to conclusions is called model.

4.With enough pairs of (observation, conclusion), we can train a good model that is good enough to make good decision on future observations.

Problem for traditional computer science is that, the system is so deterministic that we know EXACTLY how it works on instruction level, while ML is good at dealing problem that is inherently probabilistic.

Re: Unreasonable Ineffectiveness of Machine Learning in Computer Systems Research

#38
post #3

> Driverless long-haul trucks are apparently just a few years away, and the main worry now is not so much the safety of these trucks but the specter of unemployment facing millions of people currently employed as truck drivers. No, no they're not. We have some lane tracking in good weather etc., but we are still decades (or more) away from full level-5 autonomy that would make drivers behind the wheel unnecessary. Bu…

Noone is entirely sure exactly when we'll reach level-5 autonomy, however, that doesn't matter for the specter of unemployment - the currently demonstrated level of availability seems clearly enough to put half of truck drivers out of work by all kinds of automation e.g. trucks self-driving on the regulated toll roads during time that drivers have their mandated rest; one driver supervising multiple trucks or driving a column of two-three trucks, etc. This alone is sufficient for both a significant tick in unemployment and as a downward pressure on wages of there low-skill workers that have a job.

The question of "replacing drivers" isn't about when machines will be able to do exactly what drivers do now, it's about when we'll figure out to achieve the same end result with much less labor, likely implementing significant changes to the process.

Re: Unreasonable Ineffectiveness of Machine Learning in Computer Systems Research

#39
post #3

> Driverless long-haul trucks are apparently just a few years away, and the main worry now is not so much the safety of these trucks but the specter of unemployment facing millions of people currently employed as truck drivers. No, no they're not. We have some lane tracking in good weather etc., but we are still decades (or more) away from full level-5 autonomy that would make drivers behind the wheel unnecessary. Bu…

Trucks driving autonomously on the interstate and being picked up by a human operator near city limits doesn't seem that far away. The trick will be to balance competition and the need to be first to market with the risk of accidents, because every negative PR hit for self-driving cars sets back the entire field politically.

This is an interesting idea. It has parallels with harbor pilots who guide ships through harbors and other hazardous waterways.

Edit to add: Taking the idea a bit further, why not have remote drivers who can handle these problematic bits?

Re: Unreasonable Ineffectiveness of Machine Learning in Computer Systems Research

#40

Perhaps the biggest hurdle in this regard is the approach to machine learning. Nearly everything I have seen on machine learning is a primer on big data followed by a series of algorithms on making the best and smartest decision upon that mountain of data. This is completely the wrong approach. Machine learning can be done on a dime, provided the proper nurturing and environment, but you have to be willing to make so…

You're advocating an evolutionary approach, correct? Doesn't such an approach need lots of examples to trial, before it generalizes broadly?

"Big data" is often shorthand for "lots of examples", no?

Post reply on HN